Observation on TPS damage on Orbiter

NASA photos | 2-3-03 | BoneMccoy

[bonesmccoy]

In recent days the popular media has been focusing their attention on an impact event during the launch of STS-107. The impact of External Tank insulation and/or ice with the Orbiter during ascent was initially judged by NASA to be unlikely to cause loss of the vehicle. Obviously, loss of the integrity of the orbiter Thermal Protection System occured in some manner. When Freepers posted the reports of these impacts on the site, I initially discounted the hypothesis. Orbiters had sustained multiple impacts in the past. However, the size of the plume in the last photo gives me pause.

I'd like to offer to FR a few observations on the photos.

1. In this image an object approximately 2-3 feet appears to be between the orbiter and the ET.

2. In this image the object appears to have rotated relative to both the camera and the orbiter. The change in image luminosity could also be due to a change in reflected light from the object. Nevertheless, it suggests that the object is tumbling and nearing the orbiter's leading edge.

It occurs to me that one may be able to estimate the size of the object and make an educated guess regarding the possible mass of the object. Using the data in the video, one can calculate the relative velocity of the object to the orbiter wing. Creating a test scenario is then possible. One can manufacture a test article and fire ET insulation at the right velocity to evaluate impact damage on the test article.

OV-101's port wing could be used as a test stand with RCC and tile attached to mimic the OV-102 design.

The color of the object seems inconsistent with ET insulation. One can judge the ET color by looking at the ET in the still frame. The color of the object seems more consistent with ice or ice covered ET insulation. Even when accounting for variant color hue/saturation in the video, the object clearly has a different color characteristic from ET insulation. If it is ice laden insulation, the mass of the object would be significantly different from ET insulation alone. Since the velocity of the object is constant in a comparison equation, estimating the mass of the object becomes paramount to understanding the kinetic energy involved in the impact with the TPS.

3. In this image the debris impact creates a plume. My observation is that if the plume was composed primarily of ET insulation, the plume should have the color characteristics of ET insulation. This plume has a white color.

Unfortunately, ET insulation is orange/brown in color.

In addition, if the relative density of the ET insulation is known, one can quantify the colorimetric properties of the plume to disintegrating ET insulation upon impact.

Using the test article experiment model, engineers should fire at the same velocity an estimated mass of ET insulation (similar to the object seen in the still frame) at the test article. The plume should be measured colorimetrically. By comparing this experimental plume to the photographic evidence from the launch, one may be able to quantify the amount of ET insulation in the photograph above.

4. In this photo, the plume spreads from the aft of the orbiter's port wing. This plume does not appear to be the color of ET insulation. It appears to be white.

This white color could be the color of ice particles at high altitude.

On the other hand, the composition of TPS tiles under the orbiter wings is primarily a low-density silica.

In the photo above, you can see a cross section of orbiter TPS tile. The black color of the tile is merely a coating. The interior of the tile is a white, low-density, silica ceramic.

[bonesmccoy]

awhh... that's okay... i'm just wondering ...

Just found the video from California...
http://www.bruenjes.org/columbia/columbia_breakup.rm

[freepersup]

It seems a daunting task, but worthy of the effort. I wonder if NASA will reach the same conclusion/s and be motivated to look for clues uprange ? I appreciate your effort in cranking out the math calculations.

NASA stated that they had scoured around 70% of one significant wide ranging debris field and 80% of another in Texas. I was surprised to see the percentage as high as it was.

[Budge]

We have Halfbubbleoffleve's overlay program also posted here.

Freepersup, use the e-mail in 1473 and resend. Nothing yet.

[bonesmccoy]

Hey NASA: Need an airborne posse to scan the orbiter ground track for debris in California/Nevada?

Get those astronomers to correlate their photos to the exact coordinates and you'll know where to send your posse.

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[bonesmccoy]

You can probably do thermal analysis to figure out how much debris would actually make it to the ground with particular parameters.

Thank Jamieson for his calculus. I was only trying to teach basic ballistics.

Jamieson is trying to account of atmospheric effects like drag. That's far more challenging.

I hope he can do some math on the object seen by the astronomers in California.

NASA could use that info.

If they don't, we can go without them and enjoy the ride.

[freepersup]

You sir, will be getting a conventional e-mail very soon. Ding* Why there it is now-

[Budge]

1781 - Bones, is that flash at the very first of the video debris? The second one obviously is.

[freepersup]

One only need think about the flash or color produced by meteorites that are only the size of a grain of sand (sometimes) and how they appear to create quite a trail in the sky.

re: the California video- You can see the shedding debris hesitate as it leaves the ship, is caught in the trailing burble and flutters or loops.

[freepersup]

Atmospheric drag would be a major factor for an initial period of time and then as the forward speed diminishes, gravity would become the primary force acting upon the objects. Something akin to the shape of a generic walking cane's curved handle. A sweeping curve or radius transitioning into a relatively straight line projecting towards earth. The jet stream and other winds aloft would have to be factored in. The shape and mass of the object and their known or predictable aerodynamic properties in freefall would also be a consideration.

A math junkie should be salivating about right now, contemplating the sumptuous feast of probabilities and calculations that await their nimble fingers touch upon a very worn set of keypads affixed to the ole trusty Texas Instruments scientific calculator.

[XBob]

I got it working, most lovely. Excellent work.

Is there a way to turn off the movable image?

is there any way to resize the movable image?

[Budge]

Got it, thanks. It is on my Fotki site along with this, along with two sizes:

XBob, think you (or someone here) could overlay this on an east Texas/western Louisiana map?

[Budge]

I think you should do another one like this only with the shuttle mounted to the ET with SRB's attached. :)

[freepersup]

Ladies and gentlemen...

in... a... dazzling... fly-by...

may... I... present... to... you...

The Unofficial Free Republic Shuttle Columbia Inquiry Board and Air Armada

(sounding like a swarm of angry killer bees eminating from a distance point on the horizon, rapidly reaching a crescendo, mankind instinctively reacts in fight or flight mode, yearns for the simpler days of fighting terradactyls)

[Cold Heat]

Best I can do is be a transportation director, LOL! I have a SUV and like to drive.

Let's loadem up and movem out!

[freepersup]

LOL-

No doubt a few erstwhile amateur gumshoe detectives/shuttle junkies, are out beating the bushes in a case of what if. Or more likely, when people enjoy the outdoors now, they will have a heightened sense of awareness to their surroundings in an effort to discover debris.

NASA would do well to notify residents of the western states Columbia passed over, to begin an awareness program when in the outdoors. They could do the calculations and define areas of probability where objects are likely to be found. Have we reached this conclusion before NASA ?

[XBob]

it may have been me, perhaps not. I recorded the live RADAR image from a weater site.

Please, I understand this is not exactly 'debris' per se, but the ionized air from the debris.

[freepersup]

WOW! That's great Budge- re: your FOTKI site.

I got some good news and some bad news...

First the good news- The highest compliment I can pay you, is to let you know that I bookmarked your FOTKI site.

Now the bad news- (it's a compliment too) I'm not who you think I am... I am going to have to impound your FOTKI site as evidence and serve you and your pals here with subpoenas. You are hereby directed to appear before the Shuttle Columbia Investigative Inquiry Board and to testify as to what you know and how you know it. That goes for all your wiseacre friends here at this darn thread. YOU GOT ME ?

[XBob]

1775 - "If your calculations are correct, the object is on the ground East of Nevada-95 and southeast of Tonopah. "

That put's it near the top of the diagonal portion of the cal/nev border, not far inside. I thought the owens valley was not far on the west side of the border.

[Budge]

I recorded the live RADAR image from a weater site.

If you still have that would you be kind enough to e-mail it, or point me to it?

Yes, not 'debris' per se, but earlier weather radar shots (don't remember where they were) may give some indication of possible debris amognst the ionized air.

[freepersup]

Perfect ! I'm crazy about SUV's LOL-

I took the slogan; My kid beat up your honor student- which is a play on; My kid is an honor student at ____ ?

and came up with; My SUV beat up your hybrid car !

Seriously- in 3-5 days from now I have a hunch that NASA is going to be orchestrating either more search parties out west or issuing a directive to the western states on what to do with found debris.

So far NASA states that the last (westerly) piece of debris found on the ground (uprange) has been west of Granbury, Texas.

For obvious reasons- that is not the last place they will find debris uprange. In fairness to them, there is an enormous amount of real estate yet to be searched if compelling conclusions are to be reached. Cost will be a factor at some point. If scientific data in hand supports sufficient facts enabling them to reach a just conclusion, the chances of ever widening searches will diminish.

They will have to reiterate the law and the consequences of violating it, regarding treasure hunters out west, repeatedly, over the course of the next 12-24 months.