NBC News: Regular Army in No. Iraq Already Beginning to Surrender; Little Food, Equipment Broken

NBC News | March 16, 2003 | Fred Francis

[Timesink]

Fred Francis reporting live as I type this from Iraq's Northern Front.

Many members of the Iraqi regular army are already coming across to surrender. They report no food. Morale near zero. Everyone from the highest commanders to the lowest privates that remain are openly discussing plans to surrender en masse the moment war starts.

One commander says he has 27 tanks; only 6 work.

Francis reports that US forces expect near-ZERO military response from Iraqi forces, except from the Republican Guard around Baghdad itself. The reason: They actually think they WON in 1991 because we didn't go after them. (Even though that was by UN fiat, not a military decision.) They will fight, unless they've been shocked and awed, heh heh heh.

[John Jorsett]

Good news. I'm glad for every Iraqi soldier that surrenders instead of having to die for that bucket of slime. Putting these guys in front of TV cameras to say what a horror life in Iraq has been and what relief it will be to be rid of Saddam would be a good strategy right now.

[Samurai_Jack]

Gee, didn't the French send replacement parts for the tanks, too? They're slipping.

Maybe the sanctions are having some effect finally

[GladesGuru]

Three rings around Baghdad, hmmm - almost sounds like the rings around the bull's eye.

[George W. Bush]

ewing: And Tikrit defended by Saddams younger son Qusay doesn't look like it will put up much of a fight either.

You know, Saddam doing this is pretty shrewd.

The dregs of his army are deployed. He sent them to the desert with food for a few weeks, knowing the war will start by then. This means he conserved all of their food to give out the reported five-month ration to all the residents of Baghdad.

Capturing them and caring for them represents more manpower, transportation, shelter and food is required along some fairly long allied supply lines in a rough climate. No matter how you slice it, Saddam will slow us a little this way and require us to assume a greater logistics burden.

Saddam is doing this so he doesn't have to feed them and to slow us down by having to take these poorly equipped hungry soldiers off his hands.

I suppose we'll have to do the humanitarian thing and let them surrender to us. The only alternative would be for us to run away from them if they tried to surrender to force us to take care of them.

Even the French might start laughing if our soldiers started running away from enemy troops trying to surrender to them. I guess we're forced to accept their surrender.

Giving your troops away to slow down the enemy is pretty French. I guess Saddam has hung around with Jacques for too long.

[Fury]

What response do you believe Israel would make, and do you think that it would widen the conflict to a full-blown multi-nation regional war?

Hmmm. Well, I believe it depends on the type of WMD attack, if it is successful, etc.

I can give you some possible knowns, which may help answer the first question.

1) A response by Israel would have the potential to cause Allied casulties, depending on the response (depending on location of Allied forces, etc.)

2) Arab countries such as Jordan, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Egypt, Turkey, etc. want Saddam out of power, as they believe he adds instability in the region and threatens their own sundry interests in the region. And they also want Saddam out so that the US leaves the region.

3) A military response by Israel on Iraq which happens to kill civilians could cause an uprising in the populations of the countries mentioned in #2, not to mention fomenting additional anger in several terrorist organizations. However, it may be such that *any* military response by Israel to a WMD attack by Iraq would not be tolerated by the aforementioned countries.

I believe that Israel would respond immediately if nuclear weapons were used in an attack by Iraq. Biological and chemical - I do not know. They may wait to assess how Allied forces are doing. What I would not want is a response by Israel that harms Allied Forces.

As to the second question - leaders of countries in the region will need to ask themselves if they want to hitch their wagon to Saddam and go to war against Israel (if they respond to an attack by Iraq). A war between them and Israel would set these nations back for decades. Is it worth it for them to do so? I do not think so, but I am not an Arab and/or practice Islam, which I think are two main driving forces in the region. But I am a capitalist and although these countries may despise the US, they crave US dollars.

A couple of additional points. Any attack using WMD by Iraq will set France back in the international community for years. They may say "This is what we were trying to avoid!", but reasonable people should conclude that Iraq did not want WMD found, and France knowing that, was complicit in further delays. I think it reasonable to posit that delay caused by France's gyrations have made the region even more unstable.

I still consider Russia a widlcard in all this. Russia certainly wants US dollars as well and they also want the billions of dollars of business that they have ongoing with Iraq. Russia has had their own tremendous problems with Islamlic fanctics and I believe the US will take special care of Russia to ensure they are compensated for lost revenues.

I do not believe that NK is any more apt to attack SK once an attack starts on Iraq. They would presume that the US would be *less* prepared to defend against a NK attack once an attack starts - and there are more forces in the Korean area, as compared to one week ago.

I rambled and my apologies.

[WOSG]

you dont HAVE to watch 60 mnutes, ya know.

[tophat9000]

They will fight, unless they've been shocked and awed,

Don't we call that ZOT! here

[Tuscaloosa Goldfinch]

It IS a bummer when all the hotel provides is CNN. We've traveled twice in the last 6 weeks, once to Memphis and once to Ft. Myers, and neither hotel carried Fox. I should have checked their website beforehand.

[Leatherneck_MT]

The Iraqi soldiers I'm sure are brave men. I just pray that they are not foolish as well. My biggest prayer tho is that they realize that we are not coming to do them harm or to destroy their country. We are coming after a madman who must and will be removed from the face of the planet. I would love to see Iraqi troops fighting alongside American, British, Aussie and Spanish troops when they enter Baghdad to find that stinking weasel who currently commands them (I won't use the word "Lead" because he's not leader).

Pray for all the troops in the Gulf. Ours, as well as theirs.

Semper Fi

[hoosierham]

Then the regular troops need to do a quick about face and dispose of the "execution squads" ; again , such tactics as execution squads are a sign of absolute dictator with no support from his countrymen.

[Theophilus]

Yeah, what if somebody threw a war and only one side came? :-)

[Exit148]

Don't worry, Sam -- all the hotels carry CBSNBCABCCNN.

No more joking! I would be crazy if I didn't have access to Fox this coming week and the days to follow. Do you have a laptop with Fr. access? Some hotels have web-keyboards for their TV. ('course - if you travel alot, you know this)Take lots of breaks!

[wayne_shrugged]

Gee, didn't the French send replacement parts for the tanks, too? They're slipping.

How many gears does a French tank have?

6. 5 in reverse, and 1 in forward (in case the enemy attacks from the rear).

[DB]

Pray for everyone including the Iraqis.

May his will be done.

[Red Dog #1]

A reporter using a stage is the moral equivalent of a translator using a fake accent.

[Jumper]

And Bush's men are pretty shrewd, too. Knowing that Saddam would send his men into the desert with only a limited amount of supplies....

[Woodstock]

Don't forget to Show Your Support for Our Troops!

[Woodstock]

you dont HAVE to watch 60 mnutes, ya know.

There was a day when 60 Minutes was good. Have not watched it for years......

[potlatch]

What will they do with all those who surrender. Do you think they've built POW camps?

[montag813]

Many members of the Iraqi regular army are already coming across to surrender. They report no food. Morale near zero. Everyone from the highest commanders to the lowest privates that remain are openly discussing plans to surrender en masse the moment war starts.

Stock futures are way down overnight Sunday -> Monday. Expect a drop and then buy on the first double-bottom or 1-2-3 pattern.