Hurricane Isabel Is Falling Apart/But Could Re-Gain Strength-Live Thread

NHC | 9-16-03 | my favorite headache

[My Favorite Headache]

Hurricane Isabel is falling apart and fast. Re-Con planes have been flying in the storm since midnight and the entire west quad of the storm has disappeared. The eastern portion of the storm has a wind around 110KTS. There is discussion that re-strengthening will occour within 24 hours though so this still remains a threat.

Pressure has dramatically risen as well. Discussion currently is Isabel making landfall in either Northern South Carolina or Southern North Carolina and a due north move after landfall. Thinking is a landfalling Category 2 minimal 3 storm.

[Howlin]

Over me???

[Vigilantcitizen]

"Take a look at this and tell me what you think:"

Funny, I was just about to post the same analysis.

This guy lives in my town, I'm going to find out who he is.

[Howlin]

That's an interesting site.

[Dog]

Turn on CNN everyone ....a new forecast is coming out.

[Gabz]

Jury Duty Ping!?!?

I have to laugh at that line.

In today's mail was a summons for my husband to appear for jury duty next month. It was forwarded by the Post Office to our new address.

We live in Virginia and the State of Delaware is demanding he appears for Jury Duty????????

I'm still laughing about it!!!!

[dirtboy]

Are you thinking that this might skirt Hatteras and come up the Chesapeake like the models showed this weekend?

I don't think it will track quite that far eastward, but I think the actual track will be somewhat east of the current one. And, as big as the windfield will be with this system, there will be hurricane force winds up into Maryland and a very large fetch for generating very large waves to the right of landfall.

[Howlin]

It's already out!

[Dog]

Tropical Storm watch just issued..... all the way up to Little Egg Inlet in NJ...

[djf]

Timing here is crucial as well. There is only a six hour window between high and low tides. A minor change in it's speed could have a dramatic effect on when it arrives.

[Vigilantcitizen]

"That's an interesting site."

Yes it is. I'm going to have to look up and thank the FReeper I got the link from on yesterdays thread.

[dennis1x]

5pm discussion out...noted weakening has ended..at least temporarily...no deep convection....


the convection is the key......until some fires up and wraps around...no strengthening will occur.

[Vigilantcitizen]

"HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES."

Just damn.

[CollegeRepublican]

It seems like people here in the know and others on weather forums feel like this Hurricane is going to reintensify, but here in Baltimore the news on the radio is acting like all is now well that the wind speeds dropped from 160 to 105. I have a feeling that they will get back up to almost 130 mph before landfall. I think alot of people in Virginia and Maryland could be in alot of trouble if this thing tracks further north than they are predicting before the eventual swing to the North West; especially if it intensifies before landfall to a CAT 3 or even 4.

[Orion78]

The picture you posted was above the eye looking down, this picture, (not of hurricane Isabel), is from INSIDE the eye looking up. There are more pictures taken from inside the eye of a Hurricane at this LINK.

[labowski]

I thought I heard Shepard Smith last night say the hurricane was 10 miles tall?????? Is that even possible???? Anyone.....

[Pyro7480]

It looks like the hurricane is becoming more organized though. She's becoming more symetrical.

[firewalk]

.

[dennis1x]

those in the know (NHC) predict very little in the way of reintensification......conditions just arent overly favorable....nor is climatology.

there are drama hacks and hurricane rooters who always predict catastrophic strengthening and course changes though ;)

[dirtboy]

Pressure dropped a millibar - system is starting to re-intensify. This could end up being a worst-case scenario - the system drops below major hurricane level for a few hours, folks relax, and then it re-intensifies and makes a very slight change in track that will significantly increase the size of the affected area - if it were to skim just to the west of the Outer Banks, it would still whump Norfolk and Ocean City, and then pass just to the west of Washington DC - that would be the worst possible track, IMO. Anyone above the NC border is not used to these suckers.

[hillarynot]

That's only 52,000 ft. Many Thunderstorm tops are 75,000 - 80,000 feet, so sure -- it's probably taller than that.