Posted on 09/14/2003 8:52:00 AM PDT by I_love_weather
Sorry for the caps...this is the way they post these things
THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.
ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.
FORECASTER STEWART
Five Day Forecast Map
http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif
Good advice? Do you have any idea how many people in NJ live within 50-75 miles of the coast? It ain't gonna happen.
As a matter of fact, I just got off the phone with my sister who lives there, and as of now, the storm has received little publicity. I suspect that will change within the next 24 hours or so.
According to NOAA, that's a waste of time (I just found this out reading their web page today. Before Floyd I taped all our windows - and spent the next year scraping it off.)
Should I tape my windows when a hurricane threatens?
No, it is a waste of effort, time, and tape. It offers little strength to the glass and NO protection against flying debris. After the storm passes you will spend many a hot summer afternoon trying to scrape the old, baked-on tape off your windows (assuming they weren't shattered). Once a Hurricane Warning has been issued you would be better off spending your time putting up shutters over doors and windows.
yeppers. on thursday i noted to friends that i had a feeling about this one that i had about gloria in 1985 (though gloria took a bigtime different track), and that's that the northeast is gonna get a piece, maybe all, of it. and right now i don't see anyway that that can't happen -- it's gonna funnel right on up. and if it hits a little to the south, that's the worst of all possibilities, because it will send water down long island sound, ala the winter storm of a little more than a decade ago, as well as give us bad wind, and for a long, long time. you don't want to be just north of where this thing hits.
this'un's scary.
dep
"It's looking more and more likely that this is going to be a big event for the eastern United States," National Hurricane Center meteorologist Eric Blake said Sunday.
"Landfall along the U.S Mid-Atlantic coast somewhere between North Carolina and New Jersey between four or five days (Thursday or Friday) is appearing more and more likely," Stewart said. "Little or no significant weakening is expected to occur until after landfall occurs."
In Wilmington, N.C., John Byrnes had already stocked up with 25 sheets of plywood Sunday and enough two-by-fours and screws to barricade the windows at his house, his in-laws' house and their downtown law office.
His household generator was ready, and he had an extra tank of propane gas to run appliances.
"We're all pretty much taken care of," Byrnes said. "We're in standby mode."
At midday Sunday, Isabel's maximum sustained wind speed had fallen by 5 mph to 155 mph -- 1 mph below the minimum for Category 5 -- apparently a fluctuation in strength common to major hurricanes, forecasters said. Experts had said it would be extremely unusual for Isabel to maintain Category 5 strength as it moved north over cooler water.
The storm was centered about 370 miles east-northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands, or about 320 miles north of San Juan, Puerto Rico. Hurricane-force wind of at least 74 mph extended 85 miles out from the center.
It was moving toward the west-northwest at about 12 mph and was expected to continue on that path into Monday, then turn toward the Carolinas, possibly making landfall Thursday or Friday. Forecasters note that hurricanes can be unpredictable, and long-range forecasts have large possibilities for error.
South Carolina went on an elevated alert status Friday.
In coastal Georgia, the Chatham County Emergency Management Agency urged residents to review their hurricane plans.
"It's still a long ways away, (but) we have to prepare as if it's coming here," said agency director Phillip Webber.
Even with plywood at its highest prices in a decade, Steve Myers had a steady stream of customers buying supplies to board up windows around Georgetown, S.C. At the 84 Lumber he co-manages, a sheet of half-inch plywood now costs about $20, but that's "cheaper than a $300 window," Myers said.
In Charleston, S.C., however, Joe Walker said he didn't evacuate in 1989, when Hurricane Hugo blasted ashore, and he probably won't leave if Isabel veers into his area.
"If it's going to come, it's going to come," Walker said.
The last Category 5 Atlantic hurricane was Mitch in 1998, which killed about 11,000 people in Central America. The last two Category 5 hurricanes to strike the United States were Andrew in 1992 and Camille in 1969.
I spent a year in Florence building back what Hugo tore down. There were thousands of homes severly damaged or destroyed, with some flattened.
Those who don't understand that are likely to experience the consequences.
We started praying a few days ago that this thing would avoid FL because of loved ones there. Now we are following it up for the sake of Charleston/Summerville kin and then NC family.
The people and businesses of NC and VA are likely to suffer enormous economic damage if more is poured on us because we are already over-soaked with water. There's no real way for "government" to take a hit.
May God have mercy on us all.
I agree with that, although hurricanes can turn pretty markedly if they feel like it.
I wouldn't be surprised if Georgia was in the crosshairs by tomorrow night. The forecasters are putting a lot more faith in this trough than I am.
I defer to their superior education in weather and years of experience, but they get it wrong more often than not.
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