Freepers: Post opinion on war starting (esp. ex-military freepers, please participate)

3/15/03 | ARCADIA

[ARCADIA]

Without revealing any confidential information, but simply by reviewing published sources and making gut-feel prediction, when do you think the war will start? Do you even think it will start?

[Jhoffa_]

I predict a lightning fast attack, seemingly from out of no-where. Securing the oil fields will be a top priority and Baghdad may actually be left for later.

I also predict that we're screwed if any of the following happen:

1) High body count (civilians or US military, doesn't matter which..)

2) Unforseen circumstances turn this into a protracted battle.

3) It becomes a regional conflict.

If any of the above come to pass, Dubya, the Hawks and Conservatives in general are going to take it right in the neck. It's going to be a political disaster and it might well cost us the Presidency and Congress. People in the media will call it a "needless war" and we will all be hung, tarred and feathered over it.

[Kay]

What if the "shock and awe" is disinformation? What if the war has already started and Bush is using the screw-ups by the UN to cover up what is already occurring?

[ErnBatavia]

Bush will address us later-- probably Tuesday night

That's my window...Shock and Awe March 20 or 21....probably March 21, right after Dan Rather clocks out for the weekend.

[ARCADIA]

Lemme know when the "inspectors" leave...then I can give you a better guess.

There's a certain amount of protocol that needs to take place even if the decision is made to go NOW. We still need to evacuate the inspectors and the French and German diplomatic corps, warn the Israelis, etc.

[jpthomas]

(1) US Air Base there provides good security,

(2) isolation prevents rallying point for mass anti-war demonstrations,

(3) location underscores participation by Spain and Portugal

[ARCADIA]

The troops have opened their chemical gear, which is only effective for 45 days.

Good observation.

[Mad Dawgg]

"Without revealing any confidential information, but simply by reviewing published sources and making gut-feel prediction, when do you think the war will start?"

Well since we have destroyed Mobile Sam Launchers and we are flying daily sorties into IRaq and we have reports of Special forces "In Country" I predict the War will start about 30 Days ago!

[x1stcav]

No fear of anti-war demonstrations/disruptions.

[snippy_about_it]

LOL! By the way TR, I printed out your Cartoon postings on FR and sent them off to the Tarawa, they got them the other day and are passing them around. Thanks!

[ARCADIA]

Because only the Azores has the automated sound proof secure secret bubble for conferencing.

I didn't realize they had a cone of silence. Thanks for the heads up.

[TADSLOS]

Let's see...

Factors to consider:

Majority of allied forces ready now, the rest in theater will be ready within 72 hours

Increased CAP and ADA interdiction over the past week

Release of information concerning dialogue with Iraqi military leaders concerning early surrenders

Re-positioning of naval task force from the Med to the Red Sea nearing completion

UN Security council vote set for Monday

U.S., G.B. and Spain in summit on the Azores

France's Defense Minister on the red eye to Arab states

Fences cut along Kuwaiti/Iraqi border

UN troops in Kuwait have pulled out of position

The embedded media are all tanned, rested and in place

Saddam is killing his henchmen left and right

Iraqi forces have been spotted moving southward into defensive positions

US public opinion to get on with it at an all time high (70%+)

Not so important Factors:

The moon

The sandstorms

The heat

Non-Factors at this point:

The French

The Germans

The Russians

Human Shields

...and a whole hellavu lot of other UN tinpots and anti-American peaceniks

So, I'd say midweek next week, Friday at the latest.

(then again, I could be totally wrong. It could happen tonight.)

[governsleastgovernsbest]

I agree with all, and would add that it is a sign of respect that Pres. Bush is paying to the Blair and Asnar to be travelling to European territory rather than asking them to come to the US.

[cmsgop]

Ahaa! I did not know we had an Airbase there. Learn something new everyday! Thanks

[The Mayor]

I was wrong before, I may as well be wrong again.

Within a week.

[relee]

I want to know why the Azores was chosen as a meeting place for Sundays meeting.

Central meeting location and no protesters.

[oceanview]

Yes, there are alot of risks in this one, much more then 1991.

I would also like to hear peoples opinions of what is going to happen if this thing goes WMD. More then just the standard "nuke 'em" response. Alot of people believe the WMD threat is what really caused us to stop the 1991 ground war. What is going to happen this time? This one is all or nothing if it starts. If Bush starts it, there is no turning back, and if something does happen to cause us to have to stop the attack, our superpower status is gone and so is the Bush 2nd term.

For what its worth, I'm still betting on either a Saddam exile or some other resolution to this that we haven't thought of yet.

[ARCADIA]

I would also like to hear peoples opinions of what is going to happen if this thing goes WMD.

What kind of WMD are you thinking about? At this point, anthrax in Israel is Saddam's only option. I don't Israel will retaliate, despite Sharon's statements.

[Jhoffa_]

Please cease and desist immediately with the BBQ comments.

You're making me hungry.

[pbear8]

Available only in the Azores, the portable Cone of Silence:

[oceanview]

Whether it be nerve gas against our troops, anthrax (whether it is in theatre, in Israel, or any other place like inside the USA). Any of those WMD possibilities.