Hurricane Lili Now A Category 4

TWC | 10-02-02 | my favorite headache

[My Favorite Headache]

Category 4 storm now....we are talking Andrew style now.

[Chairman_December_19th_Society]

I looked up New Iberia on the Terraserver's topo maps, most of it looks to be 15-20 feet elevation, so from what I read it sounds like the storm surge wouldn't get that high(plus its about 15 miles inland from the bay, kinda sorta).

There are three factors that affect storm surge:

1. Altitude above MSL - obviously.

2. Distance from the sea. Water is viscous, meaning it flows but it does "grab on to things" if you will as it flows, so the further inland you are, even at a given altitude, the better you are.

3. What is between the point and the sea. If it is in a valley that is otherwise surrounded by high ground, cool. If it is in a valley that winds its way around to a bayou - not so cool, but not necessarily the end of the world either. If it a straight shot for the water to intrude - oops.

[DBtoo]

My brother lives in Zachary, LA. I just got off the phone with him. He is really freaked. Keeps jumping from the TV to the internet! I'm really worried for the people in the New Orleans area. I hope a lot of them have left.

[KC Burke]

If the landfall is now east of Marsh Island, you are going to have a very serious 24 hours ahead....are you sure you need to stick it out?

[southernnorthcarolina]

"Wind pressure on a surface varies as the square of the increase in wind velocity..."

That is correct. To put this into perspective, the force exerted by a 125 mph wind on a window pane, for example, is equivalent to 1250 lbs. of dead load. Add to this the sustained, pulsing nature of wind loads and you have a very destructive situation.

Not only the pulsing nature of the wind, but the destuctive nature if airborne debris. A lot of windows can withstand a wind gust of 100 mph -- but not a shingle from the neighbors' roof propelled at 100 mph. So as structural components and trees begin to fail, the destructive process feeds itself. Which is one reason why damage (and odds of death) increase by much more than the square of the increase in wind speed.

[dennis1x]

Yep....Baton Rouge definitely will be closer to the eastern core of the system than previously thought. Official track takes the center about 30-40 miles west of Baton Rouge and the same east of Lafayette.

[Chairman_December_19th_Society]

If the thing goes in at Blanche Bay, then, based on available data, the triangle of destruction would extend east to about 10 miles east of Houma, west to Vermillion Bay, and north to a point about 15 miles SE of Natchez, MS.

[ladyinred]

I have lots of relatives in the Baton Rouge area. I hope they are alright, as are the rest of my fellow freepers in the path of this storm. Stay safe!

[My Favorite Headache]

Oh I am familiar with what Andrew had to offer. He re-arranged my neighborhood,house,yard,city etc...remember he hit Florida at this strength first! I really think tornadoes are going to be the big issue with this storm as well. Lili reminds me so much of Andrew. Kinda like his long lost sister coming back for a re-visit 10 yrs later.

[TruBluKentuckian]

Actually, it's a common global phenomenon.... and as of yet unexplained. I don't remember the exact times, but there times of the day where air pressure goes up, and corresponding times where it goes down. It's called diurnal. 10:00 (the time of the latest update) just happens to be one of the times it goes up.

[My Favorite Headache]

So basically this storm peaked 9-10 hrs before landfall. I guess I will stick with that cat 3 landfall afterall. I expect a 135 speed by 2 am.

[dennis1x]

New Orleans area should be fine, breezy and rainy no doubt.
Baton Rouge will experience very heavy weather, probably 80-100 mph winds assuming rapid weakening doesnt occur in the next 12 hours
Worst appears to be on a path down the middle between Houma and New Iberia to the south and Lafayette and Baton Rouge to the north.

[newsperson999]

Houma pop 31000 looks like its in trouble...and its not really inland since everything between it and the ocean is swamps and lakes

[cajungirl]

Oh Lord, those poor people. I really appreciate all the info all of you give out. There is no better place to be during anything like this. Thanks to all you out there in the net.

[dirtboy]

I signed up on FreeRup today to comment on the storm. Was lurking the last couple of weeks. Took me awhile to figure out the shower and series thing.

Well, welcome aboard, have some cheese and watch out for the mooses...

[DBtoo]

I'm a weather nut, and even though I don't live in the Gulf Coast area anymore I still keep an eye on hurricanes, especially this one because of my brother in LA. He plans on staying up all night, and I'll probably be up late myself! I'm 3 hours behind LA as it is.

[cmsgop]

Great Rush Photo's Dude!!!!!!!

[Chairman_December_19th_Society]

and its not really inland since everything between it and the ocean is swamps and lakes

That part of LA is so swampy and full of water, it doesn't really count as land as far as hurricane decay patterns go. It doesn't slow them down a wit.

[Travis McGee]

I've had big boats to look after in FL and SC when hurricanes were bearing down, it's a royal pain, a week out of your life for a near miss requiring the full works (up rivers, multiple storm anchors, all sails off etc).

But at least the Atlantic canes go in more or less predictable lines. I don't know how they stand it in the Gulf, where they wobble, stall, loop, and back track.