[ARCADIA]

I've been reading so much about this, so much of "the war starts next week and then it doesn't'" etc. We professional evaluations of all this information overload. So please contribute, explain your analysis and cite your sources (generally, doesn't have to library notation stuff).

TIA - ARCADIA

[Alberta's Child]

My prediction is that after some early, but light, military action, Saddam Hussein is going to flee into exile.

[afraid]

Bush will give Saddam one last chance to disarm. Then the war will start unless Saddam disarms. Then bush will give him one last chance to disarm.

[xm177e2]

I don't think there will be any one time you can say the war has "started." The big time will be when the "shock and awe" begins--if we do go in heavy with air power, it will be all at once, followed by the ground troops. We've been slowly escalating the amount of air power we've put on Iraq, but so far it's been light--when we go in heavy, it will be all at once. The war has already started: some of our boys and girls are already on the ground in Iraq and we've been bombing their air defense sites for months.

Also, I think Bush has a few surprises in store for us and Saddam. We'll see how things turn out.

[cmsgop]

I want to know why the Azores was chosen as a meeting place for Sundays meeting.

[Justice]

Quit Baghdad or war this week, Bush tells Saddam

[LibKill]

I was predicting March 3, the dark of the new moon.

Then we got bogged down in the UN.

Now I don't know what to think.

[evad]

Lemme know when the "inspectors" leave...then I can give you a better guess.

On Brit's show with Tony subbing, all three guests unequivocally said the end of next week, for what that's worth.

[Jhoffa_]

I predict a lightning fast attack, seemingly from out of no-where. Securing the oil fields will be a top priority and Baghdad may actually be left for later.

I also predict that we're screwed if any of the following happen:

1) High body count (civilians or US military, doesn't matter which..)

2) Unforseen circumstances turn this into a protracted battle.

3) It becomes a regional conflict.

If any of the above come to pass, Dubya, the Hawks and Conservatives in general are going to take it right in the neck. It's going to be a political disaster and it might well cost us the Presidency and Congress. People in the media will call it a "needless war" and we will all be hung, tarred and feathered over it.

[Kay]

What if the "shock and awe" is disinformation? What if the war has already started and Bush is using the screw-ups by the UN to cover up what is already occurring?

[Mad Dawgg]

"Without revealing any confidential information, but simply by reviewing published sources and making gut-feel prediction, when do you think the war will start?"

Well since we have destroyed Mobile Sam Launchers and we are flying daily sorties into IRaq and we have reports of Special forces "In Country" I predict the War will start about 30 Days ago!

[TADSLOS]

Let's see...

Factors to consider:

Majority of allied forces ready now, the rest in theater will be ready within 72 hours

Increased CAP and ADA interdiction over the past week

Release of information concerning dialogue with Iraqi military leaders concerning early surrenders

Re-positioning of naval task force from the Med to the Red Sea nearing completion

UN Security council vote set for Monday

U.S., G.B. and Spain in summit on the Azores

France's Defense Minister on the red eye to Arab states

Fences cut along Kuwaiti/Iraqi border

UN troops in Kuwait have pulled out of position

The embedded media are all tanned, rested and in place

Saddam is killing his henchmen left and right

Iraqi forces have been spotted moving southward into defensive positions

US public opinion to get on with it at an all time high (70%+)

Not so important Factors:

The moon

The sandstorms

The heat

Non-Factors at this point:

The French

The Germans

The Russians

Human Shields

...and a whole hellavu lot of other UN tinpots and anti-American peaceniks

So, I'd say midweek next week, Friday at the latest.

(then again, I could be totally wrong. It could happen tonight.)

[The Mayor]

I was wrong before, I may as well be wrong again.

Within a week.

[Wolverine]

Saddams life expectancy:

Current Market Price <<<< constantly updated; click on the links inside.

[Scott from the Left Coast]

Friday night the 21st (after dark Baghdad time). Given the possibility of terror or disruption from internal leftists protesting -- it makes sense to start this on the weekend, when economic centers (business cores in cities) will not be as packed with people, and freeways and such will be less crowded (no rush hours). By starting it on a weekend, you give local civil defense and law enforcement extra time to prepare for Monday AM rush. And if it goes as hoped, much of it could be over early the next week.

[MoscowMike]

Howdy

Not to put too fine a point on it, we have been at war with saddam's regime for twelve years.

We only have a conditional cease fire operating in that conflict, but saddam's regime has not observed one single condition of that cease fire.

Additionally, saddam's regime is the planet's premiere state sponsor of terror. Therefore, post September 11th, we are technically at war with Iraq two times over, explicitly, as a matter of international law and American foreign and domestic policy.

Heretofore, we have prosecuted that war diplomatically, except for combat air patrols over the no fly zones, and the cruise missile bombing of Baghdad in 1998.

This diplomatic exercise has borne no fruit, saddam has only increased the magnitude and potency of his weapons of mass destruction arsenal. Only marginal gains have been made, and those only as a consequence of a quarter million man army on saddam's border.

So, your question is really, when will a shooting phase of the ongoing conflict mark the beginning of the end of this twelve year nightmare?

Hard question, I predicted mid January originally. But we had a long, humiliating, brutal awakening to the fact that france is our enemy in the war on terrorism and its state sponsors in a surreal, seemingly endless UN debate.

The realization that our ally in france is actually not an ally, not even a friend, but rather, an enemy dedicated to American death, destruction, and diminishment, came as a shock.

Now that this has passed, we are left with a UN endgame and the timetable on which the coalition of the willing will proceed, and the domestic landscape is one of resolute determination, even some domestic partners of terror on our political left have begun to call for the Commander in Chief to "get it over with".

The military landscape is different and the same. Our troops are at peak readiness, with every passing day degrading that level of readiness to prosecute this conflcit to its conclusion, they are also calling out to the CinC to proceed. Every passing day also worsens the environmental conditions, with sand storms and rising temperatures.

Finally, each passing day provides saddam with more time to prepare his defenses and maneuver his military.

Given the diplomatic, domestic opinion, and military readiness conditions, and the Iraqi military maneuvering for early advantage, and given that President Bush is a profoundly moral man, mindful of the untoward consequences tht will flow from any further dilly dallying about, I think that troops will move within 48 hours with 70% probability.

90+ percentile probability of MOAB falling to start the show is Thursday/Friday in my opinion.

God speed, American fighting men and President George W. Bush.

And dear Lord look over my nephew, deployed in the theater of operations, and over all of our brave men and women confronting evil, that the American People, and the US Constitution, may survive.

[peteram]

I heard speculation that it will be later next week. It makes sense to me, what with last minute diplomatic efforts winding up about then.

[Hank Kerchief]

On 03/06/2003 Live free or die posted:

March 17 between midnight and 0400 Baghdad time, Here.

That is the correct prediction, and I told him so. It was a guess on his part, he explained. Nevertheless, Monday is the day, and has been set for some time.

Hank

[verity]

Without revealing any confidential information...

My aunt has trimmed her mustache and my uncle has shaved his armpits. Pass it on.

[Delta 21]

I hope that every single one of saddams "palaces" gets a laser guided bomb in the court house square.

[dennisw]

March 27 will be the first day of "shock and awe". Because of the new moon of April 1st.