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Phase Three? The enemy is growing desperate
NRO ^ | 8/21/2003 | Victor Davis Hanson

Posted on 08/21/2003 6:44:39 PM PDT by Utah Girl

After the first two conventional military victories in Afghanistan of November 2001 and this spring in Iraq, the recent bombings suggest that we are now entering a third phase: A desperate last-ditch war of attrition in which our enemies feel that bombing, suicide murdering, assassination, and general terrorism against Westerners the world over might still achieve what conventional military operations did not. The idea is to make life so miserable for Iraqis, and so dangerous for foreigners, that the United States will withdraw, thus allowing either a fascist autocracy or terrorist theocracy — in the manner of the Taliban or an Afghan warlord — to emerge from the chaos.

Indeed, the abhorrent assault on a U.N. complex in Baghdad — taken together with the near-simultaneous murdering of innocents in Jerusalem, the recent attack on the Jordanian embassy, and the bombing of Iraqi oil and water pipelines — may suggest to critics of the Americans that the enemy is recouping and gaining the upper hand.

Far from it. We are indeed entering a third phase. But it is not quite what most people think, since it has brought a brutal clarity to the conflict that the terrorists may not have intended. For those who were still unsure of the affinities between the West Bank killers once subsidized by Saddam, Baathist fedeyeen, the Taliban, and al Qaedist terrorists, the similarity in method, the identical blood-curling rhetoric, and the eerie timing of slaughtering during peace negotiations and efforts at civil reconstruction should establish the existence of a common enemy. It has been fighting us all along — a general fascism, now theocratic, now autocratic, that seeks to divert the Middle East from the forces of modernization and liberalization.

Contrary to the latest round of punditry, the liberation of Iraq did not stir up a hornet's nest nor create ex nihilo these terrible alliances. No, they are natural expressions of the hatred manifested on 9/11 that will continue until either we or they are defeated.

The intifada was unleashed during negotiations and concessions. The World Trade Center and Pentagon were bombed in a time of peace after a decade of forbearance in the face of continual affronts. The killing in Afghanistan focuses on aid workers and restorers. And the U.N. complex in Baghdad was not a casualty of war, but rather targeted during the postbellum efforts to feed, clothe, and rebuild civil society. There is a pattern here.

From the detritus of Wednesday's terror will arise a new grim acceptance that despite all our brilliantly rapid military victories we are not yet finished in this war for civilization, and that there are a group of killers — whether Baathists, al Qaedists, West Bank murderers, or Iranian and Saudi terrorists-who shall give no quarter. We should never forget that. In the euphoria of the three-week victory many of us rightly still worried that under the new restrictive protocols of postmodern warfare the age-old laws of conflict were for a time being forgotten: The ease of postbellum occupation is in proportion to the level of punishment inflicted on the enemy.

Our careful air campaign, the inability to sweep down into the Sunni triangle in the first days of the war from Turkey, and the abrupt collapse rather than the destruction of enemy forces in the field paradoxically resulted in thousands who ran away rather than were defeated. We immediately ended the fighting and began the humanitarian effort to help the helpless — even as our enemies and their jihadist friends saw that magnanimity as the removal of the stake driven through their vampirish heart.

Yet tragically whether an enemy is engaged in battle or in the street, there always remains a finite number of recalcitrant diehards who must be killed or captured. So while it was amazing that Saddam's army dissolved in April, we should always remember that many of them still must be dealt with in August and September — both to eliminate combatants and, just as importantly, to send a message to foreign terrorists that it is a deadly mistake to take on the United States military.

The current choice of soft and largely civilian targets, while in the short-term horrific and depressing, is also instructive. The Baathist remnants and assorted terrorists who are now their allies have declared themselves not only enemies of the United States, but murderers of innocent Iraqis, Jordanians, and U.N. officials at large. They brag that they are driving infidels and Westerners of all stripes from sacred land. In fact, the current indiscriminate killing was a strategic mistake. It is a sign of desperation and can only unite the global community in its belief that terrorism, suicide murdering, and the agents of rogue regimes really do constitute a nexus of opposition to the forces of civilization — and must in return warrant universal resistance from the world at large.

Blowing up petroleum pipelines and vital water supplies in a scorching summer is directed at the Iraqi people, not just the American military. That nihilism reminds both us and the Iraqis that there is no going back to Saddam or descending into anarchy. The terrorists wish to make life as miserable for Iraqis as they do for Americans, and are willing to kill both for their own political ends. The net result of that desperate gambit will be a grudging acceptance that those who seek to end water, gas, food, and freedom in Iraq are the enemy, not us — and thus only Iraqi assistance can end the terror that threatens themselves.

What should be the American response to the latest terrorism? There will of course be the normal post-calamity bickering and recriminations: Not enough troops? Unwise dismissal of Baathist police and army? Failure to incorporate U.N. and international peacekeepers? These are important issues to be adjudicated, but they and many others still to be raised do not get to the heart of matter.

Our astonishing defeats of Saddam Hussein and the Taliban cannot blind us to the reality — unchanging since 9/11 — that we are in a war to the end with those who wish to destroy Western society and all that it holds dear. Both tactically and strategically this is a conflict that our enemies cannot win — given their military inferiority and accompanying failure to offer an attractive alternative to the freedom and prosperity of the West.

This doom the nihilists grudgingly accept. Thus the past week in Afghanistan, in Baghdad, and in Jerusalem they have once more embraced the tactics of the bomb-laden truck and suicide belt to demoralize civil society and to win the only way they can — as was true in Beirut and Mogadishu — by eroding public support for the continuance of war. Otherwise, they will lose and the virus of reform and legality will only spread.

Because September 11 was a direct consequence of our early failures to confront our enemies, our general response to the latest challenges should be even greater defiance. It is time to bring to fruition the president's warning of nearly two years ago, that one is either with or against the terrorists. So Syria, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, from which our enemies (many now in Iraq) operate, must either close their borders, turn over terrorists, and join the ranks of civilization — or chose the side of barbarism and accept the terrible consequences of such a fatal decision. And for the short term, we must continue on course-employing counterinsurgency tactics to go after the terrorists in the field, accelerating the transfer of governance to Iraqis to increase their visibility and responsibility in the conflict and restoring infrastructure to Afghanistan and Iraq.

It is the American way and the nature of our media culture to exaggerate setbacks and ignore successes. Thus even as our television screens seem to be overcome by panic and fear, high-ranking Baathists continue to be arrested in Iraq, terrorists find themselves stymied in achieving another 9/11, and the reconstruction of Iraq continues.

Our real problem? We must shed our complacency that has habitually arisen after the absence of another 9/11 attack in the United States, and the rapid victories in Afghanistan and Iraq, and press on. Either the Middle East will be a breeding ground for terrorists and rogue regimes that threaten sober nations and peoples the world over, from Manhattan to Jerusalem, or it will desist and join the rest of the world. It really is as simple as that.


TOPICS: Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Government; News/Current Events; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: desperation; intifada; iraq; softtargets; staythecourse; victordavishanson
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1 posted on 08/21/2003 6:44:40 PM PDT by Utah Girl
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To: Utah Girl
Our real problem? We must shed our complacency that has habitually arisen after the absence of another 9/11 attack in the United States, and the rapid victories in Afghanistan and Iraq, and press on. Either the Middle East will be a breeding ground for terrorists and rogue regimes that threaten sober nations and peoples the world over, from Manhattan to Jerusalem, or it will desist and join the rest of the world. It really is as simple as that.

I think those of us willing to see understand that...it's the other party and its adherents.....

May they never regain the WH!

2 posted on 08/21/2003 6:54:00 PM PDT by Molly Pitcher (Is Reality Optional?)
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To: MEG33
bttt
3 posted on 08/21/2003 6:55:00 PM PDT by MEG33
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To: Molly Pitcher
It is more than the other party. Why is Bush appeasing Palestinian terrorists?
4 posted on 08/21/2003 6:55:56 PM PDT by LarryM
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To: Utah Girl
Maybe our media culture is actually providing valuable defeatist disinformation so our enemies will be all the more astounded by our real might and resolve? Of course, that would be unwittingly on their (medias') part.
5 posted on 08/21/2003 7:05:14 PM PDT by kcar (T)
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To: Utah Girl
This guy needs to go back to the war college and still be teaching future generals.

I think Ralph POeters shouls go back into the job also, as much as I like his stuff under Owen Parry pen name.

6 posted on 08/21/2003 7:07:28 PM PDT by dts32041 ("moderate Arab" he's the one who detonates his bomb via remote control.)
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To: dts32041
peters should
7 posted on 08/21/2003 7:07:54 PM PDT by dts32041 ("moderate Arab" he's the one who detonates his bomb via remote control.)
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To: Utah Girl
Good post.
8 posted on 08/21/2003 7:07:58 PM PDT by Ethyl
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To: Utah Girl
Thank you for the VDH post. It is always heartening to read a coherent, right thinking, long term optimist.
9 posted on 08/21/2003 7:07:58 PM PDT by Uncle Miltie (BULLDOZE AL AQSA!)
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To: dts32041
Hanson has recently taught at Annapolis.
10 posted on 08/21/2003 7:08:35 PM PDT by Molly Pitcher (Is Reality Optional?)
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To: LarryM
To buy time and handle one bunch of terrorists at a time rather than fight the whole middle east at once IMO.

I think there are at least 40% terrorist among those populations and to take them all on at once is impossible.
11 posted on 08/21/2003 7:09:58 PM PDT by A CA Guy (God Bless America, God bless and keep safe our fighting men and women.)
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To: Utah Girl
*BUMP* !
12 posted on 08/21/2003 7:12:20 PM PDT by ex-Texan (My tag line is broken !)
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To: LarryM
Appeasement would not be my choice of words.

My thought is that the President made the right move....away from the Arafat leadership, and Abbas was it.

If Abbas does not control the terror, then we've reached a dead end on the road map to peace.

13 posted on 08/21/2003 7:12:57 PM PDT by Molly Pitcher (Is Reality Optional?)
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To: Utah Girl
Phase Three? The enemy is growing desperate

----------------------

For hundred of years Mohammedan armies conquered much of the known world with massed armies. Mohammed, himself, led numerous military campaigns. In these days:

1) Massive concentrated frontal military campaigns are suicide. They would result in complete annialation by air power.

2) Political correctness and cultural diversity have resulted in reluctance to identify the raw fundamental nature of any problem, including that of Mohammedism. Even our own befuddled president calls Islam a religion of peace.

3) Within the context of reality avoidance and ludricrous over-tolerance, Mohammedism had found itself able to break its armies up into guerilla groups and attempt to reconquer the world while we wander about in denial attempting to resolve immobilizing claims about who are the peaceful versus non-peaceful Islamics. Mohammedism is not running desperate or scared. It is working smart. We are losing as bodies pile up in nemerous countries every day.

14 posted on 08/21/2003 7:24:07 PM PDT by RLK
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To: Utah Girl
...The current indiscriminate killing was a strategic mistake. It is a sign of desperation and can only unite the global community in its belief that terrorism, suicide murdering, and the agents of rogue regimes realy do constitute a nexus of opposition to the forces of civilization...

I think Professor Hanson is too optimistic. He ignores the obsessive hatred of the American and European Left for President Bush...they would gladly sabotage the American efforts to combat terrorism if it would make Bush's re-election in 2004 less likely.

Remember State Department official J. Brady Kiesling's letter of resignation last February: "this Administration has chosen to make terrorism a domestic political tool, enlisting a scattered and largely defeated Al Qaeda as its bureaucratic ally."

15 posted on 08/21/2003 7:40:01 PM PDT by Verginius Rufus
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To: LarryM
maybe to show the world that arafat is full of crap and that arabs are no good at peace in Isreal. If you hold out your hand and tell your friends to watch the response, then your friends are forced to admit they have been mistaken.<
P>
Today Powell told the world the the PA must disarm Hamas. Four months ago he was telling Isreal to step back. The game has changed. In six months when the arabs are pushed into the sea and their homes leveled they will ask for some new rules. Too late.
16 posted on 08/21/2003 7:40:49 PM PDT by q_an_a
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To: RLK
So what's your solution my friend?

I know what mine would be, but I'm interested in yours.

L

17 posted on 08/21/2003 7:43:55 PM PDT by Lurker (A 'moderate' Arab is one who carries a grudge for less than 8 generations.)
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To: Lurker
So what's your solution my friend? I know what mine would be, but I'm interested in yours.

---------------------------

Forst, no more wimpy confusion and denial. Mohammedism must be explained as being the aggressively psychotic rabble yhat it is and which has killed tens of millions of people ocer the centuries. That's what Bush should have said after 9/11.

We are not the only one with the proble. India has seen 35,000 people killed in one of its states alone by Mohammedans in the last ten years. India continues to lose over 100 people a night to Mohammedan violence. Indonesia has lost 10,000 in the last several years.

We have allies in our problems with Mohammedism. Gather them together and expunge Islam from the face of the earth befor it expunges us from the face of the earth. Call it a counter-Mohammedan Jihad.

18 posted on 08/21/2003 8:04:43 PM PDT by RLK
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To: RLK
OK, so we are both thinking along the same lines.

Regards,

L

19 posted on 08/21/2003 9:06:07 PM PDT by Lurker (A 'moderate' Arab is one who carries a grudge for less than 8 generations.)
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To: Verginius Rufus; eyespysomething
I believe this quote posted by eyespysomething may appropriately identify the American and European Left for what they are....

"A nation can survive its fools and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within. An enemy at the gates is less formidable, for he is known and he carries his banners openly against the city. But the traitor moves among those within the gates freely, his sly whispers rustling through all alleys, heard in the very halls of government itself. For the traitor appears no traitor; he speaks in the accents familiar to his victim, and he wears their face and their garments and he appeals to the baseness that lies deep in the hearts of all men. He rots the soul of a nation; he works secretly and unknown in the night to undermine the pillars of a city; he infects the body politic so that it can no longer resist. A murderer is less to be feared. The traitor is the plague."

- Marcus Tullius Cicero, Roman Orator - 106-43 B.C.
20 posted on 08/21/2003 9:22:43 PM PDT by Rockitz (After all these years, it's still rocket science.)
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