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Posted on 02/21/2003 10:37:41 AM PST by JohnHuang2
PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest Gallup Poll finds that overall public support for military action against Iraq has faded slightly from the recent high point registered shortly after Secretary of State Colin Powell's speech to the U.N. Security Council on Feb. 5, but remains in solid majority territory at 59%. However, Americans continue to want international cooperation for such action. Support for war without a new U.N. vote authorizing it is only 30%, down 9 points from a poll conducted Feb. 7-9.
The poll also shows that Americans opposed to a war with Iraq are more intense in their beliefs than are those who favor military action. This results in a situation in which the number of Americans who feel intensely that war should be avoided is roughly equal to the number who are intensely in favor of war. The poll, conducted Feb. 17-19, finds that 59% of Americans say they favor going to war in an attempt to remove Saddam Hussein from power. That's down slightly from the 63% who expressed this view right after Powell's United Nations appearance.
General support as measured by responses to this question has remained fairly stable since last fall, mostly in the mid- to high-50% range, except for a slight 5-point surge following Powell's presentation at the United Nations. In his appearance, the secretary of state presented evidence that purported to show Saddam Hussein had not complied with the U.N. resolution ordering Iraq to disarm. Since then, of course, the world has witnessed many large antiwar demonstrations across the globe, as well as a less-than-positive reaction by France in the U.N. Security Council to some of Powell's evidence, all of which could have affected American public opinion to some degree.
A special analysis of public support for the war shows that about half of those who express support would not be "upset" if the government decides against war with Iraq, leaving 29% of all Americans who support a war and would be upset if the government backed out now. At the same time, less than one-quarter of those who oppose military action would not be upset if the government persists in going to war, leaving 30% of all Americans who oppose a war and would be upset if it occurs. This disparity in intensity of feeling on the two sides of the issue leaves the situation as a standoff in public opinion among those who feel most intensely about it -- with about 3 in 10 on either end of the spectrum.
This analysis shows that 4 in 10 Americans (41%) express what might be called a "permissive" opinion -- they say they are unsure which course of action they prefer (3%), or they lean toward one option but will not be upset if the government chooses to do the opposite (38%). This latter group includes 30% who lean in favor of war and 8% who lean against it.
The current results show a slight shift against war among those who feel intensely about the issue. In September 2002, with 58% of Americans giving general support for the war, the intense public tilted toward war by 34% to 26%, compared with the 29% to 30% standoff that currently exists. Still, about the same number (40%) could be classified as having a "permissive" opinion, willing to accept whatever the government decided.
Support for War Without U.N. Approval Drops The appetite for U.S. military action against Iraq without United Nations support has waned over the last week and a half. In the latest poll, just 30% of Americans say the United States should take action unilaterally, down from the 39% who felt this way in the immediate aftermath of Powell's speech (in the Feb. 7-9 poll). Forty percent now say the United States should wait for a second U.N. resolution of support for war (up from 34% in the Feb. 7-9 poll), and another 26% oppose war regardless of what the United Nations does.
These results underscore the pivotal role that a new United Nations vote can have in helping Americans formalize their views on the pending war. As can be seen, about two-thirds of Americans (66%) can be characterized as opposing a war without a new U.N. vote. At the same time, about the same number (70%) can be characterized as supporting the war if the United Nations does in fact authorize it. Right now, it is unclear whether the United States can get enough votes in the U.N. Security Council -- without a veto from France, Russia, or China, -- to get that authorization. These results are very similar to those reviewed above based on an analysis of the intensity of public opinion. About 3 out of 10 Americans are on either end of the spectrum -- those who generally support war regardless of what the U.N. does and/or are unlikely to change their minds, versus those who generally oppose war regardless of what the U.N. does and/or are also unlikely to change their minds. The remainder have more mixed feelings about the situation, and can be swayed by the specific conditions under which movement toward war may come about.
Public Perceives Tarnished Bush Image
Americans recognize that President Bush's image has suffered in the eyes of other countries' leaders as he continues to forcefully argue his administration's case for war in Iraq.
A majority of Americans, 55%, now say that leaders of other countries "don't have much respect" for Bush, while 40% disagree. Prior to 9/11, Americans were ambivalent about the respect of world leaders for the then-newly elected president. But in the first Gallup Poll following the onset of the war on terrorism in which this "respect" question was asked (February 2002), 75% of Americans felt that world leaders respected Bush. A year later, at the beginning of this month, Americans were evenly divided in their views of whether or not world leaders respected Bush. Now, in the wake of worldwide antiwar protests and the strongly negative reaction of such leaders as French President Jacques Chirac, the American public has moved to a distinctly more pessimistic assessment of Bush's image around the world.
It is interesting to note that the current figures are about the same as those measured twice during President Bill Clinton's tenure in office -- the first time in September 1994, and the other in May 2000.
Bush Job Approval at 58%
Bush's image has not changed dramatically among Americans in the past month. The just-completed poll shows Bush with a 58% job approval rating. That's a drop of three points from the Feb. 7-9 poll, but just a little below the average of 60% across the nine separate Gallup Polls conducted since the beginning of the new year.
Bush's job approval ratings are healthy by historical standards, but clearly much lower than they were throughout 2002. The current 58% rating remains about three points above the historical average for all presidents since World War II. Bush received the highest job approval rating in Gallup Poll history -- 90% -- in September 2001.
Survey Methods
The latest results are based on telephone interviews with 1,002 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 17-19, 2003. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
So that's it then? It's either UN authorized or it's unilateral? I have been wondering what the new definition of unilateral was. I couldn't figure it out until now.
Have a great weekend, y'all :^)
At first, I thought the explanation for the difference was that some of the 40% percent consists of people who would oppose the war even if the UN passed a second resolution. But no, that's not it: according to Gallup, 26% would oppose the war even if the UN did pass such a resolution. So, all of the 40 percent are people who make their support contingent on what the UN does.
So, what's the real number, 59% or 70%? I think it is the latter (which, incidentally, matches the most recent Fox poll on this question). I say that because as of right now, the UN had not yet passed a second resolution, and this fact in turn may explain some of the "opposition" to the war.
Incidentally, don't even get me started on those people who think that nations like France and Syria should have a say on how we protect American citizens, allies, and interests against people like Saddam Hussein.
It's an irrelevant question which the media will use to further their america hating agenda.
The question is whether Americans respect President Bush and the answer is YES!!!
As Dick Morris pointed out on Foxnews, this question is specifically engineered by the pollsters to yield a leftist result.
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That's my feeling and I don't think I am alone!
Pardon me but I'm confused.
Firstly, I don't understand how "intensity" is measured via a poll...is that anything like gloming voter intent from unmarked Florida ballots??
Secondly, I'm no math whiz, but HOW does 59% of Americans still in favor of going to war to oust Saddam 'roughly equal' the 41% who would be left over out of the usual 100% considered the top end in polls...discounting the 'undecided', of course??? What...did they poll 118 percent of the population, or do they define 'roughly' much differently than the rest of us??
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If we take the number of people who are strongly opposed to the war, and add in the number of people who would oppose the war if the UN does not approve it, plus the people who now oppose the war because they follow the views of Larry Hagman, plus the people who worry about the effect of war on the whales, and add in the people who live on East 53rd Street and all the ones who let Jimmy Carter tell them what to think, we see that 99% of the public could be said to oppose the war if we strech things far enough and munge the numbers any way we want.