Posted on 09/14/2003 8:52:00 AM PDT by I_love_weather
Sorry for the caps...this is the way they post these things
THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.
ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.
FORECASTER STEWART
Five Day Forecast Map
http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif
anticipated drudge headline: "it rains in france, 460,000 killed."
dep
did you ever say that you wished you lived closer to work?
dep
Yes, as a matter of fact. LOL!
I haven't spent much time near the ocean, but I thought it quite frightening when we went to Ocean City for a weekend and saw signs that said, 'Hurricane evacuation route' and we were on a road that was a tiny little sandbar.
With the kind if flooding we can get in PA .. most times it's better to live up on a hill. But the winds from Isabelle sure could knock down a few trees also
Don't forget that President Bush will be to blame.
Fortunately, our tree tops should be far enough away from the house... I hope...
I think that may be true of lesser hurricanes and tropical storms, but a cat 5 has the potential to cause much worse problems than several inches of rain would. Betsy flooded my neighborhood with 8 feet (yes feet!) of water. That flooding wasn't due to rainfall, but due to the Industrial Canal's levee breaking because of the storm surge.
There were areas where the water was even higher. People died because they tried to escape the rising water by getting in their attics, which filled with water.
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I wish I could say the same ..
Sounds like it may be one wild ride
Get out of Israel's way Bush, Arafat needs to die ASAP. This is no time to support Palis.
Simon the Sourcerer is always fooling someone.
Let me see if I got this straight, an Ouiji board is evil, the work of the devil, but if one takes that Ouiji piece and instead of moving it over the board one moves it over a map of Israel, it is God sending a message?
I recommend selecting "every fourth"
The page will expire in about 10 minutes, so the link probably won't work after that.
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