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To: StACase; per loin; Betty Jo; TaxRelief; pram; Lonesome in Massachussets; KellyAdmirer; Orangedog; ..
StACase, I'm sure your intentions are good, but the only thing you are doing is amplifying what the Chinese WANT us to hear.

The Chinese economy was being trashed by SARS and especially by the travel restrictions. They desperately wanted those lifted, and consulted with the WHO in May, and even got them to visit one province Hebei. The WHO showed them exactly which numbers would be 'tracked' to determine their containment. Instantly, China started reporting 'perfect containment' in virtually EVERY province other than Beijing.

Many provinces which HAD been seeing their case counts double every six days, abruptly flat-lined with NO NEW CASES from May 10th, or May 14th, until now.

Here is just one example, Inner Mongolia...

[abrupt change occurred May 10]
Inner Mongolia's TOTAL 'probable' case count
was doubling every 6 days, then abruptly flat-lined

A similar pattern was observable in Taiwan, where they obviously were reporting just their CRITICAL cases as 'probable' SARS. The death rate within this group was exceeding 90%. Meanwhile, they were also collecting hundreds, and then over 1000 'suspected' cases. [But the world pays no attention to 'suspected' cases and they knew that].

To this day, they still hold WAY back on the numbers they report as 'probable', and maintain a HUGE backlog of hospitalized 'suspected' cases. But something caused them to change gears about May 28th, and completely STOP reporting ANY DEATHS from this 'probable' group. Most likely it had to do with lobbying the WHO to remove their travel restrictions.

Anyway, the same familiar bogus curve appeared in Taiwan's death counts...

Their reported deaths HAD been doubling every six days, but then abruptly flat-lined.

A few days ago, a government watchdog group in Taiwan reported that the government has cremated 363 SARS patients, but Taiwan had only reported 81 having died. I extrapolated out conservativly if they really COULD have had 363 SARS deaths based on where the trend HAD been heading before it flatlined. I found that the numbers could easily have exceeded 363 dead, so the watchdog group sounds very believable.

Taiwan's SARS deaths were DOUBLING every SIX DAYS. I conservatively spotted them one extra days, and doubled their deaths every SEVEN days starting from where the curve turned 'truth-challenged'...

DATE__ - _REPORTED
May 01 -  3 deaths     3 deaths
May 06 - 10 deaths    10 deaths
May 12 - 20 deaths    20 deaths
May 18 - 40 deaths    40 deaths
. . .
May 10 - 81 deaths   356 deaths
May 11 - 81 deaths   393 deaths
May 12 - 81 deaths   434 deaths
May 13 - 81 deaths   480 deaths

We have even less ability to scrutinize mainland China's numbers, since it is illegal to phone, fax, or use the internet to communicate out in any way regarding SARS. Their numbers are even more likely to be fabricated than Taiwan's.

It is VERY unfortunate that the WHO LIFTED the travel restrictions to many Chinese regions including Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Shanxi, Guangdong, and Tianjin.

I can only conclude the WHO decision makers displayed either Hillary-like gullibility, OR, Bubba-like greed for Chinese currency.

Time will tell what happens, and it will be interesting to watch, but your headline would be more accurate if it read...

SARS will LOOK like it has gone to ZERO by month's end.

Keep up the good work on presenting professional looking charts, but please be careful what you conclude, because China and Taiwan's number are VERY much bogus.

[ And to all the newcomer's here... Please try NOT to argue with our persistent SARS disruptor _Jim.
He destroys nearly every thread he ever visits with childish arguments and naysaying, and eventually off-topic and rude attacks]

63 posted on 06/16/2003 1:24:02 AM PDT by Future Useless Eater (Freedom_Loving_Engineer)
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To: FL_engineer
Thank you for the very thoughtful post. Yes, only time will tell. You've done more with the data than I have, as I've only looked at bottom line totals. If line items are fudged then the conclusions would be erroneous.

If what you say is true, then the UN gets another black eye. I've had respect for WHO because of their success with small pox. Too bad for all of us if a good organizations succumbs to politics as usual. I suppose it wouldn't be too surprising if it did.

64 posted on 06/16/2003 2:08:47 AM PDT by StACase
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To: FL_engineer; _Jim
Diverse opinions are the secret ingredients to good Freerepublic.com discussions.

_Jim is not the only one who:
"destroys nearly every thread he ever visits with childish arguments and naysaying,
and eventually off-topic and rude attacks
."

(I assume this is supposed to be hyperbole?).

Defensiveness has a way of making everyone a bit jumpy.
_Jim thinks the core crowd is over-reacting to SARS and tries to "inject a dose of reality".
I appreciate his and other "SARS-dismissers" inputs:
These guys keep everyone focused on the facts instead of supposition.
They force us to track down data to support our positions.
They prevent us from being sucked into a "hypochondriac moment".

As for the accusations of rudeness? Honestly, your post, telling people not to talk to _Jim and other disrupters,
was as rude as anything they have tossed out.

I suggest that everyone ignore the personal attacks and just stick to the facts.

65 posted on 06/16/2003 5:44:04 AM PDT by TaxRelief
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To: FL_engineer
You show a curve that is expanding logarithmically. At what point do you think it will really level off? We know the number of deaths cannot continue to double until the world's population is eliminated.
66 posted on 06/16/2003 5:49:07 AM PDT by TaxRelief
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