Davis Recall Extremely Risky

Newsmax ^ | 6/20/03 | Geoff Metcalf

[LdSentinal]

They said it couldn’t be done, but voters in California seem inclined to recall Gov. Gray Davis.

Despite the fact that I have very dear friends involved in the recall effort, I think it is a HUGE strategic mistake, and if (God forbid) successful will have long-term negative consequences to the state AND the country.

If successful, the recall effort will result in handing the state of California to Democrats on a silver platter and doom the Golden State to at least a decade of unchallenged liberal Democrat control.

Some will say, “So what’s new about that?” A successful recall effort will also make a difficult but doable challenge for the Bush campaign a virtual impossibility in 2004.

The recent Public Policy Institute of California poll reveals that 48 percent of voters say they are willing to dump Davis and 41 percent say they'd retain him as governor.

However, the margin among likely voters was 51 percent to 43 percent in favor of recalling Davis.

Davis deserves to be recalled. He has been malfeasant, incompetent and duplicitous. His popularity rating has plunged to a miserable 21 percent to 25 percent for good reason. One statehouse insider told me that Davis is “politically bankrupt … with NO political capital.”

Seventy-five percent of Republicans and Independents support the recall and even a third of polled Democrats agree. However, it is a major whoops that will bite recall supporters hard.

The survey results demonstrate the broad, deep and palpable discontent in California. There are myriad reasons for the antipathy Davis has earned.

• California has a monumental $38 billion deficit.

• Ronald Reagan pounded Gov. Pat Brown for spending $1 million a day more than the state's revenues – about $5.5 million in today's dollars. Davis is spending $30 million a day more than the state is taking in.

• Although aided by a complicit legislature, Davis is largely responsible.

• He is arrogant, pretentious, smarmy and lordly in demeanor.

  Notwithstanding the money Congressman Darryl Issa is throwing at the the cruel reality is that probably neither will fill the void of a dumped Davis.

  Consider the following:

• Dianne Feinstein could and would clear the field of the gaggle of wannabe Democratic prospects.

• She is a deep-pocketed, well-liked ‘moderate’ Democrat who has been positioning herself recently to appear even more moderate.

• As one political insider told me, “There is only one 800-pound gorilla in California politics right now and it is Dianne Feinstein.”

• She is nearing the end of her political career and has been Jonesing for the governorship since she was mayor of San Francisco.

• Feinstein doesn’t like Davis (she is still p.o.-ed over that Leona Helmsley crack) and still smarts over having been beaten by Pete Wilson.

  So here is THE nightmare scenario:

• Feinstein jumps into the recall alternatives and literally clears the field of other Democrats.

• As governor she would get to appoint her U.S. Senate successor (for starters).

• She offers her Senate seat to Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, thereby ingratiating the Democrats further with the Hispanic community. Hispanics are the key to the future of the state.

• Bustamante would become the first Hispanic U.S. senator.

• Attorney General Bill Lockyer could be appointed lieutenant governor, which would set him up for a post-Feinstein gubernatorial run.

• AND DiFi would also get to appoint a replacement attorney general of her choosing.

• California statewide politics would become the house that Dianne built.

• The only statewide Democrat who doesn’t get a kiss is state treasurer Phil Angelides … but despite huge money he has brought to the party, reportedly nobody likes him anyway.

  The monumental negative consequences for the state of California are to deny any Republican (rich wannabe or famous actor) the first-floor statehouse office for probably a decade.

  The national consequences are also significant. And obviously lost on or ignored by the recall questers.

  If President Bush were to run in 2004 with California in disarray under the incompetent lead of Gray Davis, the conventional wisdom is that he could actually (albeit with difficulty) carry California and its gaggle of electoral votes.

  HOWEVER, if the Dump Davis crowd gets its way, California will probably have a Democratic governor (Dianne Feinstein) who will play hardball to undermine the Bush juggernaut and California could/would be lost to Bush in 2004.

  Sure, there is a wild-card chance in the procedural mishmash of the ‘hey you’ election that Arnold could squeak into the lead and win (if he really wants it). After all, with a no-primary, no-campaign, ‘pick one’ election, the winner of a deeply divided field could become governor with only 300,000 votes.

  If DiFi gets to actually become the Leona Helmsley of California, it will not be because of superior political acumen but because of the epic myopia of the Davis recall crowd.

[NormsRevenge]

Much ado about not much re: DiFi saving the day. Why should she?

Sorry Geoff, but ,, No sale.

[CyberAnt]

"the recall effort will result in handing the state of California to Democrats"

HUH???

[DoughtyOne]

Honest to God, is there a conservative on the planet that hasn't got his head firmly up his --- when it comes to California?

Political pundits search a lifetime to find an opponent with the negatives Gray Davis has. But as bad as Davis' negatives are, they pale in relationship to that of the Democrat party in the state.

They have owned the California State Legislature for Decades. Despite this Governor Wilson left with a $6.5 billion surplus five years ago. Then with a Democrat Legislature and a Democrat Governor, spending went through the roof.

When Davis took over the California state budget was $65 billion. When Davis ran for re-election four years later, he had proposed a $100 billion dollar budget. Once again, he had taken the state from a $6.5 billion surplus to a $25 billion dollar deficit by the time he had to face re-election. Less than one year later the budget has gone south $12 billion dollars more.

California has a $38 billion dollar budget. It's power supply is barely evading blackouts as I type. The state budget is still roughly $30 billion or about 40% more than it was just five years ago. And to top it all off, the state legislature has been Davis' hand maiden for all this.

Now come the prospect of a recall. God only knows why we should have to have one since an election was held about 8 months ago, but for some unknown reason the supposed conservatives in the state remained absolutely mute regarding the fiscal disaster facing the state. They remained mute regarding power, budget deficits and the ballooning size of the budget.

Then just three or four months later, a recall was a great idea. Good Lord, the glaring truth of this escapes everyone.

If things were so bad that we could justify a recall and people would buy into it, why did we fail to sell our candidate and damn Davis just a few months before?

Here Metcalf makes the same glaring error every conservative does regarding the state. Oh we can't elect a Republican in the state. Well if you can't under these conditions then close the damned door on Republicanism and Conservatism, because you're never Never NEVER going to get a better shot at it in ANY state!

If the Republican leadershi+ can't sell an alternative governor and alternative candidates for the legislature under these conditions, then they are so worthless that they should pack up and leave the state. As for conservative writers who continually talk of the inability to take this stated back from the socialists, I would wish they'd take their grandmother's advise and just shut the he!! up.

If you've got nothing positive to say, go play with yourself and leave the driving to us.

[TheAngryClam]

It's true.

Mark Geoff's, mine and the other anti-recall Freepers' words well.

We should just let Davis and the other Democrats take the fall for California's implosion.

[ThePythonicCow]

HUH???

Essentially he's saying that this is good for the Democrats, rather like replacing Torricelli with Lautenberg was good for them in the 2002 New Jersey Senate race.

It gets rid of damaged goods, before the main election, replacing them with electable goods. Feinstein is quite electable in this state - relatively well thought of, moderate and competent (well, relative to many of the better known DemoRats here ;).

A state wide Democrat candidate has to suck big time to lose here. Someone with the negative appeal of Greyout Davis could incite the Republican base, and swing the state wide elections (Senate and Governor) to the Republicans. The Rats are reasonably safe, so long as they don't let such a disaster (for them) happen.

[Djarum]

We should just let Davis and the other Democrats take the fall for California's implosion.

You'd think that would have happened last election, but there he is, sitting in the governor's house.

[TheAngryClam]

That's because Bill "village idiot" Simon ran against him.

And yes, I was one of his enablers, in the primary as well as the general. He better not run again.

NO MULLIGANS FOR BILL SIMON!

[goldstategop]

I disagree with Geoff Metcalf. Its based on a lot of hypothetical "Ifs." Personally, I think we can get a decent Republican conservative like Tom McClintock elected in the fall assuming NONE of the Democrats run, its going to be a cinch to boot Gray Davis and replace him with a responsible steward. I say to Geoff that cowardice and timidity and risk aversiveness has never brought any one any lasting gains. If the Republican Party is too afraid of rocking the boat, we'll look elsewhere for leadership. I mean if Republicans can't take the opportunity to rid themselves of Davis, they don't deserve to be trusted with the leadership of our state. Its that's simple. Geoff, we have a message for those in our party too pusilanimous to do the right thing: lead, follow, or get the hell out of our way, cause Davis will soon be, with or without your help, histoire. And whatta night that will be for the people of California and their future when it finally happens.

[babble-on]

yes, Davis will be histoire, replaced by Feinstein, the most popular politician in California.

[goldstategop]

We'll see won't we.

[goldstategop]

I saw your poll in your tagline. If several Republicans run DiFi will be ushered in for sure. That's why we have to make sure there is but one Republican running to put her far and away. All of those candidates combined add up to 52%. If we blow it, we'll have no one to blame for the disaster but ourselves.

[libertylover]

Here Metcalf makes the same glaring error every conservative does regarding the state. Oh we can't elect a Republican in the state. Well if you can't under these conditions then close the damned door on Republicanism and Conservatism, because you're never Never NEVER going to get a better shot at it in ANY state!

You've pretty much summarized my thoughts on this. However, all of your arguments from the previous paragraphs are based on logic and it doesn't seem that California has a very high percent of people with logic anymore, too many run on pure emotion. From a continent away, it looks like the "takers" have overrun the "makers" by a wide margin.

Pursue the recall and I hope I'm wrong about the voters.

[canuck_conservative]

Contrary to the author's opinion, this is a golden opportunity to RUIN DiFi's political capital!

If she runs, she'll get slammed for political hypocrisy (she promised not to run, after all). She'll have no luck taming the state's budgetary beast, and so will also eventually be seen as incompetent. And after about a year of this ongoing Democratic ineptitude, California might actually see Bush and the Republicans more favorably!

If the Democrats want this thankless job, let them have it. It will only drag them down in the long run. Let the chips fall where they may.

[Kevin Curry]

What a bunch of negative nellies.

Let's look at the wonderful positives that the liberal whackjob California ruling elite has blessed the good people of California with: e.g., some of the most progessive pro-dope and pro-gay laws in the nation. < /sarcasm>

I've predicted over and over again that pro-gay and pro-dope "progressivism" will be found only in the most liberal high tax societies; that peculiar agenda does not fit well within a genuinely conservative society and never will. Why? Because in truth these "don't harm anybody but the adult(s) involved" behaviors DO impose high costs on other people, who are then stuck with paying the tab for the personal indulgence and irresponsibility of others.

California is an object example of the destruction and costs that ensue when a people jettison notions of traditional morality and marginalize the traditional family. Gay Davis is not the prime cause of the woes besetting California--he is merely symptomatic of them. Getting rid of him will not slow the state's descent into liberal hell.

[KC_Conspirator]

Here is the sort of thinking of some: "If we get Davis recalled then the democrats can blame the states budget and energy woes on the Republicans. We should wait until the next election and use it as a campaign issue".

Nonsense.

If anything, this recall effort should be done for the Californian people, who foolishly elected this moron last November because they forgot who put the state in debt and who was responsible for the brown outs.

[BushIsALiberal]

"HOWEVER, if the Dump Davis crowd gets its way, California will probably have a Democratic governor (Dianne Feinstein) who will play hardball to undermine the Bush juggernaut and California could/would be lost to Bush in 2004."

So what? Did it go for Bush in 2000?

[tkathy]

I think it could be a mine field for the Republicans. Lose/lose situation bigtime.

[Tom D.]

I certainly hope that the 2004 election is not a re-run of 2000. When the Democrats are committing suicide, we need to sit down and shut up. If Davis is in office in November of '04, the Democrat Presidential Nominee will have to spend time and money in California rather than taking it for granted, a particularly unplesant situation with the fund raising advantage that Bush will have and the disadvantage that McCain-Feingold has cause the Democrats.

The California situation is so screwed up right now, that whoever is in charge is going to have to make some unpopular moves to straighten it up; thus, even if a Republican wins in a recall effort, there is a good chance that his popularity will begin dropping the day after he takes office.

The Republicans will be better of in '04 if they are running a ticketwide slate with the stench of Davis in the nose of the voters and with a candidate for govenor who has not had to make hard choices before the election. A popular Republican candidate for California Governor can have coat tails for Bush and potential Republican Congressional candidates in '04.

[PGalt]

Interesting comments bump.