[libtoken]

All CAPS time again...

WTNT23 KNHC 142039

TCMAT3

HURRICANE ISABEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132003

2100Z SUN SEP 14 2003



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 67.4W AT 14/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 933 MB

EYE DIAMETER 40 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.

64 KT....... 85NE 70SE 70SW 85NW.

50 KT.......110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW.

34 KT.......175NE 175SE 175SW 150NW.

12 FT SEAS..325NE 325SE 275SW 300NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 67.4W AT 14/2100Z

AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 67.0W



FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 24.7N 68.9W

MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.

64 KT... 85NE 70SE 70SW 85NW.

50 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW.

34 KT...175NE 175SE 175SW 150NW.



FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.7N 70.2W

MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.

64 KT... 85NE 70SE 70SW 85NW.

50 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW.

34 KT...175NE 175SE 175SW 150NW.



FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 26.7N 71.3W

MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.

64 KT... 85NE 70SE 70SW 85NW.

50 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.

34 KT...185NE 185SE 185SW 160NW.



FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 28.0N 72.2W

MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.

50 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.

34 KT...200NE 200SE 200SW 160NW.



FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 31.2N 74.0W

MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

50 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

34 KT...230NE 230SE 180SW 200NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 36.5N 76.0W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 43.5N 78.0W...INLAND

MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.1N 67.4W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z



FORECASTER STEWART

WTNT43 KNHC 142039

TCDAT3

HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 35

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2003



THE AFTERNOON PLETHORA OF RECON WIND AND PRESSURE DATA INDICATE THAT

ISABEL REMAINS BARELY BELOW CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY. AIR FORCE RESERVE

HURRICANE HUNTERS MEASURED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 150 KT...OR

135 KT SURFACE EQUIVALENT...IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE

EYEWALL...WHILE A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER DROPSONDE REPORT INDICATED

171 KT AVERAGE WINDS IN THE LOWER 150 METERS...OR 139 SURFACE WIND

EQUIVALENT. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...ISABEL IS BEING MAINTAINED

AT 135 KT. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS VERY IMPRESSIVE AND HAS

CONTINUED TO EXPAND.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/11. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT

CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS 2 FORECAST TRACKS OR REASONINGS. RECON FIX

POSITIONS HAVE BEEN COMING IN RIGHT ON TRACK AND THE LATEST 12Z NHC

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CONVERGE ABOUT THE PREVIOUS 2 FORECAST

TRACKS. THE LATEST GFDL RUN HAS CONTINUED ITS WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE

FORECAST TRACK AND THE 96-120H TRACK IS AT LEAST 90 NMI WEST OF THE

00Z TRACK. ONE DISTURBING BIT OF INFORMATION IS THAT THE 12Z

UKMET... GFS...GFDL...AND CANADIAN MODELS DID NOT ANALYZE THE 500

MB HEIGHT AND WIND FIELDS TO THE 12Z BERMUDA UPPER-AIR OBSERVATION

OF 10 KT NORTHEAST WIND AND 5940 METER HEIGHT. THIS OBSERVATION

SUGGESTS THAT THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BERMUDA AND ISABEL EXTENDS

SOUTHWESTWARD FARTHER THAN THOSE FOUR MODELS ARE INDICATING. MORE

RIDGING WOULD SUGGEST THAT...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM... ISABEL

SHOULD MOVE FARTHER WEST THAN THESE MODELS ARE FORECASTING BEFORE

THE HURRICANE BEGINS TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD. ONLY THE NOGAPS MODEL

INITIALIZED THE 500 MB PROPERLY TO THE BERMUDA OBSERVATION...AND

THE 12Z NOGAPS TRACK IS TO THE LEFT OR WEST OF THE PREVIOUS AND

CURRENT FORECAST TRACKS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN

EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS A LITTLE TO THE WEST AND

SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE REMAINS SOME

UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL OF ISABEL COULD OCCUR SINCE

THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD STILL DEEPEN AND DIG MORE

SOUTHWARD THAN THE MODELS ARE INDICATING. THIS COULD INDUCE A MORE

NORTHWARD MOTION AND RESULT IN LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE U.S. EAST

COAST. BUT AS IN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...A LARGE AND VERY

STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN EAST OF

ISABEL AND PREVENT THE HURRICANE FROM RECURVING NORTHEASTWARD.



ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT

COUPLE OF DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER

WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. BY 96

HOURS...ISABEL IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ACCELERATING NORTH OR

NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.

HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF

THE STRONGEST WINDS AND UNDER 15-25 KT 200 MB FLOW. THIS WOULD TEND

TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL HAS

BEEN INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE

WARM GULFSTREAM OFFSHORE NORTH CAROLINA JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.



FORECASTER STEWART



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INITIAL 14/2100Z 24.1N 67.4W 135 KT

12HR VT 15/0600Z 24.7N 68.9W 135 KT

24HR VT 15/1800Z 25.7N 70.2W 135 KT

36HR VT 16/0600Z 26.7N 71.3W 130 KT

48HR VT 16/1800Z 28.0N 72.2W 125 KT

72HR VT 17/1800Z 31.2N 74.0W 120 KT

96HR VT 18/1800Z 36.5N 76.0W 105 KT

120HR VT 19/1800Z 43.5N 78.0W 35 KT...INLAND

[oceanview]

reading that discussion section you posted: the further west it goes before turning north, the further south along the coast that it hits I think. Let's see what happens the next time the models run.

[oceanview]

updated strike probabilities

[CathyRyan]

WTNT23 KNHC 142039

TCMAT3

HURRICANE ISABEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132003
2100Z SUN SEP 14 2003



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 67.4W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 933 MB
EYE DIAMETER 40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 85NE 70SE 70SW 85NW.
50 KT.......110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW.
34 KT.......175NE 175SE 175SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..325NE 325SE 275SW 300NW.

Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 67.4W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 67.0W



FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 24.7N 68.9W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 85NE 70SE 70SW 85NW.
50 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 175SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.7N 70.2W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 85NE 70SE 70SW 85NW.
50 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 175SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 26.7N 71.3W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 85NE 70SE 70SW 85NW.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.
34 KT...185NE 185SE 185SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 28.0N 72.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 200SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 31.2N 74.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.
34 KT...230NE 230SE 180SW 200NW.


EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 36.5N 76.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 43.5N 78.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.1N 67.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z
FORECASTER STEWART

WTNT43 KNHC 142039

TCDAT3

HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2003



The afternoon plethora of recon wind and pressure data indicate that isabel remains barely below category 5 intensity. Air force reserve hurricane hunters measured 700 mb flight-level winds of 150 kt...or 135 kt surface equivalent...in the northeast quadrant of the eyewall...while a NOAA hurricane hunter dropsonde report indicated 171 kt average winds in the lower 150 meters...or 139 surface wind equivalent. Based on this information...Isabel is being maintained at 135 kt. The outflow pattern remains very impressive and has continued to expand.

The initial motion estimate is 290/11. There is no significant change to the previous 2 forecast tracks or reasonings. Recon fix positions have been coming in right on track and the latest 12z nhc model guidance continues to converge about the previous 2 forecast tracks. The latest gfdl run has continued its westward shift in the forecast track and the 96-120h track is at least 90 nmi west of the 00z track. One disturbing bit of information is that the 12z ukmet... Gfs...gfdl...and canadian models did not analyze the 500 mb height and wind fields to the 12z Bermuda upper-air observation of 10 kt northeast wind and 5940 meter height. This observation suggests that the ridge to the north of Bermuda and Isabel extends southwestward farther than those four models are indicating. More ridging would suggest that...at least in the short term... Isabel should move farther west than these models are forecasting before the hurricane begins to turn northwestward. Only the nogaps model initialized the 500 mb properly to the Bermuda observation...and the 12z nogaps track is to the left or west of the previous and current forecast tracks. The official forecast track is just an extension of the previous track and is a little to the west and slightly faster than the model consensus. There remains some uncertainty on where the exact landfall of Isabel could occur since the developing central u.s. trough could still deepen and dig more southward than the models are indicating. This could induce a more northward motion and result in landfall farther up the u.s. east coast. But as in the previous several model runs...a large and very strong north-south oriented ridge is forecast to remain east of Isabel and prevent the hurricane from recurving northeastward.

Only minor fluctuations in intensity are expected for the next couple of days as Isabel is forecast to move over sightly warmer water and remain in a favorable upper-level outflow pattern. By 96 hours...Isabel is forecast to begin accelerating north or north-northwestward under increasing southerly upper-level flow.

However...the central core of Isabel is expected to remain east of the strongest winds and under 15-25 kt 200 mb flow. This would tend to keep Isabel stronger than what the ships intensity model has been indicating...especially since Isabel will be moving over the warm gulfstream offshore North Carolina just prior to landfall.



Forecaster Stewart



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INITIAL 14/2100Z 24.1N 67.4W 135 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 24.7N 68.9W 135 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 25.7N 70.2W 135 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 26.7N 71.3W 130 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 28.0N 72.2W 125 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 31.2N 74.0W 120 KT
96HR VT 18/1800Z 36.5N 76.0W 105 KT
120HR VT 19/1800Z 43.5N 78.0W 35 KT...INLAND

[Stefan Stackhouse]

ONE DISTURBING BIT OF INFORMATION IS THAT THE 12Z UKMET... GFS...GFDL...AND CANADIAN MODELS DID NOT ANALYZE THE 500 MB HEIGHT AND WIND FIELDS TO THE 12Z BERMUDA UPPER-AIR OBSERVATION OF 10 KT NORTHEAST WIND AND 5940 METER HEIGHT. THIS OBSERVATION SUGGESTS THAT THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BERMUDA AND ISABEL EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FARTHER THAN THOSE FOUR MODELS ARE INDICATING. MORE RIDGING WOULD SUGGEST THAT...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM... ISABEL SHOULD MOVE FARTHER WEST THAN THESE MODELS ARE FORECASTING BEFORE THE HURRICANE BEGINS TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD. ONLY THE NOGAPS MODEL INITIALIZED THE 500 MB PROPERLY TO THE BERMUDA OBSERVATION...AND THE 12Z NOGAPS TRACK IS TO THE LEFT OR WEST OF THE PREVIOUS AND CURRENT FORECAST TRACKS.

This is not good news for the Carolinas