Posted on 09/14/2003 8:52:00 AM PDT by I_love_weather
Sorry for the caps...this is the way they post these things
THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.
ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.
FORECASTER STEWART
Five Day Forecast Map
http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif
TO PARAPHRASE THAT SAYING ABOUT REAL ESTATE...THE THREE MOST IMPORTANT FEATURES IN THE TROPICS CURRENTLY ARE ISABEL..ISABEL...AND ISABEL. VERY IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE SIGNATURE HAS PERSISTED FOR DAYS WITH THIS SYSTEM. DAY 4 TO 5 HURRICANE GUIDANCE FROM NHC NOW BRINGS THE SYSTEM ASHORE SOMEWHERE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AS A CATEGORY III HURRICANE. THE IMPACT WHERE IT COMES ASHORE IS POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FROM WAVEWATCH MODEL OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS FOR BUOY 44009 SE OF CAPE MAY HAS HAD PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS VARIED FROM 36 TO 52(!) FEET WITH HURRICANE PASSAGE. HIGHEST OBSERVED WAVE HEIGHT EVER AT THIS BUOY HAS BEEN 25 FEET WITH THE DECEMBER 1992 STORM.
HISTORICAL PARALLELS INCLUDE THE 1933 CHESAPEAKE-POTOMAC HURRICANE. THIS STORM MADE LANDFALL NEAR THE VIRGINIA CAPES AND MOVED UP WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...YET PRODUCED HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS NORTHWARD UP INTO NEW JERSEY...SWEPT FISHING PIERS AWAY ALONG THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST AND CUT THE INLET WHICH NOW FORMS THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF OCEAN CITY MD. STORM SURGE FROM THIS HURRICANE PUSHED UP THE DELAWARE BAY...RESULTING IN A 5 TO 6 FT SURGE AT PHILADELPHIA AND WILMINGTON.
CURRENT HYDROLOGY SITUATION IS ALSO CAUSE FOR CONCERN. AS OPPOSED TO HURRICANE FLOYD IN 1999...ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE RATHER WET. RESERVOIR CAPACITY TO HOLD RAINFALL RUNOFF IS RATHER SMALL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ISABEL PRESENTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT INLAND WIND DAMAGE...DEPENDING ON ITS FINAL TRACK AND ITS STRENGTH AT LANDFALL.
GOOD NEWS IS FEW AND FAR BETWEEN...BUT THERE ARE A COUPLE ITEMS. STORM IS APPROACHING AFTER LABOR DAY...SO COASTAL POPULATION IS REDUCED. AND ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RUNNING A LITTLE LOWER AS WE MOVE TOWARD 3RD QUARTER MOON. AND THATS ABOUT IT.
USERS OF EXPERIMENTAL FORECAST GRIDS...BE AWARE THAT POLICY LIMITS MAXIMUM WIND STRENGTH TO 33 KTS OUT PAST THE 72 HOUR FORECAST. THIS IS TO REFLECT THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE HURRICANE FORECAST TRACK AT GREATER TIME RANGES. REFER TO NHC FOR THE OFFICIAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE STORM.
POP QUIZ...WHEN WAS THE LAST OFFICIAL LANDFALLING HURRICANE IN NEW JERSEY? SEPTEMBER 16TH IN 1903. THE 100TH ANNIVERSARY IS IN TWO DAYS.
NOW IS THE TIME WHERE BEING PREPARED PAYS OFF. KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS. CHECK OUR WEB SITE...WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/PHI FOR THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION...AS WELL AS PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION IF THE HURRICANE THREATENS YOUR LOCATION.
FINAL GRIDS/PRODUCT ISSUANCE WILL BE HELD UNTIL AFTER 415 PM. .AVIATION...POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILING AND VISIBILITIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN TROPICAL AIRMASS. .MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE NORTH OF LITTLE EGG INLET NJ TONIGHT FOR PERSISTENT SWELL. NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS NOW HIGHLIGHTED AS POSSIBLE IN CWF FOR THU/FRI TIMEFRAME.
SZATKOWSKI
Creek water or water saved in the bathtub can be used for flushing toilets. Of course, if you have a septic tank and the ground is saturated, the toilets probably aren't going to flush anyway.
Wonder how useful one of those small refrigerators you can plug into the car's cigarette lighter might be?
Ain't that the truth! We had some killer ice storms in north GA when I was a kid, and I can remember sleeping on mattresses in the hall and listening to the trees break and fall down. Every breaking branch sounded like a gunshot, and at one point they were breaking so rapidly that it sounded like machine gun fire. We were sometimes out of power for a week at a time (this was long before the days of buried cable) and my dad had an old Sears generator to run the furnace blower and a few lights. We helped haul gasoline in from the toolshed for the generator. We thought the whole thing was SO neat - we loved every minute of it and prayed for ice storms!
Now that I've been through Hurricane Opal as a grownup (we lost power here in ATL for almost a week, trees down all over the place, we couldn't get out of our street for two days) it's kind of lost its allure. I asked my husband, "Why am I not enjoying this? I used to love this stuff!"
Ah, the carefree days of childhood! I guess we had implicit belief that Dad was going to take care of us (after all, he always did. Who knew what heart-burnings were involved?)
Ain't that the truth!
Good time to mention hurricane parties. Something about the low pressure makes everybody giddy and happy. 'Course, in Louisiana it doesn't take much for people to get together and have a party. If you never experienced it, it's the strangest thing.
That's how I know when a hurricane is actually going to hit nearby, I start feeling light-headed. Also, you can tell when you look at the sky, the clouds start blowing by really fast hours before the storm gets there - "whoosh!".
If it's headed this way, my gasoline is going to be used hauling me & my stuff out of the way. ;-)
Was mostly wondering if people who had temperature-sensitive medications, etc., might be able to use something like that. Of course, they'll probably evacuate too.
Yeah, we know we're in trouble when we see Nash Roberts with his Marks-a-Lot on television.
The Chesapeake-Potomac Hurricane of August 23, 1933
The first hurricane of significance for northeastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia was also the most significant for the decade in northeastern North Carolina and for the century for the Norfolk area. The 1933 hurricane season was the most active of record for the North Atlantic basin with a total of 21 tropical storms and hurricanes. The Chesapeake-Potomac hurricane developed on August 17th and was the eight storm of the season and was considered a classic Cape Verde hurricane with a long track across the Atlantic basin. The storm attained Category 4 intensity on August 20th over the open Atlantic well northeast of the windward islands.
The hurricane moved in a general northwesterly course over the Atlantic until August 21st at which time the storm turned more west-northwesterly beneath a ridge of high pressure building into New England. The center of the hurricane passed some 90 miles south on Hamilton, Bermuda raking the British colony with 80 mph winds. By this time the storm had weakened to a strong Category 2 hurricane and had expanded greatly in size. The expansive area of high pressure over New England steered the storm toward the Mid-Atlantic region.
Warnings were broadcast for the approaching storm on August 22nd. Many residents in the Hampton Roads area recall increasingly rough surf conditions during the afternoon of August 22nd. Local jurisdictions in Norfolk and Princess Anne counties ordered evacuations of Ocean View, Willoughy Spit and the Virginia Beach oceanfront that evening. The hurricane made landfall in the Nags Head area shortly after 300 AM August 23rd moving in a northwesterly direction toward Norfolk. Click here to see a track of this hurricane.
A full fledged hurricane had not moved directly over the city of Norfolk since the great Norfolk-Long Island hurricane of September 3, 1821 (Ludlam, AMS). The hurricane of 1933 passed directly over South Norfolk (northern Chesapeake) and downtown Norfolk shortly after 900 AM as a minimal Category 2 hurricane in terms of storm surge and central pressure. Winds in the area reached those of a Category 1 hurricane with highest sustained winds of 57 mph in downtowen Norfolk....70 mph at the Norfolk Naval Air Station and 66 mph at Cape Henry. The peak wind gusts were 70 mph in downtown Norfolk....82 mph at Cape Henry and 88 mph at the Norfolk Naval Air Station.
The lowest pressure observed in Norfolk was 971 mb or 28.68" of mercury. This was the lowest pressure recorded in hurricane up to that date. The tide at Sewells Point reached a full 9.8 feet above MLLW. This was the highest tide of record for the area. The downtown Norfolk and Portsmouth gages recorded tide levels of 9.0 and 9.3 feet above MLLW respectively. The track of the hurricane along the western periphery of the Chesapeake Bay to the nations capital on the evening of August 23rd brought tide levels of 6-9 feet above MLLW over a large portion of the Chesapeake Bay and its tributaries. The ever narrowing tidal Potomac River crested at 12 feet above MLLW severely flooding Alexandria, VA and Washington D.C.
18 persons were killed in the hurricane in the states of North Carolina and Virginia with a majority of the lives taken in Virginia. Damages were in the tens of millions of dollars.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.