Prediction-Saddam to announce to world that sleeper cells will release WMD upon his arrest or death!

9/28/2002 | M. Peach

[M. Peach]

I am making a prediction here that Saddam will shortly announce to the world that his sleeper cells have been instructed to release their WMD in strategic locations throughout the world if he is harmed or arrested.

This line of thinking fits in perfectly with the divide and conquer theory. He knows that this will give the Democrats the perfect excuse not to go after him, and we'll have another divided country just like in the Viet Nam War.

I can't tell you what's going to happen after that. I just know that there will be some serious ass-kicking.

[M. Peach]

Anyone else have any predictions on how our war against Iraq will play out?

[sinkspur]

If Hussein is stupid enough to do as you suggest, the entire world will unite against him.

That's blackmail, and even the Democrats will stampede to support regime change.

[ComputationalComplexity]

Ok, we go and take out Saddam, you think his cronies here will be disciplined enough to take out a city? Or will they just choose to live out their lives here and maybe even get the chance to bone some liberal American women?

[M. Peach]

What other choice does he have at this point? Death or what else?

[M. Peach]

Don't kid yourself. We already know to what length some of these radical muslims will go to....

[M. Peach]

I think you need to put yourself in his place (as difficult as that may be). He knows his days are numbered, so he's going to use every tool in his arsenal - what does he have to lose?

I think he knows America's resolve, and he's run out of ideas. What would you do if you were in his shoes? Don't say "shine them."

[Arkinsaw]

His goal is to unite the Arab world under his leadership and always has been. I think he will focus his reaction against the US and Israel only. He probably has it in his head that he can hold out long enough for that uniting to occur and I seriously doubt any of his generals are going to tell him anything he does not want to hear. He probably doesn't have a realistic picture of his own capabilities.

I think he is likely to do everything possible to drag Israel into the fight including missiles, WMD attacks, terrorists, trying to move towards the Jordanian border. Once Israel is into the mix he probably thinks he can drag in the whole Arab world.

[M. Peach]

Let's say he threatens to release his weapons in only those countries that oppose him.

[sinkspur]

What would you do if you were in his shoes?

It's hard to get into the mind of a megalomaniac. Let's hope one of his generals takes him out.

[M. Peach]

I believe that he has already been warned that he will be nuked if he releases WMD first. I would think that he's on defense right now, and in survival mode. What better way to do that then make this announcement?

Of course, only he knows what they are capable of releasing at this point. This is high-stakes poker.

[jlogajan]

Ever see the movie Dr. Strangelove? The Ruskies had the Doomsday weapon -- but hadn't got around to telling the world about it yet -- and therefore it didn't have the deterrent effect it was designed for.

If Saddam has sleeper cells with WMD distributed around the world, then he'd want to use this "doomsday" threat before hostilities are launched.

Plus it has to be a credible threat or it won't serve the purpose either.

I don't see how he could pull that off -- he'd practically have to demonstrate an actual use of WMD somewhere to prove credibility -- which would at the same time seal his fate in world opinion.

Saddam doesn't have that many deterrent options. At best he can order a post-assault revenge attack -- but that doesn't have to be publicly announced, since deterrent isn't its goal.

[Illbay]

Saddam Hussein is not a 'radical Muslim.'

[Oldeconomybuyer]

My opinion is that Saddam will prefer exile over death.

[Tacis]

Neither Saddam nor any other bad guy will do anything 'til after the election. The dems are their buddies and they know they will get Clintonian treatment if the dems hold the senate where Biden, Kennedy and Dashole are their representatives and spokesmen. Action before the election would guarantee the election of Republican majorities in both houses. The Republicans are the enemies of the bad guys and the bad guys are reasonably sure that Bush intends to hunt them down.

After the election, Saddam might make such an anouncement but I don't think so. He has large numbers of Muslims around the world who may not be trusted any more, but they are not persecuted. Such a threat would put most of them under the gun.

No, Saddam's best tactic would be to attack after the election but not take credit. Direct credit permits retaliation ("Go ahead, make my day!") and I don't think he'd do that. The attack has to come from sources that will allow Dashole, Kennedy, Biden and the French to say, "We don't have sufficient proof." and urge that we continue to do nothing and take hits. I'm reasonably sure that if we were to see Dashole income tax returns, we'd find that his bag lady wife's consulting firm has several Saddam fronts as major clients.

[Joe 6-pack]

Based on his performance in the Iran-Iraq war, hussein was viewed as a somewhat competent strategist...a view which was significantly altered following Desert Shield/Storm.

If not an effective leader of conventional forces, hussein is smart enough not to telegraph such a move if he actually meant to have it carried out. If indeed, he has the capacity and apparatus in place to carry out such an atrocity, he will keep that card close to his vest...

[Arkinsaw]

I believe that he has already been warned that he will be nuked if he releases WMD first.

First, he has to believe it which I doubt he does. Not even sure I believe it. (can you hear the Democrats then?)

Second, we have to consider whether he loves Bagdhad more than the idea of uniting Arabs in outrage over the nuking of Bagdhad. My idea is that he would burn down Bagdhad in a moment if the result was that it would unite the Arab world and gain leadership. I have no doubt that he is capable of that flight of fancy.

Non-Mutual Assured Destruction is not going to be a deterrent in this case I don't believe.

[AngrySpud]

My prediction is that if your prediction comes true, an Iraqi insider will take out all three Sadaams.

[ZeitgeistSurfer]

Saddam is a trapped rat, but may not yet realize it fully because he still thinks the RATs in this country will forstall an attack. Once he does realize that there is no escape, I think he will use apocalyptic language that essentially says "attack me and I will use my WMDs". Since he doesn't seem to really understand the psychology of the American people, he will assume that we will all panic and that's that. We will attack and he will be destroyed. My guess is that we have been very effective at letting his forces know what will happen to them if they release their WMDs. That doesn't mean it won't happen, but I think there is a very good chance we can stop or minimize the possibilities.

[M. Peach]

I would think that he wants to buy time right now (not to mention stay alive - "stayin' alive" now there's a new song for DFU), and what better way to do that then divide the enemy - or at least cause them to hesitate -

I really don't believe he will use these WMD first - unless it's through a surrogate like Al-Qaeda. He know's he's toast if he does.

But I also feel his arsenal will also serve as a deterrant to an offense against him. To borrow a line from Reagan, "Peace through strength."

[M. Peach]

No - but his surrogates are. Do you believe for a moment he hasn't financed Al Qaeda?