Hurricane Isabel - Confirmed Category 5 by Aircraft

NWS ^

[nwctwx]

Hurricane Isabel Advisory Number 27 Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on September 12, 2003 ...Air Force reserve and NOAA hurricane hunters confirm that Isabel is a category five hurricane... at 5 PM AST...2100z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located near latitude 21.8 north...longitude 58.6 west or about 350 miles...565 km...northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Isabel is moving toward the west near 9 mph...15 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. Report from Air Force reserve and NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph...260 km/hr...with higher gusts. This makes Isabel a category five hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes...and are likely during the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles...295 km. The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunters is 920 mb...27.17 inches. Large ocean swells and dangerous surf conditions are likely over portions of the Leeward Islands...the Virgin Islands...and Puerto Rico over the next several days. Repeating the 5 PM AST position...21.8 N... 58.6 W. Movement toward...west near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds...160 mph. Minimum central pressure... 920 mb. The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11 PM AST. Forecaster Beven

[dixie sass]

I think between Savannah and Myrtle Beach, most probably just south of Charleston.

[dixie sass]

I'm thankful that my son is here in Charleston with me and not in the KeyWest right now.

[dixie sass]

Feminine intuition.

[dixie sass]

Lol, it's hard, isn't it? I can't leave - no car, but I have already started getting ready. Only thing I really need to do is stock up on water, lots of water!!!!!

[Gunslingr3]

sarcasm tag was implied, given the recent disappointment expressed by a black member of congress that no hurricanes had 'black' names.

[dixie sass]

It sure did, just like Hugo. Weeks without hotwater!!! I hate cold showers! Everyweekend, I would get off work and head to Aiken and the first thing I would do is tell Momma and 'Bina hello and head for the Shower!!!!!

[Spirited]

Ye gods, of course. That would be a plus.

Have a Citadel grad son and still recall the first time over that bridge.

Trouble is also have beloved friends in the area and am thinking of the damage to the Waterfront in the last go-round..

[dixie sass]

Lol, Okay. Missed the Sarcasm off tag!

[NautiNurse]

The photo is from the St. Pete Times. There are several related local stories from that storm.

[dixie sass]

Thank you.

[backhoe]

Latest from NOAA:

[libtoken]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 130842
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISABEL ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SAT SEP 13 2003

...ISABEL WEAKENED A BIT...STILL VERY POWERFULL...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.4 WEST OR ABOUT 455 MILES...730
KM...NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...240
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...22.0 N... 60.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 935 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA


000
WTNT43 KNHC 130843
TCDAT3
HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2003

THE MUCH ANTICIPATED WEAKENING HAS OCCURRED. DATA FROM A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN
TO 935 MB AND FLIGHT-LEVEL PEAK WINDS ARE 139 KNOTS. INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 130 KNOTS AND THIS IS PROBABLY ON THE
HIGH SIDE. THE RECON ALSO CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF TWO CONCENTRIC
EYEWALLS OF 25 AND 35 NMI AND A BAND OF MAXIMUM WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH EACH EYEWALL...RESPECTIVELY. THERE IS NO SKILL IN PREDICTING IF
THE CURRENT EYEWALL CYCLE WILL RESULT IN FURTHER WEAKENING OR IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF INTENSIFICATION. BEST BET IS TO INDICATE SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH A WEAKENING
TREND DUE TO COOLER SSTS OR SHEAR THEREAFTER. NEVERTHERELESS...
ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE. THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO STEER THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE WEST WITH A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IT
APPEARS THAT THE TROUGH WHICH IS CURRENTLY ERODING THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND THE HIGH WILL EXPAND WESTWARD.
THIS EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTROL HOW CLOSE ISABEL
APPROACHES THE U.S EAST COAST.

HIGH UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE AT LONGER RANGE. THE CONSISTENT AND
GOOD PERFORMER UK MODEL HAS THE HURRICANE NEAR THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA BETWEEN 5 AND 6 DAYS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE RELIABLE
GFDL TURNS ISABEL NORTHWARD IN FIVE DAYS AT A GOOD DISTANCE AWAY
FROM THE U.S EAST COAST. BECAUSE BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY GOOD SO
FAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS. AT THIS
TIME...I WOULD NOT EVEN DISCUSS THE GFS WHICH MOVES THE HURRICANE
EASTWARD FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS IN THE LATEST 00Z RUN AND
ISABEL IS ALREADY WEST OF 60 DEGREES WEST. HOWEVER...THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN PROVIDED BY THE GFS IS QUITE REASONABLE.

NOTE: THERE ARE NO DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGESTING THAT ISABEL MIGHT
EVER REACH FLORIDA.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0900Z 22.0N 60.4W 130 KT
12HR VT 13/1800Z 22.2N 61.6W 130 KT
24HR VT 14/0600Z 23.0N 63.7W 130 KT
36HR VT 14/1800Z 23.5N 65.5W 130 KT
48HR VT 15/0600Z 24.5N 67.5W 130 KT
72HR VT 16/0600Z 26.0N 70.0W 120 KT
96HR VT 17/0600Z 28.5N 72.0W 115 KT
120HR VT 18/0600Z 32.0N 74.5W 105 KT

[libtoken]

The latest NHC SWAG would seem to guess that this will be a Hatteras-brusher (which I had suspected given that Isabel formed so far north). However, Isabel could fake everyone out again...

[libtoken]

The models suggest wide unpredictability about Isabel. See http://www.wrel.com/modelmap.htm for the latest guesses of some of the models. If you believe one of them, Florida is not out of the woods yet... and if you believe the rightmost one will slide further to the right, those members of the elistist board blown halfway away by Fabian may be in for a rude resurprise.

[NautiNurse]

If you believe one of them, Florida is not out of the woods yet

Per NHC 0500 Discussion #29--Note: there are no dynamical models suggesting that Isabel might ever reach Florida. NHC has repeatedly indicated which models have been the most reliable for this storm.

[Ax]

We're leaving Palm Beach County this morning for a couple of weeks. Spent yesterday morning putting up hurricane shutters. I think we're the only permanent residents of south Florida whose house is shuttered, but I would rather go through the trouble than be out at Yellowstone and find out that Isabel decided to pay PBC a visit.

[NautiNurse]

You will have a much more relaxing trip knowing that your home is secure.

Of course, the reason so few people have hurricane shutters is because they cost more than a luxury car. Have a great time!

[grania]

This the first hurricane I have watched on GOES, so I am just guessing. It will be interesting to see if you can tell the future track from the water vapor images.

Isn't it called "Occam's Razor"? You look at the most obvious explanation of something, and it's probably the correct one, so prove or disprove it first.

Water vapor makes sense. You know how when you're near the ocean you can sometimes feel when that storm is heading in or going out to sea? Well, wouldn't that be water vapor?

We'll see. It's always fun to see a new hypothesis play out. (Yeah, I'll admit it. Hurricanes are incredible fun unless and until there is horrific damage. Walking along the ocean, feeling that breeze and surf, staring at the maps and the ridiculous WeatherStation announcers on the shore telling people it's dangerous to be on the shore, buying emergency twinkies or whatever...like anyone would starve in two days, seeing my neighbors golf-course like lawns and gardens get decimated, the break in the schedule, etc, etc)

[NautiNurse]

those Twinkies are comfort food--not sustinance! It's likely you won't be able to pull together a hot pot of macaroni and cheese during/after the storm.

After Fran got us, the most wonderful sound was hearing the chainsaws after the floods subsided. The moment the road was clear, I jumped in the car and drove 35 miles for a hot cup of coffee--my ultimate comfort beverage. Fortunately, I had filled the gas tank the night before. The lines at the service station in Burlington were horrible!

[RightWinger]

Hi Dixie.

The latest projections look like Isabel will travel well north of us, I hope they are correct.