Observation on TPS damage on Orbiter

NASA photos | 2-3-03 | BoneMccoy

[bonesmccoy]

In recent days the popular media has been focusing their attention on an impact event during the launch of STS-107. The impact of External Tank insulation and/or ice with the Orbiter during ascent was initially judged by NASA to be unlikely to cause loss of the vehicle. Obviously, loss of the integrity of the orbiter Thermal Protection System occured in some manner. When Freepers posted the reports of these impacts on the site, I initially discounted the hypothesis. Orbiters had sustained multiple impacts in the past. However, the size of the plume in the last photo gives me pause.

I'd like to offer to FR a few observations on the photos.

1. In this image an object approximately 2-3 feet appears to be between the orbiter and the ET.

2. In this image the object appears to have rotated relative to both the camera and the orbiter. The change in image luminosity could also be due to a change in reflected light from the object. Nevertheless, it suggests that the object is tumbling and nearing the orbiter's leading edge.

It occurs to me that one may be able to estimate the size of the object and make an educated guess regarding the possible mass of the object. Using the data in the video, one can calculate the relative velocity of the object to the orbiter wing. Creating a test scenario is then possible. One can manufacture a test article and fire ET insulation at the right velocity to evaluate impact damage on the test article.

OV-101's port wing could be used as a test stand with RCC and tile attached to mimic the OV-102 design.

The color of the object seems inconsistent with ET insulation. One can judge the ET color by looking at the ET in the still frame. The color of the object seems more consistent with ice or ice covered ET insulation. Even when accounting for variant color hue/saturation in the video, the object clearly has a different color characteristic from ET insulation. If it is ice laden insulation, the mass of the object would be significantly different from ET insulation alone. Since the velocity of the object is constant in a comparison equation, estimating the mass of the object becomes paramount to understanding the kinetic energy involved in the impact with the TPS.

3. In this image the debris impact creates a plume. My observation is that if the plume was composed primarily of ET insulation, the plume should have the color characteristics of ET insulation. This plume has a white color.

Unfortunately, ET insulation is orange/brown in color.

In addition, if the relative density of the ET insulation is known, one can quantify the colorimetric properties of the plume to disintegrating ET insulation upon impact.

Using the test article experiment model, engineers should fire at the same velocity an estimated mass of ET insulation (similar to the object seen in the still frame) at the test article. The plume should be measured colorimetrically. By comparing this experimental plume to the photographic evidence from the launch, one may be able to quantify the amount of ET insulation in the photograph above.

4. In this photo, the plume spreads from the aft of the orbiter's port wing. This plume does not appear to be the color of ET insulation. It appears to be white.

This white color could be the color of ice particles at high altitude.

On the other hand, the composition of TPS tiles under the orbiter wings is primarily a low-density silica.

In the photo above, you can see a cross section of orbiter TPS tile. The black color of the tile is merely a coating. The interior of the tile is a white, low-density, silica ceramic.

[bonesmccoy]

sounds good... I don't know the differential equations for the calculations you are making.

Is it possible for you to teach us the differential equation?

I've been attempting to post my math in order to instruct others reading. Please teach us regarding your formulas, assumptions, and calculations.

[XBob]

1748 - "They are inflated in the "tire lab" and then baked and frozen in environmental chambers to make sure they don't leak at extreme temperatures. Once installed for flight, they are never touched again. "

---

good find.

Now, (I think I posted it on here, but am not sure) I found a commentary by NASA, somewhere along the line, that they modified the standard re-entry for this flight to 'warm' the tires, because the bird spent 16 days upside down, with the wheel wells facing 'cold' space.

In addition, the mission profile scheduled, indicated that there would be 2 re-entry turns, yet the published actual time lines keep talking about 4 turns.

[First_Salute]

Locally, for many years on up through 1998, the county's Board of Elections telephone numbers and address were not in the telephone book under "Voter Registration."

There was no cross-reference; "Voter Registration" was not in the book at all.

For the very reasons you cite, self-centricity.

Yesterday, our mayor gave his state of the city speech, talking about how it is prepared; about which, I did some recon and found that the local government has indeed taken steps to preserve itself and is quite happy with itself.

Never mind that, when a truck topples on the local interstate, it may take up to 6 hours to clear the road. Never mind that nobody is watching the airports' outside the terminals.

Instead, there is a smug determination by city hall, to control people; and mostly "do not cause a panic."

I am sure that a large proportion of city employees will survive and live well to retirement.

Never mind that nobody, and I mean nobody, is watching the store from the outside; there is absolutely no reconnaisance around the perimeter.

The main airport is a comical representation of the government's "preparation." Any attempt by terrorists to pass over or through the fence would be unopposed and unreported up until the control tower hears foreign accents from the departing flight(s).

The "experts" are all focused on the lineup of passengers; the Maginot Line-up. While Somalian taxi cab drivers' cabs are NEVER inspected and drive right up to the entrance doors to the terminal ... while you park 300 feet (at least) away.

[XBob]

1749 - "I have a question about eddy currents. "


If the wheel well door were 'missing', given the relative size of the well compared to the whole wing, the altitude, attitude, and speed, an 'eddy' would build up in the well. Would this 'eddy' perhaps form a 'natural' cover, causing new incoming 'air' to slip-stream over it?

Think about a water skier 'barefooting'.

[XBob]

1749 - "I have a question about eddy currents. "


If the wheel well door were 'missing', given the relative size of the well compared to the whole wing, the altitude, attitude, and speed, an 'eddy' would build up in the well. Would this 'eddy' perhaps form a 'natural' cover, causing new incoming 'air' to slip-stream over it?

Think about a water skier 'barefooting'.

[bonesmccoy]

wow that program is fun!

Is it possible to alter the 3-D rendering to include a peel back of the wing glove to the port wheel well and to include an extended LH MLG door?

[bonesmccoy]

an object is coming off the orbiter in this video taken by a California observer.

He reports the object appearing at 5:53:45 AM PST.

He was observing the object from Mt. Hamilton, CA

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/842330/posts?page=5#5
______________________________________________
Rick Baldridge Mount Hamilton, CA

"I have seen, photographed and video taped four Shuttle reentries over California, starting with STS-63. A photo of the reentry of STS-73 is posted at:

http://photos.yahoo.com/bc/rickbaldridge ...

(If you have trouble with this long link, go to

http://photos.yahoo.com/rickbaldridge

and click on "Astronomy Stuff" album, and then the second picture. The Yahoo page was down a few days ago but is working again.)

Believe me, NONE of them show even the slightest indication of brightenings in the trail or small pieces coming off.

Yesterday was a bad day for me (and all of us.) I video taped the reentry for Mt. Hamilton, CA and took two photos. Naked-eye, we didn't notice anything too unusual, but I was spending most of my time looking through the video camera viewfinder. We thought we had just seen another spectacular NORMAL reentry. Only an hour later when I got home did I learn of the tragedy that occurred minutes after we saw the Shuttle go by.

When I looked at my video, there were very faint but definite pieces coming off, with the first piece seen on the video at 5:53:45am PST +/- 1 second. A had made a time-hack as I always do to obtain timings, and this hack was synchronized to WWV. As far as I know at this time, I was the furthest west observer on the reentry track to get a video.

NASA has been given a copy of the tape. They may want the master of course to analyze further. I also took two still photos, one through a 16mm lens that shows the entire visible trace of the Shuttle and BOTH photos show definite brightenings in the trail that corresponde to brightenings the video shows. Again, I have NEVER seen this activity before STS-107. The photos will be scanned today and posted, after I get a copy to NASA."

"...It's been a very busy 36 hours trying to get data reduced and info to NASA on the video and pictures I took.

The two still photos I took from Mt. Hamilton (right next to the 40" dome at Lick Observatory -- coords N37° 20.498' W121° 38.579' Alt 4230 feet WGS84 datum) have been scanned (rather poorly by myself, I might add!) and annotated. I've posted them at:

http://photos.yahoo.com/rickbaldridge

Click on "Astronomy Stuff" album.

I won't speculate at this point -- we've had quite enough of that already. Let's just say the photos, videos and eyewitness accounts definitely show that something was amiss while COLUMBIA was over California. With this being my 4th observed reentry, I have a lot of experience looking over photos and videos that I've taken and nothing unusual showed on the previous three.

Funny thing was, several of us who saw STS-107 Saturday morning didn't see anything we would call really "unusual" using the naked-eye. The only comments were that the "color" seemed a bit off, perhaps more "orange", but that could be explained by a variety of causes. Only later when we looked at the video and developed the slides did we see something funny was going on. This leads me to believe that the average eyewitness in California may not have seen something going on when in fact it was. Hooray for video cameras..."

_________________________________________
Baldridge's observation is confirmed by an observer several hundred miles away in Huntington Beach, CA

Mark Bixby Huntington Beach, CA

"[Name}Mark Bixby

[Observing Location] Huntington Beach, CA

[Equipment Used] 7x35 binoculars

From about 5:53 a.m. until about 5:55 a.m. the Shuttle was easily visible from the Graham Street/Wintersburg Channel bridge. Using 7x35 binoculars, I observed quite close to the horizon an orange point of light with a faint, trailing orange contrail.

There were a few periodic "bursts" in the contrail where it got somewhat brighter and then dimmed back down to the average brightness. I have never witnessed a Shuttle reentry before, so I have no idea if those brightness bursts were normal. I could not perceive anything falling off of the Shuttle and forming a separate contrail.

According to the post-disaster news conference, the first sensor failures in the left wing of the Shuttle occurred at 5:53 a.m. Did this have anything to do with the bursts I saw? I have no idea...

[Still Images or Video] No."

[bonesmccoy]

Datapoint from NASA:
13:53:46 GMT (32.5)
38.61631, 121.9682
LMG Brake Line Temp A - on strut facing MLG door - start of off-nominal trend (temp rise rate change from 1.4 F/min to 5.5 F/min and increasing to LOS)
H=230203 ft.
V=22.86 Mach

[bonesmccoy]

[freepersup]

STS-107 Mishap Response Status Report #3
Thursday, February 13, 2003 – 2 p.m. CST

The Columbia Accident Investigation Board said today preliminary analysis by a NASA working group indicates the temperature indications seen in Columbia's left wheel well during entry would require the presence of plasma. Plasma is a super heated gas surrounding the orbiter during re-entry.

The CAIB said heat transfer through the structure, as from a missing tile, would not be sufficient to cause the temperature indications seen in the last minutes of flight. Additional analysis is under way, looking at various scenarios in which a breach of some type could occur, allowing plasma into the wheel well area or elsewhere in the wing.

Other flight data, including landing gear position indicators and drag information, indicate it is unlikely the left landing gear was deployed early, the CAIB said.

The search continues in the western United States for debris from Columbia. As of early Thursday, no debris found farther west than Granbury, Texas, about 40 miles southwest of Fort Worth, had been confirmed as Shuttle-related. The first two trucks containing debris from Columbia arrived at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Fla. Wednesday morning.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) reported today the Shuttle debris recovery operation is proceeding well. FEMA said 72 percent of sites in Texas and 84 percent of sites in Louisiana have been cleared.

The Environmental Protection Agency has 42 teams conducting operations in five Texas counties. Searches are focused on large structural items, and a plan is being developed to support expanded searches in areas where NASA-identified critical items have been found.

The Civil Air Patrol is expanding operations west of Fort Worth, and negotiations are under way to bring in a blimp to help search in the area from Fort Worth east to Palestine, Texas. The Navy is taking control of water operations, with dive teams and equipment arriving today. Searches will focus first on the Toledo Bend Reservoir and then turn to other lakes in the affected area.

The CAIB spent its second day visiting KSC. The trip's purpose is to familiarize members with operations at the center from which Columbia was launched Jan. 16.

On Friday the board is scheduled to visit the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in Huntsville, Ala. On Saturday members are scheduled to visit the Michoud, La., facility near New Orleans where Shuttle external tanks are fabricated, before returning to Houston Saturday night.

Leroy Cain, the Space Shuttle entry flight director on Feb. 1, will hold a press conference at 3:30 p.m. EST Friday. It will be carried live on NASA Television. Before that press conference, NASA-TV will carry a videotape of events inside the Shuttle Flight Control Room on Feb. 1. The video will be shown beginning at noon and 3 p.m. EST.


For more information about NASA on the Internet:: http://www.nasa.gov.


-end-

[freepersup]

I enlarged that image at his site and it looks like 2-3 significant events taking place. Shedding debris, flare ups, burns, etc. One has to put the perceived events in context with the size of the shuttle. Also the sensors and their respective readings (throughout the re-entry) do not, I repeat do not, convey the reality unfolding. Perhaps, it is because 'the happening' is to parts lacking sensors. More evidence -she's- coming apart.

[Budge]

You have two new e-mails.

[freepersup]

Budge,

I sent you a freepmail regarding the debris field.

[XBob]

1750 - Very good. Thanks much.

There seems to be a slight discrepancy in image size.

Now, could you use my diagram, with the horiontal support chunks out. Budge posted it for me on his site, image #50.

And attempted to size and align the chunks, with the wheel well.

If you wish the original jpg to fool with, I can e-mail it to you. It is a jpg of the underside tile layout, which I made from the pdf of the tile layout, trying to size it to the telescope image. I just did that by eye though, and don't remember what expansion I used. But I did attempt to make an acurate chunk design, based on thee longitudinal/horizontal spars, and the locations based on the tile layout. I think I also have the original horizontal chunk out jpg, before I rotated it.

See my post at 1491.

The only graphics tool I have is MS photo editor, so I can';t do much with it.

[bonesmccoy]

Interesting John.
Your estimate happened to be with the altitude and velocity of the object which probably separated from the vehicle over Sacramento and was observed by the astronomer.

If we believe that this is a piece of aluminum or steel, it is laying between 270 miles to 318 miles down range from the brightening observed by the astronomer.

If the event occured at NASA's 13:53:46 GMT (32.5) datapoint, the object is laying on the ground somewhere between 270 to 319 miles from that point in the trajectory.

I plotted the datapoint 32.5 and datapoint 33.
Datapoint 33 appears to be about 98.8 miles distant.
Datapoint 35.5 is approximately 158 miles from datapoint 32.5.
Datapoint 37.7 is approximately 279 miles from datapoint 32.5.

If the object separated at datapoint 32.5 and fell 270 miles down range, the object is likely laying somewhere near Tonopah, Nevada near 37.95657 deg North, 117.04854 West. This estimate is based upon drawing a straight line on a MapPoint map. However, the actual trajectory is not a straight line, but it is curved.

If the object was steel and fell 318 miles down range, the debris should be near 37.81907 North, 116.20568 West.

If your calculations are correct, the object is on the ground East of Nevada-95 and southeast of Tonopah.

[Budge]

Way back in 1494 - BraveMan, that picture of the wing you posted. That is the actual wing for Atlantis and not a mock-up?

[bonesmccoy]

yes, I noted the same.
The tiles have lower density and if any survived to the ground (which I doubt) they should be "earlier" in the ground track.

The tiles would be laying in California's forests of the Sierras or in the deserts of California-Nevada-Arizona. Finding a 2 inch tile remnant in that huge desert seems improbable.

Finding a crater from a aluminum or steel object going 200 mph seems far more likely.

I wonder if citizens could be used to scan the area east of Tonopah for the object seen by astronomers in California.

[bonesmccoy]

dittos. Was hoping some of us could go to the Sierras and have a Freeper posse on horseback scanning the mountains for shuttle debris. Only partly kidding...

Hey Pa... we're lookin' for parts from a spaceship..."

[halfbubbleofflevel]

>>Is it possible to alter the 3-D rendering to include a peel back of the wing glove to the port wheel well and to include an extended LH MLG door?

Yes. The basic problem here is the availability of proper 3D data. Heck, I could do the whole shuttle with all it's internals if I had proper data.

Currently I am thinking of ways to allow easy modification of the data. It would be nice to convert the data into some format that a proper 3D editing package could use.

My problem here is that I have a deadline for this. If I take too long to make changes then the program would be useless for your efforts as any enhancements would be needed before the conclusion of any investigation and not after!

[Thud]

A lot could have been going on at that point. One thing I learned about photo interpretation is that point source light reflections can make things look bigger or brighter than they are. There was also speculation earlier about a hydraulic leak whose fluid trailing from the wing could have looked spectacular.