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Hurricane Isabel Now Expected To Hit The United States
National Hurricane Center ^ | 9/14/03 | NHC

Posted on 09/14/2003 8:52:00 AM PDT by I_love_weather

Sorry for the caps...this is the way they post these things

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.

ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

Five Day Forecast Map

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif


TOPICS: Breaking News
KEYWORDS: hurricaneisabel
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To: Dog Gone
LOL--I don't know what the colors mean either. They just look cool...
301 posted on 09/14/2003 12:10:43 PM PDT by NautiNurse
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To: Howlin
indeed, that's where it is going.
302 posted on 09/14/2003 12:12:47 PM PDT by oceanview
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To: NautiNurse
Hey, we were talking FADS; I'm trying to find some rubber boots right now!
303 posted on 09/14/2003 12:12:59 PM PDT by Howlin
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To: Dog Gone
My suggestion right now for anybody within 50 miles of the coast from SC up to NJ is to go ahead and get motel reservations at least 100 miles or more inland.

Good advice? Do you have any idea how many people in NJ live within 50-75 miles of the coast? It ain't gonna happen.

As a matter of fact, I just got off the phone with my sister who lives there, and as of now, the storm has received little publicity. I suspect that will change within the next 24 hours or so.

304 posted on 09/14/2003 12:13:26 PM PDT by independentmind
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To: CobaltBlue
Even if you can't board up your windows, you can duct tape them putting the duct tape directly onto the glass or tape cardboard to the inside of the windows, which will keep the glass from going everywhere.

According to NOAA, that's a waste of time (I just found this out reading their web page today. Before Floyd I taped all our windows - and spent the next year scraping it off.)

Should I tape my windows when a hurricane threatens?
No, it is a waste of effort, time, and tape. It offers little strength to the glass and NO protection against flying debris. After the storm passes you will spend many a hot summer afternoon trying to scrape the old, baked-on tape off your windows (assuming they weren't shattered). Once a Hurricane Warning has been issued you would be better off spending your time putting up shutters over doors and windows.

305 posted on 09/14/2003 12:13:59 PM PDT by Amelia
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To: dep
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html

The same site but the water vapor loop.... gives a good indication of moisture bands as it approaches land.....
306 posted on 09/14/2003 12:14:16 PM PDT by deport
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To: CobaltBlue
I always felt the most impressive pictures of Camille were the two 600 ft ships that ended up on the TOWN side of route 90. Actually the thing that impressed me most is what happened to Ship Island. Ship Island is an island right off the coast were a fort was built during the civil war plus it was used for a prison. The island was a couple of miles long and about a mile wide. It had been charted as such when the white man first got to that area. During Camille IT WAS CUT COMPLETELY INTO.
307 posted on 09/14/2003 12:14:19 PM PDT by U S Army EOD (Feeling my age, but wanting to feel older)
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To: Howlin
I just have this feeling that she is going to get sucked into that void between the high right up north and the low coming from the midwest.

yeppers. on thursday i noted to friends that i had a feeling about this one that i had about gloria in 1985 (though gloria took a bigtime different track), and that's that the northeast is gonna get a piece, maybe all, of it. and right now i don't see anyway that that can't happen -- it's gonna funnel right on up. and if it hits a little to the south, that's the worst of all possibilities, because it will send water down long island sound, ala the winter storm of a little more than a decade ago, as well as give us bad wind, and for a long, long time. you don't want to be just north of where this thing hits.

this'un's scary.

dep

308 posted on 09/14/2003 12:14:55 PM PDT by dep (Ense Petit Placidam Sub Libertate Qvietem)
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To: MizSterious
Good advice!

Some of the best advice I've seen but not followed is to take photos of all your property so you can show it to the adjuster if disaster strikes. I have a digital camera, am finally going to do this. (I promise!)



309 posted on 09/14/2003 12:16:10 PM PDT by CobaltBlue (Never voted for a Democrat in my life.)
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To: CobaltBlue
Not a very good post because they will probably do it and cut in front of people trying to get out.
310 posted on 09/14/2003 12:16:47 PM PDT by U S Army EOD (Feeling my age, but wanting to feel older)
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To: Howlin
Isabel Weakens Slightly But Remains Powerful Threat To East Coast
Storm Could Hit U.S. By Thursday

POSTED: 3:51 p.m. EDT September 12, 2003
UPDATED: 2:17 p.m. EDT September 14, 2003

Hurricane Isabel weakened slightly Sunday but still was a powerful Category 4 storm as it plowed across the Atlantic Ocean on a course that could slam it into the central East Coast late this week.

"It's looking more and more likely that this is going to be a big event for the eastern United States," National Hurricane Center meteorologist Eric Blake said Sunday.

Computer models predict that weather conditions over the East Coast should prevent Isabel from turning back out to sea and missing land, hurricane specialist Stacy Stewart said.

"Landfall along the U.S Mid-Atlantic coast somewhere between North Carolina and New Jersey between four or five days (Thursday or Friday) is appearing more and more likely," Stewart said. "Little or no significant weakening is expected to occur until after landfall occurs."

In Wilmington, N.C., John Byrnes had already stocked up with 25 sheets of plywood Sunday and enough two-by-fours and screws to barricade the windows at his house, his in-laws' house and their downtown law office.

His household generator was ready, and he had an extra tank of propane gas to run appliances.

"We're all pretty much taken care of," Byrnes said. "We're in standby mode."

At midday Sunday, Isabel's maximum sustained wind speed had fallen by 5 mph to 155 mph -- 1 mph below the minimum for Category 5 -- apparently a fluctuation in strength common to major hurricanes, forecasters said. Experts had said it would be extremely unusual for Isabel to maintain Category 5 strength as it moved north over cooler water.

The storm was centered about 370 miles east-northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands, or about 320 miles north of San Juan, Puerto Rico. Hurricane-force wind of at least 74 mph extended 85 miles out from the center.

It was moving toward the west-northwest at about 12 mph and was expected to continue on that path into Monday, then turn toward the Carolinas, possibly making landfall Thursday or Friday. Forecasters note that hurricanes can be unpredictable, and long-range forecasts have large possibilities for error.

South Carolina went on an elevated alert status Friday.

In coastal Georgia, the Chatham County Emergency Management Agency urged residents to review their hurricane plans.

"It's still a long ways away, (but) we have to prepare as if it's coming here," said agency director Phillip Webber.

Even with plywood at its highest prices in a decade, Steve Myers had a steady stream of customers buying supplies to board up windows around Georgetown, S.C. At the 84 Lumber he co-manages, a sheet of half-inch plywood now costs about $20, but that's "cheaper than a $300 window," Myers said.

In Charleston, S.C., however, Joe Walker said he didn't evacuate in 1989, when Hurricane Hugo blasted ashore, and he probably won't leave if Isabel veers into his area.

"If it's going to come, it's going to come," Walker said.

The last Category 5 Atlantic hurricane was Mitch in 1998, which killed about 11,000 people in Central America. The last two Category 5 hurricanes to strike the United States were Andrew in 1992 and Camille in 1969.


311 posted on 09/14/2003 12:16:47 PM PDT by wimpycat (Down with Kooks and Kookery!)
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To: Amelia; alrea
"Yes, I started to go to Florence SC - my sister who lives on Hilton Head did go to Florence. Her house on Hilton Head was fine, but they had to use chainsaws to get the cars out of the driveway in Florence - all the trees in the yard were down."

I spent a year in Florence building back what Hugo tore down. There were thousands of homes severly damaged or destroyed, with some flattened.

312 posted on 09/14/2003 12:18:16 PM PDT by Vigilantcitizen (Game on in ten seconds...http://www.fatcityonline.com/Video/fatcityvsdemented.WMV)
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To: U S Army EOD
You have FReepmail.
313 posted on 09/14/2003 12:18:19 PM PDT by Lucy Lake
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To: tertiary01
"Let's all pray that the eastern pressure breaks down and Isabel heads safely towards Europe. Maybe if we pray in unison they will have the impact."

Those who don't understand that are likely to experience the consequences.

We started praying a few days ago that this thing would avoid FL because of loved ones there. Now we are following it up for the sake of Charleston/Summerville kin and then NC family.

The people and businesses of NC and VA are likely to suffer enormous economic damage if more is poured on us because we are already over-soaked with water. There's no real way for "government" to take a hit.
May God have mercy on us all.

314 posted on 09/14/2003 12:18:49 PM PDT by Spirited
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To: Howlin
Good to know that. I bought some great calf-high rubber wading boots at WalMart a couple of years ago. I use them for mucking around in the canal when necessary. They have gotten some tropical storm use too.
315 posted on 09/14/2003 12:19:16 PM PDT by NautiNurse
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To: Gabz
Hey Gabz,
Joining you on this thread. And agreeing, where're we supposed to go?
316 posted on 09/14/2003 12:20:22 PM PDT by Delmarksman (Keep the Criminals in Prison and leave my Guns alone. NNGL, No new gun laws.)
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To: Dog Gone
NRL is an excellent site. I recomend for anyone interested in any type of satellite photos.
317 posted on 09/14/2003 12:21:25 PM PDT by Orion78 (I WILL NEVER FORGET!!! FREE IRAN!!! BUSH 2004!!!)
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To: myprecious
It is like turning a battleship around. She is just not going to turn on a dime.

I agree with that, although hurricanes can turn pretty markedly if they feel like it.

I wouldn't be surprised if Georgia was in the crosshairs by tomorrow night. The forecasters are putting a lot more faith in this trough than I am.

I defer to their superior education in weather and years of experience, but they get it wrong more often than not.

318 posted on 09/14/2003 12:21:49 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: Dog Gone
a correction that far south?
319 posted on 09/14/2003 12:23:15 PM PDT by oceanview
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To: NautiNurse; Howlin; Amelia
Click here for a printable hurricane preparedness check list from WCTI-TV (New Bern).
320 posted on 09/14/2003 12:23:33 PM PDT by wimpycat (Down with Kooks and Kookery!)
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