Hurricane Isabel Now Expected To Hit The United States

National Hurricane Center ^ | 9/14/03 | NHC

[I_love_weather]

Sorry for the caps...this is the way they post these things

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.

ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

Five Day Forecast Map

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif

[fjsva]

<< I'll guarantee you right now that every surfer dude for 400 miles is waxing his board and gassing his car and heading for Folly Beach, SC in the next couple of days. >>

In the 70's I would have been one of them....

[CheneyChick]

I look at the weather reports and am speechless. This thing looks so big. I have no idea what I'd be thinking right now if I lived on the East Coast. Prayers for you all that are in the path of this thing. I really hope it starts downgrading in strength any effect is minimized. Wow.

[Orion78]

Here is a site that posts good pictures of Tropical Storms.

http://www.osei.noaa.gov/

And here is the link for the actual photo of Isabel.

http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Current/TRCisabel255_G12.jpg

[wimpycat]

Oh, that reminds me......(out the door and off to Wal-Mart...)

[conservativejunkie]

Y'all come down here to Key West. Harley Poker Run on 19,20,21. Going to be great fun!

[Amelia]

Good advice? Do you have any idea how many people in NJ live within 50-75 miles of the coast? It ain't gonna happen.

You know you're a Southerner if several friends or relatives have already said, "Now, if that storm comes your way, you know you've got a place to stay here, don't you?" ;-)

[Dog Gone]

Good advice? Do you have any idea how many people in NJ live within 50-75 miles of the coast? It ain't gonna happen.

My comment explicitly stated that reservations wouldn't be available much longer. It's good advice for intelligent people.

If you think that nobody should follow it because EVERYONE can't, then, well, I won't say it.

[CobaltBlue]

Going inland is really smart if you have a medical condition that requires the use of a machine, like an oxygen tank. Power outages are pretty much a given.

[Vigilantcitizen]

"I wouldn't be surprised if Georgia was in the crosshairs by tomorrow night. The forecasters are putting a lot more faith in this trough than I am."

I'm still sticking with the Savannah to Charleston landfall. Storms of this size have a mind of their own.

I forget the name of the storm last year that the experts kept saying was going to hit Texas, but turned east and hit LA instead.

[Howlin]

Can you get mine, too????

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

Hurricane Andrew Upgraded to Category 5 - Aug. 22, 2002

[Amelia]

Ship Island is an island right off the coast were a fort was built during the civil war plus it was used for a prison.

My great-great-grandfather was a POW at Ship Island.

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

Book the hotel room in Raleigh now - you can always cancel it later if you don't need it.

[CobaltBlue]

She is just not going to turn on a dime.

They do, though. They zig and zag like crazy when the conditions are right.

They are steered by high and low pressure zones in the upper atmosphere. High pressure "pushes" them away and low pressure "pulls" them. In a low trough between two high zones they will go really fast.

[Amelia]

There were thousands of homes severly damaged or destroyed, with some flattened.

Much of the damage there appeared to have been done by tornados. My parents said it sounded like trains over the house all night long. They lost some trees, but the house was fine.

We drove through areas where one house would be fine, but next-door every tree in the yard was down.

[July 4th]

DC, I have no idea. It's a bit inland, so even if something were coming head on, I'd think there would be a bit of a buffer. VA and NC, however, have been whacked.

[independentmind]

New Jersey has escaped some of the most severe hurricanes in the last 80 years or so; I hope their luck continues to hold. My mother lives than 60 miles due inland from the coast.

As for me, my guess is that my scheduled trip to Northern VA later in the week won't happen. I'm not sure how much damage a Category 5 hurricane could cause to Central Va where I live, but I guess I'll find out. As many others have mentioned, the ground is saturated, and I live at the foot of the eastern side of the Blue Ridge mountains. Exactly the same conditions existed when Camille killed over 100 people not too far away from here.

[Dog Gone]

a correction that far south?

That's probably the extreme southern track it could take. But I note that there is still weather moving WEST in southern Florida today, and this storm has refused to move north as much as they have been predicting from the start.

Did they suddenly get it right today when they finally said it wouldn't turn northeast and out to sea? Perhaps, but I'm not convinced they still aren't giving it a northward bias which won't pan out.

[CobaltBlue]

I just have this feeling that she is going to get sucked into that void between the high right up north and the low coming from the midwest.

Me, too. At times like this, in New Orleans, they bring out this 85 year old retired weatherman named Nash Roberts, who is a genius at predicting the path of hurricanes. But I think these days they only bother when it's in the Gulf.

Everybody wants to know "what does Nash Roberts say?" because he's always right. If anybody knows what Nash has to say about Isabel, if anything, please let me know.

[U S Army EOD]

I rode Elane out in the Jordan river in my sailboat but during that one, the water actually dropped several feet.

I will always remember one evening when we had a strong low off of Bay St. Louis. I was living on the boat in the marina in the Jordan river where the gambling boats are now. I was tied up approximately 50yards from the shore. The name of the boat was "Georgia Peach II" and I had this cat named "Peaches" that lived with me on the boat. Peaches would usually show up around 6 PM but not that night. 6:30 PM no Peaches, 7:00 PM no Peaches, 7:30 PM no Peaches at which time I decided I had better go look for her. As I stood up I heard this clump, clump on the deck and in comes Peaches through her hatch I had made for her. We was very wet and very pissed off. I looked outside and there was nothing but water. The docks were completely covered and poor Peaches was a very unhappy cat since she had to swim the 50 yards to get back to the boat from the shore. If a little blow like that can bring the water up over six feet, just think what a hurricane like Camille could do.