Japan Is Target of North Korea Nuke and Missile Development *US Official Warns Tokyo*

This should make the case for the re-militarization of Japan.

Is this breaking news about a meeting today, or something that appeared in the morning paper?

Hawks in Japan are brewing action.

I can't imagine that the re-militarization of Japan would meet with any dissent (except of course from the usual UN noodnicks). It's not an issue on the radar screen here in the US, as far as I can tell. WW2 was a long time ago.

Well, the Koreans do have a bone to pick with the Japanese.

From time to time some South Korean acquaintances would start up with their anti-American ranting. I’d ask them what I had to do to get a break from them – show up in a Japanese uniform? Ha. That’d send them into orbit.

But really, there is a deep hatred of the Japanese in many Koreans… Chinese too...

It's kind of hard for me to take the threat of a nodong missile seriously. I mean, do they have any with dongs?

Anyone who thinks that Japan doesn't have nukes is deluding themselves. Technically, they may not exist -- but you can bet your last yen that all the components have been pre-fabricated and carefully hidden away.

There are military bases in Japan that the U.S. military has never found and the Japanese government has never revealed. There are a number of major bases that are known, but totally off-limits to foreigners. The Japanese are very good at keeping secrets.

Japan's Monju fast-breeder reactor was built completely with indigenous technology and remains one of the nations most secretive and inaccessible artifacts. It is not very reliable as such reactors go. It is old and creaky and not totally safe. I believe it was constructed for one reason only -- to ensure Japan had an independent source of plutonium should it be needed.

They also have an indigenous satellite launching capability that would not be that difficult to convert to ICBM construction. And don't think for a moment that plans of that nature have not been carefully made and tucked away from prying eyes. No doubt there are also a few prefabricated components and hidden launch sites around.

They even seem to be going into the overhead-imagery business with their own spy-sat.

No matter what the Japanese constitution says, the Japanese remain Japanese and are not likely to allow any nation to practice nuclear blackmail without repaying the favor.

I can't imagine that the re-militarization of Japan would meet with any dissent (except of course from the usual UN noodnicks).

A lot of the dissent will come from inside of Japan. Personally, I think they should have their own nukes. They'd be crazy to use them offensively (about 5 multi-megaton modern nukes could effectively wipe Japan out because the population is so concentrated) and it would be better for their own security. I don't think they should be their future on "Tokyo or Los Angeles" because I can imagine the US sacrificing Tokyo for LA.

It's not an issue on the radar screen here in the US, as far as I can tell. WW2 was a long time ago.

That depends on who you talk to. Every now and then, you'll find the "We'll just have to nuke 'em again if they get uppity" remarks here on Free Republic.

If Japan wants to re-militarize, then it is going to earn the ire of the Chinese and the EU.

Come to think of it, those are two more good reasons for the Japanese to not only re-arm, but to cut off all of their foreign aid to help pay for it, too.

Can they enrich enough U-235 to have weapons in the next 6 to 12 months? Surely Mitsubishi can build a decent jet fighter/bomber in the next 5 years, given enough money...

components -

You mean like all those large plutonium shipments it received?

Isn't Japan the owner of the largest stockpile of plutonium?

Now I understand why that transfer happened.

Just told my daughter she'd better start studying Korean . All the North Koreans have to do is wipe Tokyo and its immediate environs ( Kawasaki , Yokohama ...) tomorrow and the game is over .

I've been saying for a while that the Chicoms and Koreans (even the South Koreans who had the temerity to boo us during the World Cup)have been getting a bit uppity.

IMHO,it's time to reintroduce the predator into the environmemnt and cull the herd a bit. The Japanese should rearm themselves and fast. It might even save us some money if they put together a decent carrier group. I'm tired of seeing my tax dollar pay for their defense while they have a personal savings rate of 15-20%.

The "Japanese remain Japanese"... what is that supposed to mean?

Exactly how would Japan even fund this kind of development program, even if they did have the materials?

How much of the Japanese defense budget is transparent? Not very much from what I can see. A lot of the development can be disguised as other things. They have nuclear reactors, access to all the plutonium they need, their own satellite launchers and a tradition of military secrecy.

What I meant about "Japanese being Japanese" is that the Japanese tend to be very closed mouthed and nationalistic, even if they talk about it a lot less than other nations do. This is something that is easier to understand if you have lived in Japan for a while.

Here's some other reports:

From Yomiuri Shimbun

Another N. Korean headache

Yomiuri Shimbun

North Korea's breach of trust in developing an enriched-uranium nuclear weapons program has collapsed the foundation of the 1994 Agreed Framework between Washington and Pyongyang.

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly, who arrived Sunday in Tokyo, conveyed Washington's sense of crisis to the Japanese government.

North Korea must unconditionally and immediately halt its newly revealed nuclear weapons development program.

At the same time, the international community should stop Pyongyang from developing nuclear arms by applying as much pressure as possible by any necessary measures.

North Korea's last gambit

By VICTOR D. CHA
Special to The Japan Times

WASHINGTON -- North Korea's surprise announcement of a secret nuclear-weapons program has thrown cold water on a recent warming of relations with South Korea and Japan that included family reunions, rejuvenated economic cooperation and, in particular, a stunning admission of past misdeeds against Japanese citizens. In a similar vein, some have argued that this new nuclear revelation is North Korean leader Kim Jong Il's perverse but typical way of creating crisis to pull a reluctant Bush administration into serious dialogue.

Before the world accepts the North's confession as a perverse cry for help, we must see this for what it is -- a serious violation of a standing agreement that will in effect be North Korea's last gambit at peaceful engagement with the United States and its allies.

North Korea's actions constitute a blatant breakout from the 1994 U.S.-North Korean Agreed Framework designed to ensure denuclearization of the North. The implications of this act go beyond merely labeling it as a negotiating ploy. Arguably all of the improvements in North-South relations, including the June 2000 summit, breakthroughs in Japan-North Korea relations in 2001 and the wave of engagement with the reclusive regime that spread across Europe in 2000-2001, were made possible by what was perceived to be the North's good-faith intentions to comply with a major nonproliferation commitment with the U.S. in 1994. The diplomatic advances that came after 1994 would not have been possible without the Agreed Framework. And now the North has proved it all to be a lie. Though U.S. diplomats have been careful not to declare the framework dead, the likelihood that Congress would appropriate funds for its implementation are nil at this point. Suspension of the framework is the de facto result for now.

If Pyongyang seeks to turn lemons into lemonade by turning its violation into a bargaining chip, then it is sorely mistaken. There will be little support in the world community, let alone the U.S., to "pay" for an investigation and a rescinding of the activities in question. The U.S. did this once with regard to a suspected underground nuclear site in 1998-1999; Bush hawks, who are now only more skeptical of the North's intentions, will not engage in such attempted extortion again.

We are not, however, at crisis yet on the Korean Peninsula. Such an outcome awaits one more round of diplomacy in which the U.S. and its allies in Asia and Europe must impress upon Pyongyang in the strongest terms its need to address this violation. The most credible voices in this regard are Japan, as Koizumi must communicate to his recent host in Pyongyang that any hope of normalization and a large Japanese aid package remains otherwise distant; and China, whose interests in a nonnuclear Korean Peninsula are arguably more intense than those of Washington. A nuclear North Korea could potentially mean a nuclear Japan, which is Beijing's worst nightmare.

Despite Kim's genuine desire for economic reform and peaceful integration into the world community, apologists argue, the isolated and decrepit state of his country forces him to leverage security threats in case the intentions of those engaging North Korea are not benign. Since the Agreed Framework, however, we have been witness to eight years of engagement by South Korea, Japan, the European Union and the U.S. The message from these suitors has been clear: trade the WMD threat for economic reform and peaceful integration.

Up until now, the burden of proof was on the U.S. and its allies vis a vis this small and paranoid regime. Now the cooperation ball is in Kim's court. He had better pick it up promptly and without ambiguity, or face complete isolation and neglect from the rest of the world.

Professor Victor D. Cha is director of the American Alliances in Asia Project at Georgetown University.

The Japan Times: Oct. 22, 2002

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EDITORIAL

Stunning news from North Korea

The world has puzzled over the significance of the almost complete news blackout that followed the visit of U.S. Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly to North Korea earlier this month. Now we know the reason: North Korea admitted that it had a nuclear weapons development program, a violation of the agreement that the two countries reached in 1994. The troubling development casts new light on North Korea's behavior and calls into question the steps toward "normalcy" that Pyongyang has made in recent weeks.

Now, Japan, the United States and South Korea, along with other nations, must coordinate efforts to convince the North to abandon its nuclear weapons program -- and any other programs committed to the development of weapons of mass destruction -- and honor its international agreements. There can be no normalization of relations with a country that fails to honor its international commitments.

Mr. Kelly's visit to Pyongyang was the first high-level outreach by a U.S. official to the North since President George W. Bush took office. The U.S. administration has made no secret of its feelings about the North Korean government (Mr. Bush included it in his "axis of evil"), its suspicions of Pyongyang's intentions and its contempt for the Agreed Framework, the 1994 agreement between Washington and Pyongyang that was designed to cap the North's nuclear weapons program in exchange for fuel oil and two light-water nuclear reactors. This week's developments suggest U.S. skepticism was justified.

At the meeting in Pyongyang, Mr. Kelly reportedly laid out a list of U.S. concerns and said North Korean efforts to address those issues could lead to an improvement in U.S.-North Korean relations. Among those concerns was evidence that the North was cheating on the Agreed Framework. Evidently, to Mr. Kelly's surprise, North Korea admitted it had a nuclear weapons development program. Mr. Kelly briefed Seoul and Tokyo on the news and then hurried home as the U.S. planned its response.

The North Korean announcement has been rightfully denounced. A spokesman said Mr. Bush called it "troubling, sobering news," but the president did not make a statement himself. That is part of a decision not to increase tensions and to work through diplomatic channels to address the issue. The U.S. is seeking a "peaceful solution," explained the spokesman. Both the U.S. and South Korea have called on Pyongyang to honor its promises to renounce the development of nuclear arms.

Japan's reaction has been similar. Government officials warned that the nuclear weapons program could hinder efforts to normalize bilateral ties. Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi said that, because he had been briefed on U.S. concerns before his trip to Pyongyang last month, he raised the nuclear weapons issue. Speaking to reporters, Mr. Koizumi said, "We want (North Korea) to take measures in a sincere manner to get rid of suspicions about a nuclear (weapons program) in the future." Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda warned that normalization will not go forward if North Korea is breaking its promise and said the news could prompt reconsideration of Japan's role in the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization, which is building the reactors as part of the Agreed Framework.

Three big questions remain unanswered. The first is whether North Korea has nuclear weapons. Pyongyang admitted to having a development program; that does not mean it has weapons. Even U.S. intelligence experts are unclear whether the North has a nuclear bomb.

The second question is why North Korea admitted it had been cheating. There are several theories: The first is that the North wanted to focus U.S. attention and get Washington to make a deal that would exchange economic aid and security guarantees for the nuclear program. Another theory posits that the North wanted to come clean, as it did when it admitted to having abducted Japanese citizens. In so doing, it was attempting to clean the slate and get relations with the U.S. off to a fresh start. The third explanation is that Pyongyang was angry following accusations at the meeting with Mr. Kelly and admitted the program to force the U.S. to take North Korea seriously.

The third and most important question is what will happen next. The emphasis on a diplomatic solution is correct. War is not an option. Mr. Kelly is now traveling to Tokyo and Seoul to consult with allies on a response. These governments must stress the need for Pyongyang to honor its commitments and to abandon its attempts to build weapons of mass destruction. The North's admission that it cheated on the Agreed Framework makes diplomacy tougher, since it will be harder to believe any pledge that Pyongyang makes. But that does not make the pursuit of a diplomatic solution any less urgent.

The Japan Times: Oct. 19, 2002

Kelly, Fukuda discuss N. Korea

The Asahi Shimbun

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda and U.S. Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly agreed Sunday that Tokyo and Washington would lead calls for Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear weapons development program.

Kelly, who arrived Sunday, is to meet Foreign Minister Yoriko Kawaguchi today.

Kelly was quoted as telling Fukuda and other senior officials that Washington is in talks with Russia, China, the Republic of Korea (South Korea) and Europe to force Pyongyang to ``immediately and visibly'' abandon its secret nuclear weapons development program.

The Japanese side reportedly told Kelly that during normalization negotiations Tokyo will urge North Korea to take responsible action along the lines of the Sept. 17 joint declaration between the two countries.

Before touching down in Japan, Kelly talked with officials in Beijing and Seoul to seek a solution to the North Korean problem.

In Seoul, Kelly said that if the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea) refuses to abandon its nuclear program, Pyongyang would face ``maximum international pressure.''

Pyongyang's admission also puts Japan in a tougher situation for normalization talks set to resume Sept. 29-30 in Kuala Lumpur.

North Korea's continued nuclear program violates its 1994 Agreed Framework with Washington. As part of the Agreed Framework, Washington, Tokyo and Seoul established the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO) to build light-water reactors in North Korea for power generation in exchange for a freeze on Pyongyang's nuclear development program.

``I would like to discuss joint efforts in dealing with nuclear and security issues with U.S. President George W. Bush and South Korean President Kim Dae Jung when we meet at the APEC meeting,'' Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi said Saturday. A meeting of the three leaders is scheduled for Saturday on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Mexico.(IHT/Asahi: October 21,2002)

Kelly: Nuclear accord with North still alive

The Asahi Shimbun

Washington is weighing how to respond, top official says.

Contrary to news reports, Washington has not decided whether to scrap the 1994 deal with North Korea designed to freeze Pyongyang's nuclear weapons program, says a senior U.S. diplomat.

Foreign Ministry officials Monday quoted James Kelly, assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, as saying the United States must still carefully consider the 1994 Agreed Framework in light of revelations Pyongyang violated the agreement.

He said the Bush administration is still debating whether to jettison the arms-control accord with the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea), according to the officials.

Kelly made the remarks in a Monday meeting with Foreign Minister Yoriko Kawaguchi in Tokyo.

According to the officials, Kelly agreed with Kawaguchi that the United States, Japan and the Republic of Korea (South Korea) will closely cooperate to press for a peaceful solution to the North Korean nuclear armament issue.

Supported by Washington, they also agreed that Japan will raise the issue during normalization talks with Pyongyang.

Officials said Kawaguchi told Kelly the 1994 accord plays a key role in containing Pyongyang's nuclear weapons program. She added that Tokyo will consult Washington and Seoul on any future moves.

As for the restart of normalization talks, slated for Oct. 29 in Kuala Lumpur, Kawaguchi informed Kelly that Japan will place priority on security, including the North's nuclear aspirations, as well as the abduction issue.

``Japan will not move forward with the normalization process without progress in negotiations on the nuclear issue,'' Kawaguchi was quoted as telling Kelly.

North: Uranium device not used

The Asahi Shimbun

WASHINGTON-A North Korean delegate to the United Nations confirmed Thursday his country is trying to develop nuclear weapons, but Pyongyang insists its uranium-enrichment devices are not yet in operation, sources said.

The delegate, who belongs to North Korea's mission to the United Nations, said the U.S. State Department's announcement Wednesday revealing Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions was ``mostly true.''

He acknowledged that North Korea's purchase of uranium-enrichment devices-key components in producing weapons-grade material-has led Washington to believe that North Korea has not frozen its nuclear weapons program.

But U.S. government sources Thursday told The Asahi Shimbun that North Korean officials said they have yet to use the enrichment devices.

At high-level talks in Pyongyang earlier this month, Kang Sok Ju, North Korea's first vice minister of foreign affairs, admitted to U.S. Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly that the North had bought uranium-enrichment devices, but emphasized the devices are not in operation, the sources said.

When Kelly presented customs clearance documents of the devices and other evidence obtained by the CIA, Kang said the enrichment devices came from ``a third nation,'' the sources said.

In Wednesday's statement, the U.S. government did not mention whether the devices were in operation, but Washington argues that simple possession of the equipment violates the 1994 U.S.-North Korea Agreed Framework, intended to stop Pyongyang's nuclear program.

The North Korean delegate, however, accuses Washington of breaking the agreement first.

He said the Bush administration in June last year revised its policies against Pyongyang, and pressed North Korea to immediately accept inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency. The delegate said North Korea has no obligation to do so under the 1994 Agreed Framework.

Despite Pyongyang's assertion, U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld on Thursday repeated his suspicion to reporters that North Korea already possesses a couple of nuclear bombs.

The CIA in its latest report said Pyongyang has successfully extracted enough plutonium to manufacture one or two nuclear weapons.(IHT/Asahi: October 19,2002)

Japan to raise nukes at talks with N. Korea
WASHINGTON, Oct. 22, Kyodo - Japan told the United States on Monday that Tokyo will hold off normalization talks with North Korea until there is progress on security issues, including Pyongyang's nuclear development program.
Japan's Senior Vice Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi told reporters in Washington he conveyed the Japanese policy to the U.S. at separate talks with senior U.S. officials earlier in the day.

The U.S. officials Motegi met were Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage, James Moriarty, senior director for Asian affairs of the White House's National Security Council, and Douglas Feith, undersecretary of defense for policy.

Motegi said he told the U.S. officials Japan will deal with the security issues, together with North Korea's abduction of Japanese nationals, as a topic of the highest priority at Japan-North Korea talks to be held Oct. 29-30 in Kuala Lumpur to normalize bilateral ties.

The U.S. officials welcomed Japan's position, he said.

According to Motegi, Armitage said the U.S. hopes it will send a clear message to North Korea on its close policy coordination with Japan and South Korea when their leaders hold a trilateral summit Saturday in Mexico on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum.

The U.S. will also work with China and Russia to seek the abandonment of the North Korean nuclear weapons program with the international community as a whole, Armitage was also quoted as saying.

The U.S. government revealed last week that North Korea told the U.S. earlier this month that it has a secret program to enrich uranium for nuclear weapons and is no longer bound by a 1994 bilateral nuclear accord.

The accord requires North Korea to freeze and dismantle its graphite-moderated nuclear reactors in exchange for two light-water nuclear reactors and the supply of heavy oil for heating and electricity production.

Light-water reactors are said to be more difficult to use for the development of nuclear weapons.

The U.S. officials said the U.S. has yet to reach a conclusion on the 1994 accord issue.

You could make the same arguments about our nation and loyal patriotic Americans (about being closed mouthed and nationalistic).

Isn't the real issue centered upon which nations the United States can rely on to take mutually advantageous positions to ours?

Clearly, in this respect, the Japanese are allies in containing nuclear technology in Asian communist nations.

Domo Arigato, AmericanInTokyo-san.

How do you think this will play in Japan? Japanese antipathy to nuclear weapons is legendary (and understandable). To be told that they are potential targets of the Kim Jong-Il regime (not exactly a stable government) has to be chilling. But... will the public think that the US is trying to play off that well-known Japanese nuclear policy?

You could certainly make a case that the NKs don't really want their nukes to blast Japan. I believe they want to prevent another Inchon when the Dear Leader decides to unify the nation under tank-treads. A sensible military strategist might do that by attacking Japan, but as I have indicated I don't think the NKs are sensible. The North Koreans are very ethnocentric, and I don't know if they worry too much about anything but Korea.

d.o.l.

Criminal Number 18F

The No Dong (sometimes one word) missile is named after the research establishment where it was test-launched.

Some squeamish services (Voice of America, I believe, has been one) transliterate the hangul as "Rodong," which as I understand it isn't "correct" but is "politically correct."

The North Koreans, not being big consumers of world news, or much aware of foreign languages or countries, never gave a moment's thought to how we would react to being menaced with No Dong... (we could have fun with this all day).

d.o.l.

Criminal Number 18F

It may well create the rise of a strong, nationalistic, "Japan First" ("Nippon Dai Ichi") Prime Minister, such as a renegade like Ishihara "Just Say No" Shintaro, current governor of Tokyo. With the mood of the voters to not be shy about sticking it to the LDP and even other parties at the polls and go independent, Ishihara could well start an independent party (Perhaps name it the Japan Patriotric Party: (Nippon Aikokuto) and then win strong at the polls on an anti-North Korea, rearm-Japan platform. Unemployment, lack of direction, shattered hopes in the youth, sexual impotence of Japanese men (a deeper psycho-sociological theory on my part), increasing crime in Japan by foreigners and low-class Japanese, and other disturbing social phenomenon in Japan that are prevalent, could contribute to it, and a circling of the rickshaws.

Japan can and will swing from one extremity of the pendulum of rampant pacifism, to one of belligerent pro-Japan anti-North Korea vigilence. Often, there is little ground in between two polar extremes in Japan in public policy.

The nation could well forget their recent history, particularly on the part of younger voters who know nothing of what led to the Great East Asian Co-prosperity Sphere, and rearm and renationalize all in favor of keeping a wall of protection between themselves and a new, violent and uncontrollable neighbor on the Asian peninsula just a sea away to the west.