Hurricane Isabel Is Falling Apart/But Could Re-Gain Strength-Live Thread

NHC | 9-16-03 | my favorite headache

[My Favorite Headache]

Hurricane Isabel is falling apart and fast. Re-Con planes have been flying in the storm since midnight and the entire west quad of the storm has disappeared. The eastern portion of the storm has a wind around 110KTS. There is discussion that re-strengthening will occour within 24 hours though so this still remains a threat.

Pressure has dramatically risen as well. Discussion currently is Isabel making landfall in either Northern South Carolina or Southern North Carolina and a due north move after landfall. Thinking is a landfalling Category 2 minimal 3 storm.

[Gabz]

People in my area are NOT prepared for a hurricane to come up the bay.

There are a lot of people on this side of the Bay with the same problem. None of them, though, seem to be in Virginia and very few in Maryland. Most of those NOT prepared and pooh-poohing the entire thing are in Delaware.

I have been truly amazed at how serious the folks around here are taking this storm, especially the older folks who are native to the area. I can't even recall how many of them have told me I don't have enough water stockpiled for drinking purposes.

[y2k_free_radical]

thanks

[independentmind]

They may not be prepared because they're planning on leaving. All of the Charlottesville hotels have been completely booked for the later part of this week. I can't wait to see what a massive evacuation from Va. Beach/Norfolk to Charlottesville will look like.:(

[Gabz]

I can understand your scepticism - even though I don't share it.

When the old timers, who earn their living on the water and have for generations, are taking this seriously, you better believe I'm going to take this seriously. Not only will this effect their livelihoods - it is where they live.

When guys that work at NOAA and at Wallops Island are taking this thing seriously for the area WE live in - you better believe I'm going to be paying one heck of a lot more attention to what they have to say than anything I see on TV or even on line.

Scepticism regarding hype or not about what the national media puts out is one thing - I have a very healthy case of it and always have. However, ignoring the knowlege of those that live in a particular area about such things as this is another thing - it is beyond foolish. It could be borderline suicidal.

[CollegeRepublican]

It is good to hear that people on the lower shore are taking this seriously.

I just heard Jim the Mayor of Ocean City and he seems pretty blaise about the whole thing, kinda like he was upset about cancelling the Sunfest this weekend. It would not take much of a change in the track for this 'cane to hit y'all real hard. Good luck.

I have been listening to talk radio all day and yesterday. Yesterday they were almost in alert mode telling people to prepare for the worst, today since the downgrade to Category 2 the news is acting like we are only going to get thunderstorms on Thursday night and Friday.

[Gabz]

The sad thing is they are not preparing to leave, they figure it's going to hit NC and won't have any effect on them.

There is a certain type of people that have a certain type of arrogance that basically says "It hasn't happened in decades, why should I worry"

Gloria, which wasn't that big of a storm, was the last time one came anywhere near close to Delaware - most of these people weren't in this area in the mid 80s. They didn't see the damage done by that storm. I did.

While I don't go into any type of a panic mode, I take things like this seriously, as does my husband - he saw the devastation on Galevston Island from (I think) Alicia.

Precaution, preparedness, and prayers.

[patton]

My wife's name is Alicia - and my nieces are Isabel and Lily...

[Gabz]

These folks are taking this really seriously.

The Mayor of OC is a politician - but believe me, the Emerceny Management folks of OC are in no way being blaise about the situtation. And the Mayor can be as upset about cancelling Sunfest as he wants - he had nothing to do with the decision. The organizers of it had a meeting at 5 this morning and you can bet it was a hard, but right decision they had to make.

I'm not real thrilled about the local TV news around here either (WBOC out of Salisbury). Yes they are doing all the proper stories about preparedness, but their meteorologists are practilly being gleeful that the current track shows it will hit in NC. "That's good for us" - I could not believe when he said that.

I'm thankful for the "old timers" around here - I've learned that I am not over reacting in my preparations.

[dawn53]

My nephew and his wife left last Thursday (from Florida) to move to Newport News. They had already bought a house there, and now it looks like the storm could be heading their way.

They have a baby daughter named Isabel, so we've been saying that it looks like "Isabel" is heading for Isabel.

[wimpycat]

Coastal Communities Order Evacuations

POSTED: 12:26 p.m. EDT September 15, 2003

UPDATED: 4:46 p.m. EDT September 16, 2003

Evacuations, both mandatory and voluntary, are in effect along parts of the North Carolina coast in anticipation of Hurricane Isabel.

Information is listed in alphabetical order:

	HURRICANE SEASON JUNE 1 -NOV. 30 COVERAGE YOU CAN COUNT ON Watch WRAL Updates At The Top Of Every Hour WRAL Covers The Coast: Live Reports from Wrightsville Beach To The Outer Banks WRAL WeatherCenter Channel: Weather News 24 Hours A Day ISABEL FORECASTS Isabel Maps Latest Satellite Images Atlantic Hurricane Tracker Doppler 5000 2003 Storm Names & Maps Sign Up For Atlantic Tropical Activity Alerts RESOURCES PREPAREDNESS WRAL Hurricane Section WRAL's StormTrack 2003: A Preparation Guide To Hurricane Season N.C. Dept of Health & Human Service Tips (English & Spanish) Preparedness Resources PUBLIC SAFETY Evacuation Orders Coastal Evacuation Routes Hurricane Survival Checklist Progress Energy: (800) 419-6356 Duke Power: (800) POWER-ON (769-3766) INTERACTIVES Hurricanes 101 Take The Hurricane Quiz All About Flooding All About Tornados National Hurricane Center Gray's 2003 Predictions

Brunswick County:

• The Village of Bald Head Island has called for a voluntary evacuation begining Tuesday at 9 a.m.

Carteret County:

• Carteret County officials have issued a mandatory evacuation of Bogue Banks, including Atlantic Beach, Pine Knoll Shores, Indian Beach, Emerald Isle, low-lying areas and mobile homes effective 7 a.m. Wednesday.
• Access to Bogue Banks will be restricted at 7 p.m Wednesday. Proof of ownership must be presented to get on the island.
• Mandatory evacuations orders were issued Monday for Cape Lookout National Seashore on Harkers Island. The park was closed to visitors and ferry services were suspended Monday afternoon and until further notice.
• Shelters will open noon Wednesday (locations to be announced).
• Carteret County Schools closed Wednesday through Friday.

Currituck County:

• Officials in Currituck County issued a mandatory evacuation order Tuesday for its portion of the Outer Banks. Although no evacuation order has been issued for the Currituck mainland, citizens and visitors are being advised to prepare for possible evacuation.

Dare County:

• Dare County emergency management officials issued a mandatory evacuation order for the entire county effective noon Tuesday.
• All Outer Banks National Park public facilities and campgrounds are closed. All park areas, including beaches and beach access ramps, will close to the public at 2 p.m.
• It is believed that the northeast quadrant of Hurricane Isabel will cause damage along the oceanfront as the storm moves closer to shore. Ocean overwash is expected as early as Tuesday, particularly along the southern beaches. Soundside flooding is also expected throughout the county.

Hyde County:

• Hyde County officials ordered a mandatory evacuation of Ocracoke Island's 921 residents Monday afternoon. The number of trips by ferry to Swan Quarter, Cedar Island and Hatteras from Ocracoke were expected to increase on Tuesday.
• Hyde Emergency Management Director Dean Burbage said the order was issued after ocean swells were beginning to kick up, raising the possibility that N.C. Highway 12 would be washed out. That would leave residents of Ocracoke stranded.
• Ocracoke residents are advised to take their property tax records and an identification with them. They will be needed to return to the island.

Pender County:

• The town of Topsail Beach has announced a voluntary evacuation effective 1 p.m. Tuesday A mandatory evacuation notice will be issued if the hurricane continues on its present track.

Onslow County:

• Onslow Beach will be evacuated beginning at 8 a.m. Wednesday. The bridge will be closed at approximately noon.
• All non-essential Camp Lejeune base personnel and civilian employees will be sent home at noon on Wednesday. This is not linked to a particular weather condition, and will go on as scheduled.

Shelter locations aboard Camp Lejeune include:

• Camp Lejeune High School
• Tarawa Terrace 1 Elementary School
• Goettge Memorial Field House
• Stone Bay Gymnasium
• Camp Johnson Gym
• Overflow shelter: Stone Street Youth Center

State Parks:

• Closed: Jockey's Ridge State Park and Bear Island at Hammocks Beach State Park
• Closing noon Wednesday: Hammocks Beach, Merchants, Millpond, Fort Macon, Carolina Beach, Fort Fisher, Pettigrew, Goose Creek, Cliffs of the Neuse, Singletary Lake, Lumber River, Jones Lake and Lake Waccamaw
• Closing 8 p.m. Wednesday: Weymouth Woods, Raven Rock, Medoc Mountain, William B. Umstead, Eno River, Jordan Lake, Falls Lake, Kerr Lake and Morrow Mountain

Other Shelters:

• The Red Cross has opened shelters at Benvenue Elementary School in Rocky Mount and Fike High School in Wilson.
• Fort Bragg officials have said Lee Fitness Center on Longstreet Road has been designated as a hurricane shelter. Dahl Fitness Center, in the 1st Corps Support Command area, has been designated as an alternate shelter. The operating hours for the shelters will be decided Wednesday afternoon. Due to limited space, Fort Bragg shelters are available only to military or Department of Defense employees and their family members.

[wimpycat]

Hey, if any of y'all ARE thinking about gettin tarp or plastic sheeting or anything like that, you'd better get while the gettin's good. My local Wal-Mart was totally out of any sort of battery operated lighting and D-batteries. I didn't go in the food section because I think I'm OK on that. But there was a decent supply of duct tape and some plastic sheeting, and about a dozen or so tarps.

I don't envision people's homes being totally destroyed or roofs blown off in the Triangle area, but some trees could fall on a few roofs, and the tarp might come in handy.

[Gabz]

If it is any consolation, my best friend when I was a teenager was Donna (she was born during that one) and my favorite cousin's name is Alicia.

[STONEWALLS]

" I've learned that I am not over reacting in my preparations."

as an old timer myself I can assure you that you aren't over reacting.....these storms are nothing to mess around with......when I was a teenager Hazel put lower Main Street in Annapolis under water....people sunk their boats on purpose and refloated them after the storm.....figured it was cheaper to do that than to have them break loose and be smashed to bits.....Betsy was no walk in the park either......but that was back in the 50s and things weren't nearly so built up, so I figure the potential for destruction is much greater now.....it's been so long that we're waaay overdue for a big blow.....hope everybody takes care and comes thru this O.K......

Good luck to all!

Stonewalls

[Moose4]

Oh yeah. Strong summer thunderstorm cells can top 10 miles (52,800 feet). Some of the nastiest supercells can hit top out at 60,000 feet. There's no reason a hurricane couldn't, near the eyewall especially.

}:-)4

[My Favorite Headache]

LMAO...THE NERVE!! Trying to screw up a perfectly good CAT 5 storm at the time!!!! They can take this crap and shove it!

[Interesting Times]

Latest vortex info:

941
URNT12 KNHC 162213
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 16/2213Z
B. 28 DEG 02 MIN N
71 DEG 24 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2692 M
D. 65 KT
E. 316 DEG 115 NM
F. 056 DEG 103 KT
G. 317 DEG 052 NM
H. 956 MB
I. 10 C/ 3096 M
J. 15 C/ 3089 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C25
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF963 1713A ISABEL OB 24
MAX FL WIND 111 KT NE QUAD 2008Z. MAX FL TEMP 16C 093/9NM FROM
FL CENTER. SPIRAL BANDING EYE

Closed eye wall, pressure down another 2mb...

[Interesting Times]

im waiting on a convective flare up before I join the intensification crowd.

"The best lack all convection, while the worst are full of passionate intensity..."

[Recovering_Democrat]

Prayers up for the east coast.

[NCjim]

Did you notice that they replaced the graphic? I wonder if the original was someone's tongue-in-cheek humor...

[Molly Pitcher]

LOL! Stay safe, IT.