000
FXUS61 KPHI 162041
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
440 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2003
TROP STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LTL EGG INLET S ALG THE OCEAN AND DE BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL ALSO BE IN AFFECT FOR OUR MD CTY WHICH BORDER CHESAPEAKE BAY. AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED ABT THE POTENTIAL TROP STORM FORCE WINDS OR GUSTS INLAND. QUITE HONESTLY WE PBLY COULD ALSO PUT A FLOOD WATCH...BUT WANT TO WAIT FOR LATER MODEL QPF GUIDANCE. WE WILL REISSUE THE ESF. PRELIM QPF AMTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3 TO 5 INCHES AND THIS WILL DEPEND UPON STORM TRACK AND FORWARD SPEED. PLEASE NOTE THIS IS SUBJECT TO THE ACTUAL TRACK ISABEL TAKES. THE FARTHER EAST...THE WORSE THE CONDITIONS...THE FARTHER WEST THE MORE BENIGN. PLEASE DO NOT GET FIXATED ON ANY NUMBERS ATTM.
THE GFS INIT PRETTY WELL WITH ISABEL AND ITS FCSTD TRACK IS VERY SIM TO THE CUR TPC TRACK. OTHERWISE...THE MDLS WERE NOT DEEP ENUF WITH THE TROF OVR THE ERN GRT LKS...ALTHO IT DOES NOT EXTEND ANY FARTHER S AND ITS INIT NR ISABEL IN THE SERN US SEEMS OK. OF EQUAL IMPORTANCE TO FCST TRACK...THEY SEEM ON LINE WITH THE RDG IN THE WRN ATLC AS THEY BLEND IN WELL WITH THE NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND SOUNDGS. THE H8 INIT SEEMS GOOD ALSO AND IF ITS ANY CONSOLATION THE TROP MOISTURE HAS BEEN FLUSHED AWAY FROM OUR CWA...FOR NOW.
BEAUTIFUL DAY TODAY...ANOTHER BEAUTY EXPECTED TMRW CERTAINLY THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM. IDEAL RDTNL CONDS EXPECTED AND WE WILL GO WITH THE LWR OF MDL GUID. WE SHOULD START SEEING SOME OF THE FIRST CI BANDS FROM ISABEL TMRW. OTRWISE...GUID MAX TEMPS LOOK A BIT TOO LOW BASED ON FULL SUN MACROS AND WILL BOOST THEM INLAND. ONSHR FLOW SHLD TEMPER THEM TWD THE COAST.
WOULD EXPECT MORE HIGH AND THEN SOME MIDDLE CLOUDS WORK INTO OUR CWA WED NGT. ENUF OF A GRAD TO NOT RADIATE TO THE DEW POINTS. IN ADTN CLOUDS SHOULD TEMPER THE MIN TEMPS.
WE ARE NOT INCLINED TO SLOW THE ONSET OF PCPN GIVEN THE STG LLVL WAA FCSTD BY THE GFS AND SINCE ITS FCSTD TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE TPC PROG. SO WE WILL SLOWLY BRING PCPN N THRU THE AFTN. WATER TEMPS ARE ARND 70 AND BLV A COMP BTWN THE WARMER NGM AND COOLER GFS IS IN ORDER. IN ADTN WOULD EXPECT TROPICAL DEWPTS TO BE BROUGHT INTO OUR CWA.
WOULD EXPECT THE BRUNT OF THE HVYST PCPN TO OCR THU NGT ACRS OUR CWA AS THIS IS WHEN THE STGST WAA IS OCRG AND ALSO PCPN HAS A TENDENCY TO FALL FROM THE CENTER OF THE TROP SYS NWD ONCE IT GETS INTO THE MIDDLE LATITUDES. WE ARE GETTING TWO BREAKS WITH RESPECT TO THE TIDES...ONE WE ARE NOT AT SPRING TIDE AND TWO THE OVRNGT HIGH TIDE THU NGT IS THE LOWER OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES. NEVERTHELESS THERE WILL BE A STIFF ONSHORE AND PBLY UP THE BAYS FLOW DURG THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. WE WILL REDUCE THE MENTION OF THUNDER AS STAB INDICES ARE NOT THAT UNSTABLE (BASED ON THEM WE WOULDN/T BE PUTTING ANY THUNDER IN AT ALL) AND IT SEEMS TROPICAL SYS LOSE THE THUNDER AGN IN THE MID LATITUDES. GIVEN THE CUR FCST TRACK IF CORRECT...WE WOULD STILL SEE TROPICAL STORM GUSTS IN MOST OF OUR CWA AND SUSTAINED TROP STORM WINDS AT/NEAR THE CST. THIS WILL CAUSE MORE THAN ENOUGH TREE PROBLEMS. CUR QPF PROJECTIONS ARE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES AND IF IT COMES TO FRUITION...WILL CAUSE FLOODING...ESP PLACES WHICH WERE HIT HARD YDA.
IPVG CONDS ON FRIDAY AS ISABEL LIFTS NWD AWAY FROM OUR CWA. SRN ZONES MIGHT EVEN SEE SOME SUN AT END OF THE DAY. WEEKEND STILL LOOKS DRY AND PLEASANT. NEXT CHC FOR PCPN ON TUE WITH THE NEXT CFP. WHL THE MED RNG MDLS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH TARGETING NC...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A JOG TO THE RIGHT TO BRING A STRONGER ISABEL OUR WAY. THIS IS STILL WI THE TPC MARGIN OF TRACK ERROR.
NOW IS THE TIME WHERE BEING PREPARED PAYS OFF. KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS. CHECK OUR WEB SITE...WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/PHI FOR THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION...AS WELL AS PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION IF THE HURRICANE THREATENS YOUR LOCATION.
WE/LL TRY TO PUSH ALL PRODUCTS OUT BY 515 PM.
.PHI... DE...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR DE ZONES 2/3/4. MD...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MD ZONES 8/12/15/19. NJ...TROPICAL STORM WACTH FOR NJ ZONES 21/23/24/25. HIGH SURF ADVY FOR NJ ZONES 14/26.
PA...NONE. MARINE...SCA FROM SANDY HOOK NJ TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ AND TROPICAL STORM WATCH ELSW FOR THE COASTAL AND BAY WATERS. $$ TFG