Freepers: Post opinion on war starting (esp. ex-military freepers, please participate)

3/15/03 | ARCADIA

[ARCADIA]

Without revealing any confidential information, but simply by reviewing published sources and making gut-feel prediction, when do you think the war will start? Do you even think it will start?

[Consort]

Let Saddam escape and follow him to Osama's hideout.

[AndrewC]

Jan 15, 1991	The deadline set by the UN Resolution 678 for Iraq to withdraw.
Jan 16, 1991	First US government statement of Operation Desert-Storm made.  Marlin Fitzwater announces, "The liberation of Kuwait has begun..."  The air war started Jan 17 at 2:38 a.m. (local time) or January 16 at 6:38PM EST due to an 8 hour time difference, with an Apache helicopter attack. US warplanes attack Baghdad, Kuwait and other military targets in Iraq.
Jan 17, 1991	Iraq launches first SCUD Missle attack.
Feb 22, 1991	President Bush issues an ultimatum of Feb 23 for Iraqi troops to withdraw from Kuwait.
Feb 23, 1991	Ground war begins with Marines, Army and Arab forces moving into Iraq and Kuwait.

Now, Saddam may precipitate the war by a preemptive attack on Israel or the U.S. He was successful many years ago with an attack on the U.S.S. Stark. He may try something like that again against an aircraft carrier.

[JustPiper]

Also, I think Bush has a few surprises in store for us and Saddam.

Bump! And agreed!

[JustPiper]

It was reported earlier in the week the military thought they'd taken out the majority of the stationary air force in Iraq.

I agree, it has started because Bush is not going to show his hand and come on TV when it is truly beginning.

[RaceBannon]

I think it is within 12 hours of the orders release as a basic start point, any time after

but, with more things off loading in Turkey as one thread said, it wont be until that stuff is on the ground

Otherwise, they are waiting untill the missile ships are in the red sea, not the med

All bets are off if they think those scuds in southern Iraq are armed and pointing to Kuwait or Israel.

[RaceBannon]

easier to control the avenues of approach, no anti-aircraft missiles because the approach is guarded better than England would be

[RaceBannon]

if Iraq = WMD, then

Iraq POW = KIA

[Diddley]

I, too, believe that the war has already started (in earnest now, in addition since 1991).
Special Forces, etc., are raising havoc (but "quietly"), gaining mucho intelligence, establishing hit-points, rigging explosives and such, . . .
But the delays are frustrating me. My only salvation is that I believe "moron" Bush is playing a masterful chess game.
My guess is Mar 18 +/- 2 days. (I know that that isn't very precise.)

[elbucko]

The day after we capture Bin Laden.

[finnman69]

By Friday

[reaganite]

"That's why I pray something else happens, some type of internal collapse, something."

This is what I anticipate...an internal collapse. Iraqis are probably becoming emblodened by our strong resolve (thanks to Bush and Blair) and presence. It's not on the radar screen, publicly, but I believe an internal collapse is highly probable. This, in itself, may be the major reason for this nerve-wracking delay.

[TADSLOS]

I think you are saying they are doing "pre-war" missions. Things to make sure everything goes smoothly once the main event starts

Correct. Shaping operations are missions that the commander initiates to mold the battlefield to his satisfaction prior to commencing combat operations with his main force. Taking out the ADA sites in Iraq is a good example. Another example might be identifying, marking and clearing lanes through obstacles such as minefields and even psychological operations against the enemy. Any mission that supports laying the ground work to the support of the tactical plan is part of shaping operations.

[wardaddy]

Centered logistics for all three....and so Blair and the Spaniard would not look like they were coming to W's beckoning....perception-wise.

Fairly easy to secure quickly too.

[xzins]

It appears that the UN route is drawing to a close. That's what the Azores meeting means.

There must be a general call by the coalition of the willing for inspectors/journalists/non-Iraqis to leave the country. If there were one final question put to the UN, that would take place tomorrow. They would know by the end of the day if anyone were interested. The warning could be issued Tuesday. Allowing 72 hours for folks to gather their things and then leave, that would put us to Friday as the earliest date that an air campaign could begin.

Protection against a chemical attack would be to deploy forces to regions unknown to the enemy. I expect the ground forces to move shortly thereafter.

Earliest is Friday/Saturday.

[risk]

And dear Lord look over my nephew, deployed in the theater of operations, and over all of our brave men and women confronting evil, that the American People, and the US Constitution, may survive.

Many thanks to your nephew and all his comrades in arms. We'll never forget their gift to us.

[judicial meanz]

Your analysis of our operations is excellent and right on point. I want to add my two cents worth on the Iraqi options available, so we can attempt to see the other side of the coin.

My anaysis of the "Saddam options"

1) Saddam knows his regular army conscripts will fail him, so he is using them as a collapsing outer perimeter that will slow our advance and give us some early positive inspiration.

2) he is concentrating his Republican Guard in the middle perimeter to increase the battle pitch as his outer perimter collapses, and cause casualties to the Coalition forces. The Republican Guard is not as trustworthy as it was in the 1980s, and it will partially surrender while some units fight.

As the battle pitch increases, he is expecting the liberal hand wringing over casualties to begin in the US, so he can indirectly exert political presure on the President.

3) The last perimeter is the Special Republican Guard,who will try to initiate the urban warfare phase of the war in Bagdad city proper.

(He will want them to cause us as much grief as they can, in order to provoke the anti war and aligned political factions to direct action and mass demonstrations. This is his method of placing more and more indirect political pressure on the President )

He may not be a good general, but he is a decent politician, and he will count on the left to turn up the political pressure and make the war politically untenable.

4) if Saddam uses WMD, he will not use them in the opening phase of the war, except to draw Israel into the conflict aligned with the United States. That attack would probably be chemical or biological, and reason for it would be to draw in Arab Allies when Israel responds.

By drawing in Arab allies, and making this a regional war, he can draw it out for a longer duration, make us take more casualties, and exert direct worldwide political pressure through the Axis of Weasels to a negotiated end of the conflict with him in power.

(Saddam has always wanted to be the "Sword of Islam" and go into the history books as the guy who made Israel extinct.)

5)IF he has nuclear weapons, he will use them as a counter-attack means if it appears the coalition has the initiative to kill him. He will then try to form a viable ground couter-attack after the use of these weapons, to cause more injury and damage and maximize his momentary advantage.

6) if he has the chutz to do the things described in #5, the United States and British military will make the worlds largest crater out of his nation, if Israel doesnt beat them to it.


Just an analyis of the other side. Never hurts to take a peek into the mind of your opponent.

[TADSLOS]

You bring up great points and considering Saddam's past thought processes, his most probable course of action if we face him in and around Baghdad in a conventional sense. However, I'm not convinced that we will see our forces thrust on a circle of defenses in the traditional style of penetration by brute force. This action is going to happen fast, with all allied elements working in concert in simultaneous fashion (shock and awe is the catch phrase).

We haven't heard much of anything about our special operations forces, especially the Ranger Regiment, and the indiginous army we've trained from volunteers provided by the Iraqi National Congress. I suspect their infiltration and vertical envelopement of key terrain and facilities in and around Baghdad is going to be the catalyst to quicken the collapse of any defensive effort Saddam may attempt.

Our conventional ground forces will, most likely, roll up the exposed gaps of any remaining defenses around Bagdhad, then it will be a matter of clearing hotspots of resistance from the few loyal diehards of Saddam. This is not to say that this operation will be child's play, but the shock effect will most likely reduce casualties on both sides and dramatically speed up capitulation of the regime.

Of course, as you pointed out, Saddam has his fingers on the WMD trigger and he's about to be a man with nothing left to lose. That's the wild card. It's really hard to predict if he'll squeeze the trigger at the outset or wait as some show of grand finale.

Embedding the press is designed to soften the political pressure to stop short visa vis Desert Storm. The media going along for the ride can also document and confirm our reasons for taking down the regime, further quelling political friction of the campaign to oust Saddam and stabilize the region. The down side to having the press in such numbers is the certainty that several of their number will violate the rules of media engagement and post a realtime report of planning and executing tactical actions (one already has and has been pulled out). I don't think DoD would put them there unless they are counting on this going down so quick, that whatever reporting they do won't have a major negative effect on our commanders ability to prosecute their plans.

[judicial meanz]

Once again, you made excellent points!

I dont think his plans are going to come to fruition. As you said, vertical envelopment and coordinated actions will ruin his dark little planning and put him on the defensive from the start, with little command and control of his troops.

He will end up in a nasty little bunker with a bullet in his head, just like Hitler.

[ARCADIA]

Thank-you. You seemed so well-informed that I checked your home page. I really like your quotes, especially -

Don't be a one option leader;always think about the next battle position"

Applies to life, as well.

[MeekOneGOP]

I remember especially liking the Mateus wine. Yummy ! . . .