Hurricane Isabel Is Falling Apart/But Could Re-Gain Strength-Live Thread

NHC | 9-16-03 | my favorite headache

[My Favorite Headache]

Hurricane Isabel is falling apart and fast. Re-Con planes have been flying in the storm since midnight and the entire west quad of the storm has disappeared. The eastern portion of the storm has a wind around 110KTS. There is discussion that re-strengthening will occour within 24 hours though so this still remains a threat.

Pressure has dramatically risen as well. Discussion currently is Isabel making landfall in either Northern South Carolina or Southern North Carolina and a due north move after landfall. Thinking is a landfalling Category 2 minimal 3 storm.

[Constitution Day]

Wow, that's terrible.

[ContemptofCourt]

It appears that the hurricane hunter has picked up teh formation of another eyewall....

[dirtboy]

Yeah, on that link you posted, you can see a new eyewall forming in the last couple of frames - and the eye shifted NNW in the process. That could alter the forecast track.

[CollegeRepublican]

Do you think that this will go back to Cat 3? I think that we should take a poll. Strengthen or weaken? Will it hit and where?

[Gabz]

But Dover during a race day would be about the last place I'd want to be in a decent hurricane.

Race WEEK in Dover is the last place I want to be even under the best weather circumstances - and I lived there for 21 years!!!!!

[Pyro7480]

GOES visible picture from 15 minutes ago

[PleaseNoMore]

If the eye shifts more NNW would that make Issy favor a Wilmington NC landing more?

[Howlin]

Here we go:

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2003

...ADDITIONAL WATCHES ISSUED...WARNINGS LIKELY TONIGHT...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH
OF CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA TO LITTLE EGG INLET NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING
DELAWARE BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH MARYLAND NORTHWARD.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET SOUTH
CAROLINA TO CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH
MARYLAND...AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET
TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA.

HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT FOR A PORTION OF
THE WATCH AREA.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 71.4 WEST OR ABOUT 570 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 275 MILES.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 959 MB...28.32 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE BEING
EXPERIENCED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC
COASTS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
THE BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...27.8 N... 71.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 959 MB.

FOR STORM-RELATED INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE...AND STATEMENTS FROM
LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Howlin]

Issued at: 4:33 PM EDT 9/16/03 (gateway).


Additional watches issued, warnings likely tonight,

At 5 pm edt, 2100z, a tropical storm watch has been issued north of chincoteague virginia to little egg inlet new jersey, including delaware bay. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 36 hours.

At 5 pm edt, 2100z, a tropical storm watch has been issued for the chesapeake bay from north beach maryland northward.

A hurricane watch remains in effect from little river inlet south carolina to chincoteague virginia, including the pamlico and albemarle sounds, chesapeake bay south of north beach maryland, and the tidal potomac. A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 36 hours.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect south of little river inlet to south santee river south carolina.

Hurricane warnings will likely be required tonight for a portion of the watch area.

At 5 pm edt, 2100z, the center of hurricane isabel was located near latitude 27.8 north, longitude 71.4 west or about 570 miles south-southeast of cape hatteras north carolina.

Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph, with higher gusts. Some increase in strength is possible prior to landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 160 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 275 miles.

The minimum central pressure measured by an air force hurricane hunter aircraft was 959 mb, 28.32 inches.

Large ocean swells and dangerous surf conditions are being experienced along portions of the u.s. Southeast and mid-atlantic coasts. These conditions will also continue over portions of the the bahamas for the next few days.

Repeating the 5 pm edt position, 27.8 n, 71.4 w. Movement toward, north-northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds, 105 mph. Minimum central pressure, 959 mb.

For storm-related information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local weather office, and statements from local emergency management officials.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at 8 pm edt followed by the next complete advisory at 11 pm edt.

[ContemptofCourt]

Entending the watches north.....Izzy is getting her act together. Should be interesting tommorrow.

[dirtboy]

No change in wind speed or pressure in the 5pm advisory just posted.

[dirtboy]

If the eye shifts more NNW would that make Issy favor a Wilmington NC landing more?

It would do the opposite - shift landfall closer to Hatteras.

[dirtboy]

I think the storm is tapping into a flow off the Gulf of Mexico, and that could push the storm in a slightly more northward direction, as well as intensify it.

[Pyro7480]

She's getting her act together again looks like...

[Is2C]

Washington Post article snippets:

"But for NOAA storm chasers hoping to further refine the agency's understanding and prediction of hurricanes, Isabel, he says, is a research dream.

"They are drooling . . . over what they're seeing in this storm -- things they've never seen in a hurricane before."

Like what?

"Well, last Friday they flew into the storm and photographed 'spokes' in the eye" -- streaks of cloud radiating from the center like spokes in a wagon wheel. "We don't know yet what they are or what they mean. But we're getting tons and tons of data" due to the opportunity to observe the Big One of hurricanes over an extended period of time.

When the Big One comes ashore, of course, it speaks with the voice of the Old Testament God. The one who gave the prophet Ezekiel the vision of the "big wheel."

"I started to use the term 'catastrophic' flooding and we decided against it," said NOAA public information officer Greg Hernandez. "We don't want to make people hysterical."

Though the storm's high winds will decay rapidly as it moves ashore, the spring and summer have been so wet along the Eastern Seaboard, Hernandez says, that the soil is saturated and all the streams are essentially full. Though every hurricane is different and researchers are still gauging Isabel's rainfall potential, such a storm would normally drop eight to 10 inches of rain during its passage, Kaiser said.

In addition, Isabel's forecast track -- in which Kaiser says NOAA has a high degree of confidence -- puts the Virginia capes in the storm's northeast -- or most dangerous -- quarter. This will allow the counterclockwise winds around the storm's eye to force a storm surge of 20 feet or more up the Chesapeake Bay and its tributary rivers. The bay's vast expanse of wetland will absorb some of this, but some sort of storm surge, Kaiser says, will be pushed all the way to the bay's tidal limits. On the Potomac River, this means Washington."

[ContemptofCourt]

No, but I think it is done weakening...is survived the shear, the trough, and the dry air it sucked in...now it is moving into the gulf stream and it looks much healthier.

[Howlin]

Take a look at this and tell me what you think:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=14508

[woodcraftsman]

I'm telling you all - no one believes me, but this company in Florida is killing this hurricane with their product.
Check them out http://www.dynomat.com
They have done it time and time again with other storms.
I don't agree with what they are doing!

[CollegeRepublican]

Are you thinking that this might skirt Hatteras and come up the Chesapeake like the models showed this weekend?

[ContemptofCourt]

Yeah, I read that...a bit optimistic I think. I think that the original prediction for a strong 2/weak 3 is valid. If it is moving at 30 mph once it hits, that will be bad for wind damage (but good for the rain forecast). Also, Izzy appears to be tracking right on the models....NNW for another 24 hrs, then a hook NW into NC.