Hurricane Isabel Now Expected To Hit The United States

National Hurricane Center ^ | 9/14/03 | NHC

[I_love_weather]

Sorry for the caps...this is the way they post these things

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.

ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

Five Day Forecast Map

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif

[independentmind]

Are you hearing alot about this on local news? I am originally from South Jersey, and my impression is that it hasn't received much attention from the Philadelphia stations.

[Dog]

I'm paying attention to TWC and the National Hurricane Center..

[oceanview]

they likely are seeing that by the time they can get a firm track on where it will move ashore, it will already be too late to issue evacuation warnings given the population density in the affected areas.

not everyone can evacuate, and I guess its hard to really explain to people that not everyone should. on long island where I am for example, the "evacuation" of the south shore likely involves a move 15-20 miles north. there really isn't anyplace else to go on long island. but someone on long island who is already 15-20 miles from the coast, should be staying put.

[oceanview]

the NYC stations are giving alot of coverage on the 6PM news.

[timetogo]

Where on LI are you? I'm in Hicksville. How does Isabel look for the LI area?

[U S Army EOD]

I didn't say it would be fun. But I had three anchors out and plenty of scope. One of them was a 45lb COR with 250 ft of solid chain out. We also took as much off the deck and rigging to cut down windage. We also watched the barometer so we could tell when the wind shift was coming and kept power on the help relieve the stress on the anchors. We kept a deck watch to make sure no other boats were dragging into us. One thing you will note in almost all the storm pictures is that the well built sailboats are always intact after the storms are over. Never, never, never stay in the marina. You try to go up a river as far as possible.

[My Favorite Headache]

Yes he did...and with good reason. Where this storm is headed people are not used to this kind of thing. People in PA are not used to what will probably be at the time of impact there a CAT 3 storm. It should remain a 4 at least for the first 3 hours of landfall.

I am very very surprised it is going to take this track.

[oceanview]

well right now, if the track remains, we'll get tropical storm winds on LI. which is no big deal. i'm right near the water myself on the south shore, I expect some storm surge, but no blow out. but if the track moves north, I can't stay here, you should be OK in Hicksville, but LIPAs ability to keep the power on will be a nightmare.

[11th_VA]

WOW - Check this out: OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 36.5N 76.0W (That's NC/VA Capes) MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

But here's the real suprise:

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 43.5N 78.0W...INLAND (That's Scranton, PA) MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

So in the DC area look for winds probably more than 35 KT sustained - how much more is the question.

[oceanview]

new model came in (too bad we can't save these as snapshots so we can see them changing, this is also in post #369): note one model now reflecting that commentary about a more westward track, resulting in landfall further south, looks like NC, not sure what city is there.

[CobaltBlue]

You can save the image to your own server and link to it there, if you want to keep it.

[SheLion]

Did you just hear Max Mayfield just now on CNN....he just said there could be a major loss of life from this storm .......he was as serious as I have ever seen him.

I heard him too. Was flipping channels when I came across Max giving his feelings about this hurricane. He said Major Loss Of Life. Pretty nasty, I think.......I live in northern Maine, so I'm sure we will get something from it as well..it's a biggy.

[U S Army EOD]

Each time they make a new forecast it is always further south. Lets face it, we are fixing to take a major hit and it will create a disruption on the entire east coast. If you are not where the hit comes then the utility companies will be going somewhere to help repair the damage. It is time for the Red Cross and whoever to get ready for this one. We need to start planning right now on how the lucky ones can help out the unlucky ones.

[djf]

Isn't 130 KT like 140+MPH? Ain't exactly a "gust" in my book!

[TrappedInLiberalHell]

The NOGAPS in that track appears to show landfall near Wilmington, NC. Of course, by later tonight, that graphic will update, and all may change.

[Husker24]

Yea, what the hell is a KT?

[Windcatcher]

(shudder). That green one's got me concerned. It passes right over my head...

[djf]

Knots, I think. Nautical miles per hour

[Windcatcher]

KT = Knot = 1 nautical mile per hour.

A nautical mile is longer than a statute mile:

1 statute mile = 5,280 feet
1 nautilcal mile = 6,076 feet (roughly 2,000 yards).

[Stefan Stackhouse]

Approximately 3 times per century or so, a powerful hurricane hits the Carolina coast head on, punches far inland over the mountains, and dumps a foot or two of rain in 24 hours in WNC, causing major, major flooding (mountain valleys make excellent natural funnels). It isn't looking right NOW like Isabel will be one to do this, but the next 24-36 hours will be critical.