Hurricane Isabel Now Expected To Hit The United States

National Hurricane Center ^ | 9/14/03 | NHC

[I_love_weather]

Sorry for the caps...this is the way they post these things

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.

ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

Five Day Forecast Map

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif

[StriperSniper]

68 degree water just north of hatteras all the way north according to the buoy reports.

That's the near shore buoys, check out the Hotel, Station 44004, 81.3F. And if you look at the edge of the shelf(the 300-3000' lines), the water is in the mid to high 70s, and it looks like some warmer water is spinning off the Gulf Stream heading inshore. On the satellite map that 'worm' shaped trench at the 300' line is the Hudson Canyon which is about a 100 mile run from Sandy Hook. Also, if you look at the recent history at the Hotel Buoy, it's trending up, a bit. This is right at the peak water water temp time offshore of Jersey. Out at the Hudson Canyon, the water temps stay above 70 for the most part until December. It can be snowing on land, but if you run to the Canyon, you can catch Tuna and Mahi in shirtsleeves sometimes until or after Christmas.

[StriperSniper]

Oops! forgot the URL on the edge of the shelf(the 300-3000' lines),

[StriperSniper]

The links to main pages for the buoys and satpics are in Post#350

[dixie sass]

Y'all got everything stowed?
1. Lashed down?

2. Plyboard for the windows?

3. Clear the yard, porch and driveway of any and everything because they can become missiles and kill or damage. This includes making sure that dead branches are cleared. If your neighbor is away do the same for them.

4. Do not leave your pets out. Make sure that they are in the house with you and have an adequate supply of food for them.

5. Stock up on canned goods. Items that won't spoil. Don't worry about getting meats or other perisables because they won't last and you will have no way to store them. SPAM time again, boys and girls!

6. If you don't have a grill or hibachi, get one.

7. Use paper plates and cups and plastic utensils, you don't won't to use up your supply of water by washing dishes.

7. Stock up on water. At the minimum have three gallons per person per day. If you have a pet make that five. Use the water strictly for cooking and drinking. One gallon for flushing the toilets.

8. After the water is back on, you will be instructed to use clorox for several days maybe weeks to make sure that y'all don't get disease. This will be only a drop or two in gallon of water. I don't remember the exact proportations, the authorities will tell you.

9. Do you have a generator? If you do, follow instructions TO THE LETTER! A generator will kill you - Carbon Monoxide Poisoning.

10. When you start the clean up process, watch for fallen power lines. Use the chain saw safely. Work in pairs. Don't try to be supermen and women. Most deaths occur after the storm from electrocution and power saws.

11. If a tree is down, don't let the kids play around the roots. Sometimes a tree will right itself and children can be trapped.

12. Remember this is a traumatic time, you will be without many, if not all of the things that you take for granted. There will be no gas, no atm, no anything that runs on electricity. It won't be for just a few hours, it can be for up to a month or longer. These storms don't stop just because they hit the coast, Hugo did damage to thirteen states. Ask Howlin, Charlotte N.C. had extensive damage.

13. You will basically going back to the days of your ancestors.

14. I cannot stress enough the safety issues.

[wimpycat]

Just got back from Wal-Mart. There's not ONE, SINGLE, SOLITARY D-battery in the whole store, not ONE DROP of bottled water. The whole water aisle is completely bare. Milk was already running low. There were NO battery operated camp lanterns, but there were plenty of propane-fueled ones.

I went there yesterday and there plenty of D batteries and water. I bought a 5 gallon jug of drinking water yesterday. I already had some D batteries, so I didn't buy any. We've got flashlights coming out the wazoo already, but today I bought a kids' "Adventure Lite" swivel lantern that runs on AA batteries and a regular, cheap, small flashlight that also runs on AA's. I bought more AA's in addition to the ones I bought yesterday.

Oh, and I bought a pair of those boots you were talking about. They were $12.97, I think.

[dixie sass]

I have heard just the opposite from people who tried it during Hugo.

[oceanview]

where are you? in NC or VA?

[dixie sass]

How tall are the pine trees?

[Heatseeker]

I'm in Denton, central part of the Delmarva Peninsula for the rest of you. Two big trees within 5 feet of the house.

Bad as that sounds, the folks in Dorchester and Talbot and Queen Anne Counties (MD) are really screwed if this thing tracks as most of the predictions are calling for. I'm 60 feet above msl but they are 5-8 above msl at best; most right along the water - and there will only be 2 ways off the whole Peninsula, Chesapeake Bay bridge and the bridges over the C & D Canal that bisects northern Delaware. (I can't see anyone trying the Chesapeake Bridge Tunnels!)

[CobaltBlue]

Way cool about the autograph from Clarence John Laughlin. I used to hang out with people who knew him, and went to parties in his apartment in the Pontalba Building, but never had the presence of mind to get an autograph.

Sounds like you are a fan of old things, too.

[Gabz]

Good advice Dixie sass.

[alnick]

Cool picture! We were in Baton Rouge during Betsy, which ripped up a huge live oak in the front yard and put it through the roof into my bedroom. Luckily we were all sleeping on mattresses in the center hall, away from all the windows.

I lived in New Orleans during Betsy. We did the same thing: We lived in a shotgun house, so we put mattresses in the hallway to avoid flying glass.

I was 7 at the time, but I remember all of us standing in the kitchen and the adults saying that the eye was over us and that we still had the back end of the storm to go through yet. Well, we went to sleep. Next thing we knew, people were banging on our doors yelling that the water was rising fast and that we'd better go to the two-story house next door, where a wild hurricane party was in full swing.

The water was already waist high to my dad (our house was raised three feet), so my dad made several trips to the house next door, carrying me, my brother, sister, mom and grandmother.

The next morning boats came and took us away.

I thought it was all great fun. If I'd have had to go through something like that as an adult I'd have been scared out of my mind.

[SuziQ]

Do your research on the 1938 hurricane of Sept 21

Don't remember what channel it was on, but I saw a show about that hurricane a couple of years ago. A woman was interviewed who had been very young at the time. She and her family were in their big three story house on the coast. The storm surge came in so fast, they had no chance to get out. They kept going up and up until they were in the attic just below the roof. At some point during the storm the house came loose from it's foundation and began floating. When they realized what had happened, her parents were terrified until the mother saw a channel marker and realized that they were heading for the mainland and not out into the ocean.

Scary! Thank goodness we now have the advance warning to get out of the path of these monsters!

[oceanview]

in addition to the native winds in that storm, it was also moving north at a very fast speed which added to the ferocity and speed of the storm surge. but in general, thats the way a storm surge looks like when it comes in. its not like a bath tub filing up. on occassions when it has hit us here on long island, I'd look out my window and everything would be fine, 2 minutes later, ocean waves were breaking in my street.

[dixie sass]

I live in Summerville. I remember Charlie Hall being forced off the set of Channel 5 News. Their studio was in the downtown area. Most of the reporters came here (about 17 miles from downtown) and could not believe that the storm came this far - dumb idiots! Locals could have told them storms don't stop at the beach.

[Doohickey]

5:00 maps out now:

[abner]

After that list, I think I'll just go visit my son in Moorhead, Mn.

[2nd amendment mama]

Thanks for mentioning rubber boots....will look for mine right now...I'm sure even if we don't take a direct hit here in Myrtle Beach it's gonna be soggy!

[Gabz]

The pines are between 30 and 50 feet tall I would say. But are more than 100 yards from the house.

The closest trees are about 25 tall and 50 - 60 feet from the house, but they are hardwood, not pine.

Hubby just reminded me that the trees closest to the barn are also hard woods, not pine.

However, the pines are close together and to the east of us, so will make great wind block. there is also another large stand of them to the south east.

[AnAmericanMother]

Sounds like you are a fan of old things, too.

That's me. My choirmaster kids me and says that I'm way too suspicious about anything after 1803 . .. but he's not far wrong.

Laughlin was quite a character. His wife was pretty darn neat too. I'm glad I met them both.

. .. and about this hurricane . . . << g >> My parents aren't out of the woods yet -- they're in coastal GA -- but breathing a bit easier I believe. I'll feel a lot more confident after another 8 hours or so . . .