Posted on 09/16/2003 1:13:54 AM PDT by My Favorite Headache
Hurricane Isabel is falling apart and fast. Re-Con planes have been flying in the storm since midnight and the entire west quad of the storm has disappeared. The eastern portion of the storm has a wind around 110KTS. There is discussion that re-strengthening will occour within 24 hours though so this still remains a threat.
Pressure has dramatically risen as well. Discussion currently is Isabel making landfall in either Northern South Carolina or Southern North Carolina and a due north move after landfall. Thinking is a landfalling Category 2 minimal 3 storm.
Full Text HERE.
Still, the outflow has improved, pressure has stabalized, shear has diminished, and Aircraft radar is picking up eyewall formation. Add it all together and it spells reintensification, and she is entering even more favorable conditions. Not to mention she still has the gulf stream to cross.
I will continue to maintain Isabel is the next Hugo/Hazel, and she will be a cat III when she makes landfall.
000
FXUS61 KPHI 162041
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
440 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2003
TROP STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LTL EGG INLET S ALG THE OCEAN AND DE BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL ALSO BE IN AFFECT FOR OUR MD CTY WHICH BORDER CHESAPEAKE BAY. AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED ABT THE POTENTIAL TROP STORM FORCE WINDS OR GUSTS INLAND. QUITE HONESTLY WE PBLY COULD ALSO PUT A FLOOD WATCH...BUT WANT TO WAIT FOR LATER MODEL QPF GUIDANCE. WE WILL REISSUE THE ESF. PRELIM QPF AMTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3 TO 5 INCHES AND THIS WILL DEPEND UPON STORM TRACK AND FORWARD SPEED. PLEASE NOTE THIS IS SUBJECT TO THE ACTUAL TRACK ISABEL TAKES. THE FARTHER EAST...THE WORSE THE CONDITIONS...THE FARTHER WEST THE MORE BENIGN. PLEASE DO NOT GET FIXATED ON ANY NUMBERS ATTM.
THE GFS INIT PRETTY WELL WITH ISABEL AND ITS FCSTD TRACK IS VERY SIM TO THE CUR TPC TRACK. OTHERWISE...THE MDLS WERE NOT DEEP ENUF WITH THE TROF OVR THE ERN GRT LKS...ALTHO IT DOES NOT EXTEND ANY FARTHER S AND ITS INIT NR ISABEL IN THE SERN US SEEMS OK. OF EQUAL IMPORTANCE TO FCST TRACK...THEY SEEM ON LINE WITH THE RDG IN THE WRN ATLC AS THEY BLEND IN WELL WITH THE NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND SOUNDGS. THE H8 INIT SEEMS GOOD ALSO AND IF ITS ANY CONSOLATION THE TROP MOISTURE HAS BEEN FLUSHED AWAY FROM OUR CWA...FOR NOW.
BEAUTIFUL DAY TODAY...ANOTHER BEAUTY EXPECTED TMRW CERTAINLY THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM. IDEAL RDTNL CONDS EXPECTED AND WE WILL GO WITH THE LWR OF MDL GUID. WE SHOULD START SEEING SOME OF THE FIRST CI BANDS FROM ISABEL TMRW. OTRWISE...GUID MAX TEMPS LOOK A BIT TOO LOW BASED ON FULL SUN MACROS AND WILL BOOST THEM INLAND. ONSHR FLOW SHLD TEMPER THEM TWD THE COAST.
WOULD EXPECT MORE HIGH AND THEN SOME MIDDLE CLOUDS WORK INTO OUR CWA WED NGT. ENUF OF A GRAD TO NOT RADIATE TO THE DEW POINTS. IN ADTN CLOUDS SHOULD TEMPER THE MIN TEMPS.
WE ARE NOT INCLINED TO SLOW THE ONSET OF PCPN GIVEN THE STG LLVL WAA FCSTD BY THE GFS AND SINCE ITS FCSTD TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE TPC PROG. SO WE WILL SLOWLY BRING PCPN N THRU THE AFTN. WATER TEMPS ARE ARND 70 AND BLV A COMP BTWN THE WARMER NGM AND COOLER GFS IS IN ORDER. IN ADTN WOULD EXPECT TROPICAL DEWPTS TO BE BROUGHT INTO OUR CWA.
WOULD EXPECT THE BRUNT OF THE HVYST PCPN TO OCR THU NGT ACRS OUR CWA AS THIS IS WHEN THE STGST WAA IS OCRG AND ALSO PCPN HAS A TENDENCY TO FALL FROM THE CENTER OF THE TROP SYS NWD ONCE IT GETS INTO THE MIDDLE LATITUDES. WE ARE GETTING TWO BREAKS WITH RESPECT TO THE TIDES...ONE WE ARE NOT AT SPRING TIDE AND TWO THE OVRNGT HIGH TIDE THU NGT IS THE LOWER OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES. NEVERTHELESS THERE WILL BE A STIFF ONSHORE AND PBLY UP THE BAYS FLOW DURG THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. WE WILL REDUCE THE MENTION OF THUNDER AS STAB INDICES ARE NOT THAT UNSTABLE (BASED ON THEM WE WOULDN/T BE PUTTING ANY THUNDER IN AT ALL) AND IT SEEMS TROPICAL SYS LOSE THE THUNDER AGN IN THE MID LATITUDES. GIVEN THE CUR FCST TRACK IF CORRECT...WE WOULD STILL SEE TROPICAL STORM GUSTS IN MOST OF OUR CWA AND SUSTAINED TROP STORM WINDS AT/NEAR THE CST. THIS WILL CAUSE MORE THAN ENOUGH TREE PROBLEMS. CUR QPF PROJECTIONS ARE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES AND IF IT COMES TO FRUITION...WILL CAUSE FLOODING...ESP PLACES WHICH WERE HIT HARD YDA.
IPVG CONDS ON FRIDAY AS ISABEL LIFTS NWD AWAY FROM OUR CWA. SRN ZONES MIGHT EVEN SEE SOME SUN AT END OF THE DAY. WEEKEND STILL LOOKS DRY AND PLEASANT. NEXT CHC FOR PCPN ON TUE WITH THE NEXT CFP. WHL THE MED RNG MDLS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH TARGETING NC...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A JOG TO THE RIGHT TO BRING A STRONGER ISABEL OUR WAY. THIS IS STILL WI THE TPC MARGIN OF TRACK ERROR.
NOW IS THE TIME WHERE BEING PREPARED PAYS OFF. KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS. CHECK OUR WEB SITE...WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/PHI FOR THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION...AS WELL AS PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION IF THE HURRICANE THREATENS YOUR LOCATION.
WE/LL TRY TO PUSH ALL PRODUCTS OUT BY 515 PM.
.PHI... DE...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR DE ZONES 2/3/4. MD...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MD ZONES 8/12/15/19. NJ...TROPICAL STORM WACTH FOR NJ ZONES 21/23/24/25. HIGH SURF ADVY FOR NJ ZONES 14/26.
PA...NONE. MARINE...SCA FROM SANDY HOOK NJ TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ AND TROPICAL STORM WATCH ELSW FOR THE COASTAL AND BAY WATERS. $$ TFG
The point is, the pressure is no longer rising and is starting to drop. The outflow is now symmetrical and expanding, and on enhanced images you can see an eyewall starting to form again. I'm not saying that it's going to go back to a Cat 5, but there is a big difference between a middling Cat-2 and a strong Cat-3, which I think this storm could revert to prior to landfall - especially since it is now also starting to tap into Gulf of Mexico humidity streaming across Florida, which has displaced the dry air that was weakening the system.
For the people in her path, I sure hope you are correct and my feeling about her firing up is wrong. And yes you are right, Shep is an idiot.
I think the dry air has now been cut off and what passes for the eye is now enclosed by convection. And, if you animate the link you provided, you can see moisture streaming across Florida and starting to feed into the hurricane - which is displacing the dry air to the southwest of the storm.
I don't know what to think any more about this bugger.
The folks on Chincoteague are taking it very seriously - even before the watch was issued. The old-timers are seriously trying their best to convince some of the younger folks that live in trailers/mobile homes to head for friends and/or family on the mainland. And actively encouraging tourists to leave tonight or no later than the morning.
Says a lot about people of an area that relies primarily on tourist money.
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