[bonesmccoy]

Based upon the volume, size, and color of the plume; one wonders if the plume in the last frame has significant amounts of tile silica and only minimal amounts of insulation or ice. This would give the relatively large amount of white plume for such a small object.

Another freeper noted that the orientation of the insulation/ice object changes the impact force based upon the surface area of the impact. The individual made the observation that if the object had impacted "edge" on, the damage would be greater than if the object impacted flatly on the leading edge.

The white plume seen in this frame may be partly composed of silica particles from pulverized tiles. Given the substantial size of the plume when compared to the relatively small size of the object, one wonders if the plume size is actually the density and size one would expect from an insulation approximately 2 feet in diameter.

Once it is established that ET insulation alone can not create the plume seen (via the colorimetric test), it should be possible to create a second test scenario. A mixture of ice and ET insulation can be created to mimic estimated launch conditions. That mixture should be fired at the test article and the plume colorimetrics studied.

The resulting data could be compared to the photographic evidence and permit the composition of the plume to be evaluated in a scientific manner.

It is my contention that if one compares the plume from a 2' piece of ET insulation to the plume in the photo: 1. The photo has a plume with greater white tones 2. The photo has a plume in greater size than expected. 3. The differences in size of plume and tone are accounted for by silica pulverized by the impact.

Knowing hindsight is always 20/20, I welcome discussion and criticism. This posting is meant to contribute to the scientific process and only suggests one scientific method to approach the accident investigation.

Thanks... God bless and rest the crew of STS-107 and 51-L.

[VOA]

bump

[Robert A Cook PE]

Interesting observation and recommendation.

[aruanan]

My observation is that if the plume was composed primarily of ET insulation, the plume should have the color characteristics of ET insulation. This plume has a white color.

Unfortunately, ET insulation is orange/brown in color.

An aerosol or dust of something that is dark when solid (like dirt, for instance) can look lighter when dispersed in the air.

[capitan_refugio]

Good science, bones. Hypothesize, test, analyze, conclude, and re-hypothesize. That is how NASA should be doing it. I only wish they had considered some "worst case" scenarios before they brought those poor souls home.

[Thud]

Long useful thread.

[clouda]

Very interesting. This is a great thread!

[Jael]

Thought I would add this to this thread.

Panel Seeks to ID Object Near Shuttle / STS-107
Yahoo! News ^ | 2/9/03 | Marcia Dunn - AP


Posted on 02/09/2003 1:18 PM CST by NormsRevenge


SPACE CENTER, Houston -

Investigators are trying to identify an object spotted near Columbia shortly after it reached orbit as they try to determine what caused the shuttle to break apart.



Retired Adm. Harold W. Gehman Jr., who is leading an independent board investigating the disaster, told reporters Sunday that the tracking data from the U.S. Space Command Center in Nebraska could potentially be water that is routinely dumped from the shuttle, which then turned to ice.


"It could well have been an on-orbit piece associated with the shuttle which was supposed to have been there," Gehman said. He stressed that the report still needs to be analyzed.


Meanwhile, investigators continued to study a 2-foot section of Columbia's wing and a 300-pound object that appears to be a door panel from one of the shuttle's wheel wells found in Texas.


The wing includes the carbon-covered edge designed to protect Columbia's insulating tiles during re-entry and could provide hard evidence of what went wrong, NASA (news - web sites) Administrator Sean O'Keefe said Saturday.


Gehman would not comment Sunday on whether the wing piece was from the shuttle's left side, which could prove significant because Columbia's troubles began in the left wing.


In the shuttle's final eight minutes the morning of Feb. 1, temperatures surged in the left landing gear compartment, and the brake lines began overheating one by one. Sensors began showing overheating across other areas of the left wing and adjoining fuselage before Mission Control lost all contact.


O'Keefe spoke following a memorial service at Louisiana's Barksdale Air Force Base, where pieces of the shuttle are being stored. Searchers have recovered remains of all seven astronauts and more than 12,000 pieces of debris that rained down across two states.


Every possible scenario is still being considered, from the impact of a large chunk of hard insulating foam that hit the shuttle seconds after liftoff Jan. 16, to a strike from a piece of space junk, to a lightning-like electrical phenomenon.


Late Saturday, NASA said the U.S. Strategic Command apparently tracked something flying near Columbia after it had reached orbit. Space agency spokeswoman Eileen Hawley said it was possible the object came from Columbia, but stressed "this is very raw data" that had just been turned over to investigators and that it was too early to speculate.


Imagery experts also are poring over a high-resolution photo taken by an Air Force telescope a minute or two before Columbia broke apart during re-entry. Some have suggested the leading edge of the left wing looks as if it could be damaged, and the photo shows a gray streak that could be a fiery plume trailing the wing.


NASA continues to gather evidence through an extensive debris search, centered primarily in Texas and Louisiana.


Meanwhile, about 1,000 people gathered Saturday in a church across the street from the debris search command center in Lufkin to remember the astronauts as a fun-loving but heroic group.


NASA astronaut Jeff Ashby, who recalled visiting the crew's lively table at the NASA Christmas party, said the crew was a generous, caring bunch with a great sense of humor. "They actually baked cakes for their training instructors on their birthdays," he said.


Gov. Rick Perry told the group at the First Baptist church that the astronauts "remind us that the future belongs to the brave and the bold."


In Hemphill, searchers also paused to observe the exact moment the shuttle broke up a week before. "There was total silence in the room, about a minute, and then we went on with life," said Marq Webb, U.S. Forest Service spokesman.


___


On the Net:

NASA: http://spaceflight.nasa.gov

[meema]

Sorry I forgot to include you in my just posted message, bones! Thank you for starting us going on this thread! How could I have forgotten YOU!?

[Publius6961]

Using the test article experiment model, engineers should fire at the same velocity an estimated mass of ET insulation

I keep seeing this simplistic (senseless) statement repeated by bowling balls.
It's getting irritating.

The test should allow for air density at the altitude the event happened, and the acceleration for the distance the object traveled, beginning at the initial relative velocity between the two objects (zero) and at the end (some modest amount).

In other words, the foam could not have hit at a relative velocity of "several thousand" miles per hour...
It didn't have that much distance through which to accelerate.

[leadpenny]

Reps. Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA) and Bart Gordon (D-TN) are on C-SPAN's Washington Journal right now and for the next 45 minutes. They are the Space & Aeronautics Subcommitte Chairman and Ranking Member.

[Budge]

Thought y'all might want to look at this re: timeline(s)

FR post live observations.

[537 Votes]

Knowing hindsight is always 20/20

You would think that for $3 billion a year spent on the Shuttle program, NASA could afford a little foresight. Why couldn't NASA have done the same thing that other FReepers are doing now? The seven Columbia crewmembers would still be in orbit, not out of danger, to be sure, but still alive and capable of rescue.

[diotima]

ON NOW! UNSPUN with AnnaZ and Mercuria!
6pm pdt/9pm edt

We'll be speaking with Freedom Alliance's FRED GEDRICH about Kofi & Krew (and Saddam, too!). PLUS... Boneheaded Lie-beral Quotes Commie Rat Bastard of the Week Anna's NEW Waste Of Ink Award

Click HERE to LISTEN LIVE while you FReep!

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[GOPJ]

bump for a later read...

[RnMomof7]

FYI

[coloradan]

Bookmark bump.

[CyberAnt]

Thank you so much for your comprehensive explanation for us laymen out here who are so interested or curious as to what happened to Columbina.

My question is this: From any of the video you have seen, did the insulation fall on the top edge of the left wing or did it strike the wing farther down (actually under the left wing).

The reason I'm asking that is that it was reported that David sent an email to his brother saying he had taken photos of the left wing which had some type of damage on it. I never did find out exactly what that meant.

I know that David could only see a small portion of the top part of the left wing - so if he saw some type of damage, is there any conclusion as to what could have caused that damage?

[Boundless]

Numerous reporters, with varying degrees of insight and
incompetence, are focusing on the NASA internal emails,
and writing stories like this AP one:

"...NASA experts debated over five days the risks
to the space shuttle, moving from a telephone inquiry
about tires to remarkably accurate fears focusing
on the left wing."

The question they aren't raising, and which I'll raise here, is:

Are these emails unusual?

Or are they typical for every mission?

Is this normal worst-case-what-iffing, or exceptional?

This question has also been raised (not by me) in
sci.space.shuttle. If it gets answered there, I'll
quote it here. (And it may not get answered there,
because it's buried in a huge thread that's also
contaminated by a persistent net crank.)

I might add that because of the NASA scenario-running
that was done, had the orbiter lasted another minute
or two, I'll bet we'd have heard calls for bailout prep.
Reportedly, off-line ground discussions were already
leaning that way, because at the very least, key data
on tire and landing gear condition was either absent or
unreliable.

[mrb1960]

My one question is this: If it was ice that hit the wing, then why in the world was it launched in the first place?

I would think after the Challenger disaster, which resulted from cold temps and a bad seal, people would be looking at the effects of cold temperatures and ice build up during a launch. WOULD YOU TAKE OFF IN A 747 IF THERE WAS ICE ON THE WINGS???

[snooker]

Your analysis is thorough. But there is one big unknown. The foam likely broke loose because of ice intrusion. I don't see how anyone could know or calculate the amount of ice that was either in the foam, on the foam or in the debris field that hit the shuttle.

The cloud of small particles showering off the wing say to me that what hit the wing was sufficient to smash the tiles into small pieces. I doubt foam alone would do this.

It will be interesting to see what NASA says.

snooker