11/3 Zogby Poll Final Numbers (Some Shockers)

Meet The Press | 11/03/02 | Zogby

[Ed_in_LA]

Minn: Mondale 50% Coleman 45%

TX: Kirk 48% Cornyn 49%

NJ: Lautenberg 54% Forrester 38%

Ark: Pryor 51% 40%

SD: Johnson 52% Thune 47%

GA: Cleland 49% Chambliss 49%

CO: Strickland 53% Allard 44%

NC: Bowles 46% Dole 52%

FL Gov: McBride 42% Bush 57%

[ForGod'sSake]

Every one of them should have a camcorder.

IIRC, one of the comments by Flyer on the thread I linked was he was not allowed any recording devices in the polling area. Interesting, no? You may not have noticed the effect he had as a poll watcher; it hardly slowed the Dims down. FWIW...

It's possible that the Pubbies are less than gung ho to pursue Dim shenanigans because of their own skeletons??? I can't imagine the Pubbies could hold a candle to Dim corruption in any case, but for some reason Pubbies seem reluctant to give voter fraud much more than lip service. Hard to figger???

FGS

[Dave S]

My bias with regard to Zogby is related to interviews I've seen him participate in since 09/11. Frankly I'll never see him in the same light again. I used to think he was a pretty good guy. His logic on the middle-east is quite twisted. I came away from my observations with a very negative impression of him.

Are you sure you are not thinking of his brother who heads an arab "anti-defamation" group. The only time I have seen the polster talk about the mideast was in reference to a poll he did on attitudes towards the US among middle class arabs in the mideast.

[deport]

I don't know how it's been around the state but I have gotten three calls, lots of literature and one personal visit from the Sanchez campaign, all within the last couple of weeks. They have been working hard but I've not gotten a single call or visit from any other campaign, Rep or Dem.

It's funny that with all that work the polls show Sanchez doing worse than Kirk. Strange things happening but I don't see either race being that close.

[anncoulteriscool]

******where is "portrait of america" when we need it.*****

Oh please!...POA...oh yeah...they're the people that told us bush would win popular vote in 2000 by 10 percent....I would not pay any attention to that guy.

[ForGod'sSake]

All the pundits on TV have this race close.

Zatso? Surprise! Last I heard, Fox was reporting Cornyn with a fairly comfortable lead. Who're you watching, ABCCBSNBCNN???

FGS

[buckalfa]

Gee--that is the offical West Virginia state motto!

[Dave S]

This is the guy who uses a "fair" category on a poll as a negative to make Bush look bad

And so do most reputable polsters. If you arent better than "fair" you are toast.

[ForGod'sSake]

POA...oh yeah...they're the people that told us bush would win popular vote in 2000 by 10 percent...

I don't suppose you'd like to back up that ridiculous statement with some facts would you? Nah, probably not.

FGS

[deport]

I think Zog goes with what his polls show after he factors in his adjustments.... Now what they are and how he determines them, I don't know. He missed some races badly in 2000 and got others fairly close.

The FL call was the result of some bad timing on the media's part and a mistake by VNS in precincts that were sampled/used for the projections. Also the media took some raw data from FL and went with it before VNS corrected it or so the story goes.

Novak said last night the thought Gov. Bush would win and maybe by double digits....

[Dave S]

I haven't seen numbers like these anywhere; he appears to be about five to seven percent too high or too low in each case compared to the other pollsters. I don't think Zogby cooks his polls; this is big business for him and his polling accuracy reputation is extremely important in getting new clients. Anyone have any ideas here?

I hope Im wrong but the DEms have had major GOTV campaigns in the last two off year elections which have left the GOP surprised, losing races they thought they had in the bag. The AFL-CIO is suppposely putting more resources behind candidates in this race than in the previous years. Perhaps Zogby is taking this high turnout for Dems into account in his poll numbers. His prediction in Texas fits with some of the Dems are saying about their GOTV program there.

[jonboy]

If it turns out that Zogby ends up being completely out of line with the other pollsters, YET, ends up being completely right about the outcomes and the margins, in favor of Democrats, I SERIOUSLY think he should be investigated for foreknowledge of Democratic voter fraud.

[Dog Gone]

Sanchez has never successfully articulated a reason why anyone should vote for him, other than he's not that evil Rick Perry guy. He started off with attack ads, and he's ended up trying to defend himself from attack ads. He's run a bad campaign.

Kirk has done better, but he's made some mistakes, too. It cost him the lead, right at the time Cornyn finally started buying TV ads. He's done better than I predicted, but he can't successfully run as Republican-Lite in this state. We'll vote for the real thing.

[BlackRazor]

Zogby's numbers are very laughably off when it comes to state polls.

Really? Zogby called 8 of 11 states within a one-tail margin of error in 2000.

This is the guy who uses a "fair" category on a poll as a negative to make Bush look bad

Was this a change from how he polled in the Clinton years?

Predicted Florida & Wisconsin wrong

Polls aren't predictions. Zogby called both of these races well within the margin of error.

[Dave S]

To me, the Ryan numbers are the biggest shock of all.

Last night on Capital Gang, Novak said Republican sources where telling him that the race had tightened and that there was chance that Ryan might pull an upset.

[deport]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Congressional/Senate_02_Polls.html

Texas (Open)                                                      Toss Up
Poll	Date	Cornyn (R)	Kirk (D)	Spread
Zogby	10/31-11/2	49%	48%	GOP +1
Dallas Morning News	10/29-11/1	50%	41%	GOP +9
SurveyUSA	10/29-11/1	53%	45%	GOP +8
Scripps-Howard	10/7-10/29	44%	35%	GOP +9
NBC 5	10/21-10/27	43%	40%	GOP +3
SurveyUSA	10/21-10/23	52%	45%	GOP +7
NBC 5	10/15-10/20	46%	36%	GOP +10
Blum & Weprin	10/13-10/17	47%	37%	GOP +10
SurveyUSA	10/14-10/16	54%	42%	GOP +12
NBC 5	10/8-10/13	46%	36%	GOP +10
Zogby	10/9-10/11	45%	37%	GOP +8
Last 3 Polls	Average	50.7%	44.7	GOP +6.0

Which poll is right? Zogby showing this race a dead heat or the Dallas Morning News with Cornyn comfortably ahead? We suspect Zogby's one point lead for Cornyn is closer to the truth. But we don't think Kirk will win on Tuesday. Cornyn 50% - Kirk 48%.

[dread78645]

I used to think he was a pretty good guy. His logic on the middle-east is quite twisted. I came away from my observations with a very negative impression of him.

Is this John Zogby, the pollster, or his brother James, the pro-Arab Clinton-Gore suckup ?

[laconic]

I fear you may be right; I remember Election Day 2000 when the folks at NewsMax.com reported in midafternoon that they were stunned by the far greater than anticipated turnout in the old folks' condo canyons in Fort Lauderdale and the historically huge turnout of blacks in Florida. Up to this year, the Dems have run (with the help of their friends in organized labuh) the far better ground campaign; supposedly the GOP has learned something from this but we'll see Tuesday nite.

[ambrose]

I don't know if Zogby's Texas numbers are really that different from the other pollsters if you think about it... he simply attributes the undecideds to Kirk, and the other pollsters leave them at undecided. I think he's also assuming a massive GOTV/fraud operation by the Rats.

[BlackRazor]

As I understand it, these are Zogby's "push poll" numbers where he forces undecideds to make a choice.

That is exactly how they described it on Meet the Press this morning, when discussing the results.

[ForGod'sSake]

SOP for Zogby. He calls it like it is until crunch time, then factors in what the Dim creative voting machine needs to do. If the Dims can't get away with their standard scam this year, Zogby will be shown to be the fool he is. IMO, of course.

FGS