Looks like SARS will go to zero by month's end.

World Health Organization ^ | June 15, 2003 | StACase

[StACase]

The important statistic with regard to diseases such as SARS is, in my opinion, the number of active cases. WHO and News organizations don't report this stat. However, WHO since April 10th has reported total number of cases, deaths and recoveries from which the number active cases can easily be derived. So, if my Excel® generated chart of that data is correct, SARS will hit "Zero" active cases before the end of June.

[First Amendment]

What do you think about mainland China? Since we all know they have been lying for some time, do you think that they really have no new cases? It would be nice if someone in China could tell us!

[per loin]

I can find no reasonable excuse to believe a word the Chicoms say, and very much doubt that they have no new cases.

[Future Useless Eater]

StACase, I'm sure your intentions are good, but the only thing you are doing is amplifying what the Chinese WANT us to hear.

The Chinese economy was being trashed by SARS and especially by the travel restrictions. They desperately wanted those lifted, and consulted with the WHO in May, and even got them to visit one province Hebei. The WHO showed them exactly which numbers would be 'tracked' to determine their containment. Instantly, China started reporting 'perfect containment' in virtually EVERY province other than Beijing.

Many provinces which HAD been seeing their case counts double every six days, abruptly flat-lined with NO NEW CASES from May 10th, or May 14th, until now.

Here is just one example, Inner Mongolia...

[abrupt change occurred May 10]
Inner Mongolia's TOTAL 'probable' case count
was doubling every 6 days, then abruptly flat-lined

A similar pattern was observable in Taiwan, where they obviously were reporting just their CRITICAL cases as 'probable' SARS. The death rate within this group was exceeding 90%. Meanwhile, they were also collecting hundreds, and then over 1000 'suspected' cases. [But the world pays no attention to 'suspected' cases and they knew that].

To this day, they still hold WAY back on the numbers they report as 'probable', and maintain a HUGE backlog of hospitalized 'suspected' cases. But something caused them to change gears about May 28th, and completely STOP reporting ANY DEATHS from this 'probable' group. Most likely it had to do with lobbying the WHO to remove their travel restrictions.

Anyway, the same familiar bogus curve appeared in Taiwan's death counts...

Their reported deaths HAD been doubling every six days, but then abruptly flat-lined.

A few days ago, a government watchdog group in Taiwan reported that the government has cremated 363 SARS patients, but Taiwan had only reported 81 having died. I extrapolated out conservativly if they really COULD have had 363 SARS deaths based on where the trend HAD been heading before it flatlined. I found that the numbers could easily have exceeded 363 dead, so the watchdog group sounds very believable.

Taiwan's SARS deaths were DOUBLING every SIX DAYS. I conservatively spotted them one extra days, and doubled their deaths every SEVEN days starting from where the curve turned 'truth-challenged'...

DATE__ - _REPORTED
May 01 -  3 deaths     3 deaths
May 06 - 10 deaths    10 deaths
May 12 - 20 deaths    20 deaths
May 18 - 40 deaths    40 deaths
. . .
May 10 - 81 deaths   356 deaths
May 11 - 81 deaths   393 deaths
May 12 - 81 deaths   434 deaths
May 13 - 81 deaths   480 deaths

We have even less ability to scrutinize mainland China's numbers, since it is illegal to phone, fax, or use the internet to communicate out in any way regarding SARS. Their numbers are even more likely to be fabricated than Taiwan's.

It is VERY unfortunate that the WHO LIFTED the travel restrictions to many Chinese regions including Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Shanxi, Guangdong, and Tianjin.

I can only conclude the WHO decision makers displayed either Hillary-like gullibility, OR, Bubba-like greed for Chinese currency.

Time will tell what happens, and it will be interesting to watch, but your headline would be more accurate if it read...

SARS will LOOK like it has gone to ZERO by month's end.

Keep up the good work on presenting professional looking charts, but please be careful what you conclude, because China and Taiwan's number are VERY much bogus.

[ And to all the newcomer's here... Please try NOT to argue with our persistent SARS disruptor _Jim.
He destroys nearly every thread he ever visits with childish arguments and naysaying, and eventually off-topic and rude attacks]

[StACase]

Thank you for the very thoughtful post. Yes, only time will tell. You've done more with the data than I have, as I've only looked at bottom line totals. If line items are fudged then the conclusions would be erroneous.

If what you say is true, then the UN gets another black eye. I've had respect for WHO because of their success with small pox. Too bad for all of us if a good organizations succumbs to politics as usual. I suppose it wouldn't be too surprising if it did.

[TaxRelief]

Diverse opinions are the secret ingredients to good Freerepublic.com discussions.

_Jim is not the only one who:
"destroys nearly every thread he ever visits with childish arguments and naysaying,
and eventually off-topic and rude attacks."

(I assume this is supposed to be hyperbole?).

Defensiveness has a way of making everyone a bit jumpy.
_Jim thinks the core crowd is over-reacting to SARS and tries to "inject a dose of reality".
I appreciate his and other "SARS-dismissers" inputs:
These guys keep everyone focused on the facts instead of supposition.
They force us to track down data to support our positions.
They prevent us from being sucked into a "hypochondriac moment".

As for the accusations of rudeness? Honestly, your post, telling people not to talk to _Jim and other disrupters,
was as rude as anything they have tossed out.

I suggest that everyone ignore the personal attacks and just stick to the facts.

[TaxRelief]

You show a curve that is expanding logarithmically. At what point do you think it will really level off? We know the number of deaths cannot continue to double until the world's population is eliminated.

[Betty Jo]

Re censorship in China about SARS, see my #34 above.

How outrageous that WHO and CDC are not commenting on this.

This clamping down on the free excahnge of news and opinions on SARS is aiding the spread of SARS.

The "Global Public Health Intelligence Network" (GPHIN) depends on the free flow of info.

Software designed for it mines the internet for SARS and other bits of info.

Guess whose baby it is?

WHO and Health Canada!

The United Nations shoud strongly condemm the effforts by China to stop SARS thoughts, stats and opinions.

The very country who exported SARS to kill the rest of the world is still a roadblock to stopping the spread of SARS.

Shame on China, and shame on CDC and WHO for not protesting!

Any figures that China and WHO and CDC are using are corrupt.

History will record this censorship as a crucial mistake.

[EternalHope]

_Jim has been around long enough to know the basic facts about SARS, but he either chooses to ignore them or they have simply not sunk in. He could be a valuable contributor, but most of the time he chooses to simply heap scorn and ridicule. This does nothing but shut down conversation.

Such behavior is very hard to defend.

Personally, I would appreciate an informed and regular poster who knows the facts about SARS, but is convinced that it is well under control and poses little future risk. I would very much like to hear reasoned arguments supporting this position.

MANY factors will affect how widespread and dangerous SARS actually becomes. Right now we simply do not know. China is transparently lying, but it still seems that we have hit the predicted summer lull. We will not know what to expect until we see what happens in the next cold/flu season.

SARS is NOT certain to become one of the major scourges of mankind. Cholera, for instance, is no real threat except in certain well understood circumstances. Neither is tuberculosis, or many other quite deadly diseases. _Jim (or others) could choose to focus on any number of issues as a productive way to challenge the pandemic potential of SARS.

Since it seems to be too late to put SARS back in the box, these issues will eventually come to the fore. For instance:
> How seasonal is SARS, and why?
> If SARS is seasonal, what should governments be doing NOW to prepare for the next cold/flu season?
> Is there a genetic element to SARS resistance?
> Is immunity permanent?
> Does it have an animal reservoir?
> How does it spread?
> When are people first contagious?
> When does contagion end?
> How do we better protect hospital staff?
> Do we believe China/Taiwan? Do we even believe Canada?
> For that matter, do we even believe the U.S.?
> How badly injured are the survivors?

Some posters are familiar with the math of pandemics. TaxRelief, per loin, and Fl_Engineer are regular posters who come immediately to mind, and we have many others as well. I personally know of some occassional SARS posters with PhD's in relevant areas. Personally, I would find a discussion of the math quite interesting. Although we still do not have enough publicly available info to have confidence in the assumptions used, certain circumstances would lead to a self-limiting outbreak and these can be mathematically modeled.

[StACase]

What's being said here is that the graph I put up is wrong because the data supply to it is largely a lie.

[per loin]

To your list I'd add the issue of asymptomatic spread. I find it incredible that no large scale testing has been done to find whether or not the virus has entered the community at large in a less virulent manner. Someone should be doing random testing of a few thousand people in Hong Kong to give us some baseline data. Hong Kong, because the epidemic there was wide, seems to have about run its course, and its authorities have set up reasonably transparent accounting of cases.

[EternalHope]

What's being said here is that the graph I put up is wrong because the data supply to it is largely a lie.

I know. My post was a response to a suggestion made by FL_Engineer to ignore posts from _Jim.

As concerns your graph, thanks for posting it. Personally, if I were creating/posting it, I would exclude all data from China and Taiwan as obviously flawed.

The resulting graph would show a very encouraging trend. The cause would either be a strong seasonal factor to SARS, successful containment efforts, or both. My bet would be on both. However, regardless of the reason for the currently improving numbers, we will not know what to expect from SARS until we hit the next cold/flu season.

[EternalHope]

To your list I'd add the issue of asymptomatic spread. I find it incredible that no large scale testing has been done to find whether or not the virus has entered the community at large in a less virulent manner.

Good point. However, I am not sure that any tests exist that are sensitive enough to do this kind of testing without a high false negative rate.

[aristeides]

I find it incredible that no large scale testing has been done to find whether or not the virus has entered the community at large in a less virulent manner.

Has it not been done, or is it just not being reported?

[aristeides]

I have recently been reading histories of international peace conferences. The 1918-19 flu hit the Versailles Peace Conference in the winter of 1918-19, and even killed some of the younger participants. There was a serious flu that hit the people at the Congress of Vienna in the winter of 1814-15. I'm not aware of anybody at that congress that it killed, but it laid most of the participants low for some time. Tsar Alexander, who was young at the time, was apparently very sick.

Does anybody know at what time of year the 1918-19 flu hit the Southern Hemisphere?

[per loin]

Sounds like the tree falling in the forest quandry.

[Betty Jo]

http://www.newswire.ca/releases/June2003/16/c3689.html

Ontario Midwives To Speak Out At SARS Inquiry

[aristeides]

NC Officials Say SARS Threat Is Waning (Autopsy Results Expected Later This Week).

[Betty Jo]

Your post #77, Do I have this right,the third man, not the man who died, and not the SARS guy who went to Canada, has "mycoplasma pneumonia" ?

What are the numbers on this co-inky-dinky?

Fl_Engineer,how about a chart that shows how many suspecred SARS turn out to be "mycoplasma"?

Does this play into Dr.Niman and his look out for any pneumonias ?

We dont really know how many people who have died of "mycolasma" pneumonia really had SARS, do we?

_Jim, please dont jump all over my ignorance,I'm just a crazy old parnoid bitty,not a great bio-med expert.

I'm going to google Mycoplasma and see if there is any way to confuse it with SARS.

[Betty Jo]

Myco is a virus.

The symptoms are mostly the same as SARS.

Victims usually dont sie.

So,.... I still ask, why do three people in thesame building have different pneumonias?

[TBall]

Bump