Hurricane Isabel - Confirmed Category 5 by Aircraft

NWS ^

[nwctwx]

Hurricane Isabel Advisory Number 27 Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on September 12, 2003 ...Air Force reserve and NOAA hurricane hunters confirm that Isabel is a category five hurricane... at 5 PM AST...2100z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located near latitude 21.8 north...longitude 58.6 west or about 350 miles...565 km...northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Isabel is moving toward the west near 9 mph...15 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. Report from Air Force reserve and NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph...260 km/hr...with higher gusts. This makes Isabel a category five hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes...and are likely during the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles...295 km. The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunters is 920 mb...27.17 inches. Large ocean swells and dangerous surf conditions are likely over portions of the Leeward Islands...the Virgin Islands...and Puerto Rico over the next several days. Repeating the 5 PM AST position...21.8 N... 58.6 W. Movement toward...west near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds...160 mph. Minimum central pressure... 920 mb. The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11 PM AST. Forecaster Beven

[Amelia]

can anyone reassure me that there is little chance that ole Isabel is gonna hit Charlottesville Va on the 20th of September?:)

I think it's more likely to hit on the 19th. ;-)

[kayak]

I hope it's an indoor wedding.

Congratulations! And best of luck as far as Isabel goes. It's way too soon to say.

[oceanview]

that one didn't hurt us too much hear on Long Island, when you live on the ocean, flooding from rainfall is a non event, its the storm surge I have to worry about. it amazing to see one come in, it doesn't build up like a bathup slowly filling. its just right on you in an instant, you look outside the window and it was fine, 2 minutes later, waves were breaking on my street.

[kayak]

When Hugo came through here, my brother had a house at Carolina Beach (southern corner of NC, jsut south of Wilmington) and a small cabin in the NC mountains.

The beach house was virtually untouched ..... the cabin near Boone had a lot of damage. Go figure!

We live in the Charlotte area now. When we were house-hunting about 8 years ago, real estate agents would tell us that a house had a "Hugo roof" ... meaning that it was relatively new. Some people up here were without power for 5 weeks!

[XRdsRev]

I live very close to Bound Brook, New Jersey. The Floyd pics from the website you provided show the Catholic school I attended as a kid and smoke is pouring from a block of building where I worked when I was in high school. 8+ feet of water on Main Street and 2 drowning deaths, it was incredible. I never saw anything like it and hope never to again.

[FrustratedCitizen]

I'm told someone asked if I would contribute to this thread.

I get a lot of my information from the Accuweather.com Professional website...it's not a free service unfortunately.

I agree with a popular forecaster named Joe Bastardi on his take on this storm.

I'll encapsulate his ideas now in lay terms.

1. Isabel will not miss. There is too much interference from strong high pressure systems forecast in the next 10 days. The weather in Asia and the Pacific is dictating this...there is almost no way the ridge over New England will break down enough.

2. Florida and the Gulf of Mexico are probably out of the woods. The track is similar to Hurricanes Floyd and Hugo and this stage in their evolution. One recurved classically (Floyd), one came inland way far west (Hugo)...storms that curve west after starting north very VERY rarely miss land. and generally only hit Florida if they're moving rapidly...Isabel is crawling along at 7 mph for the next two days.

3. Bastardi and I agree that a more northly track is likely...putting everyone from Charleston to Cape Cod at risk for a hit. I would favor a swath from Wilmington to the DelMarVA. At this point though...it is very tough to make an accurate forecast as the system is still seven or eight days away.

Understand that I'm not anywhere near perfect form this range...LOL But I believe that everyone in the megalopolis will have inclimate weather, fooding, high winds, and tornadoes to worry about as Isabel rampages up the coast.

And I don't foresee any massive weakening until it's near the coast...there's a patch of VERY chilly water off the east coast from Georgia to New Jersey that may be enough to knock 20-40 mph off the storm just as it's making landfall...that may be our only saving grace. If it weren't for that...I'd be predicting one of the worst weather disasters in US history.

[firewalk]

.

[kayak]

Thanks! Please keep us updated as the storm gets closer to land.

[aristeides]

If the posters here are right, the 1938 hurricane that did such damage on Fire Island (and up the Connecticut Valley) was only a Category 3. I hate to think what a Category 5 could do.

[Tuxedo]

Andrew was also a small hurricane. Powerful, but small. This is a big bitch! More like Camille...and track is still somewhat uncertain. It is forecast to turn to the NW, but if she stays south... bad news for the islands, and bad news for the gulf coast.

It doesn't look like she is intending on pulling a Fabian.

[leadpenny]

Thank you. Lots of worried Outer Banks property owners I would guess.

[Cosmo]

150 miles? 180? ( 3 hour from Va beach, but that route ain't exactly a straight line)

[aristeides]

Fabian brought a lot of new sand to the beaches on Fire Island last week. Did it do the same to the Outer Banks?

[oceanview]

makes sense, this is why the NYC local channels are hinting at trouble up in this area.

i think that cold water could knock it down towards the higher end of your range. I remember hurricane gloria in 1985 (??), really started to weaken in the last 100 miles before crossing long island.

[Cosmo]

sadly, it's outdoous, and there ain't no way I'm gonna fit 100 people in my house.....Perhaps our minister will give us a hand with the weather:)

[kayak]

Our daughter got married on Sept. 6 in northern VA (just west of DC). It was an outdoor wedding. After weeks and weeks of rain, the day turned out just perfect ..... clear skies, pleasant temperature, and relatively low humidity. I hope you're as lucky!

[who knows what evil?]

On the bright side...if Charleston takes a direct hit, there is a strong possibility that this hurricane will FINALLY blow away the OLD Cooper River bridge...the scourge of "white-knuckle ride" fans everywhere!

[leadpenny]

Don't know. Haven't been out there since the kids were little. I thought of investing in something back then but predictions have always been that that strip of land they call the Outer Banks will be moved by some monster storms. Not good for property values.

[U S Army EOD]

I lived in Bay St. Louis and Pass Christian, MS but not when Camile hit. The damage was still there 30 years after the storm. Route 90 is about 200-300 yards from the beach and there were two 600 foot ships on the town side of 90 after it was over. One group of people decided to ride the storm out in a condo on the beach. The only survivor was found several miles inland and she claimed she could not see the tops of trees as she floated across Bay St. Louis. I was in a marina located about two miles inland and the high water mark was about 16 feet above sea level. A preacher tried to ride out the storm with his family in his church. The entire family drowned in the steaple of the church.