Posted on 09/23/2002 9:56:31 AM PDT by StopDemocratsDotCom
These polls came out yesterday:
-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows Lamar Alexander (R) leading Bob Clement (D 45 to 37 percent in the Tennessee race for Senate.
-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows John Cornyn (R) leading Ron Kirk (D), 42 to 30 percent in the Texas race for Senate.
-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows Gov. Rick Perry (R) leading Tony Sanchez (D), 44 to 32 percent.
-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows Gov. Rick Perry (R) leading Tony Sanchez (D), 44 to 32 percent.
-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows Elizabeth Dole (R) leading Erskine Bowles (D) 55 to 32 percent in the North Carolina Senate race.
-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows Sen. Robert Torricelli (D-NJ) leading Douglas Forrester (R) 39 to 34 percent. For more analysis of this race and early access to future tracking polls.
-The latest MSNBC/St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Zogby poll shows Sen. Jean Carnahan (D-MO) leading Jim Talent (R) 48 to 40 percent.
-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows Norm Coleman (R) leading Sen. Paul Wellstone (D-MN) 47 to 41 percent.
-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows Tim Penny (I) and Tim Pawlenty (R) each with 28 percent of the vote to Roger Moe's (D) 23 percent.
-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) besting Bill McBride (D), 49 to 39 percent.
-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows Sen. Wayne Allard (R-CO) tied with Tom Stickland (D) 42 to 42 percent.
-The latest MSNBC/Arkansas Gazette/Zogby poll shows Mark Pryor (D) leading Sen. Tim Hutchinson (R-AR) 45 to 43 percent, within the margin of error.
That's the generic historical pattern.
I can't comment on previous election cycles, but I think the exact opposite took place in 2000. The most startling example was in Michigan, where Spence Abraham had a 17-point lead with about six weeks to go, and lost.
Sounds like a guy with some connections.
January 3, 2001
PRESIDENTIAL POLL PERFORMANCE 2000
The accuracy of the election projections based on the pre-election polls of 2000 was surpassed only by the polls of 1976 and 1960, according to a study release today by the National Council on Public Polls. This year's final polls had an average error of 1.1 percentage points on the estimates for George W. Bush and Al Gore. The error on the third place finisher, Ralph Nader, was 1.3 percentage points.
These results were based on the work of 10 polling organizations that used traditional methods for conducting their polls.
| Poll | Bush/Gore Error |
Nader Error |
| Harris Poll | 0.0% | 2.0% |
| CBS News | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| IBD/CSM/Tipp | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| ICR/Politics Now | 1.0 | 4.0 |
| Gallup/CNN/USA Today | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Pew Research | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Zogby/Reuters | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| ABC News/Wash Post | 1.5 | 0.0 |
| NBC News/WSJ | 1.5 | 0.0 |
| Battleground | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| Average | 1.1 | 1.3 |
The 2000 election was a tie between Bush and Gore and was the closest election since the Kennedy-Nixon election in 1960. Democrat Gore had a slight edge in the CBS and Zogby polls, while seven of the other polls leaned to Republican Bush. The Harris poll had it tied. Four years ago, all 9 polls erred in favor of overstating Democratic Clinton. Challenger Nader was overstated by 7 of the 10 polls this year. Two got the Nader vote correct. All other polls overstated Nader's vote. Third party candidates typically get less support in the election than they do in the final pre-election polls.
Two other organizations used methods that previously had not been used. Harris Interactive conducted its polls on the Internet among a panel of e-mail users and forecast a tie. Rasmussen's Portrait of America poll was off by 4.5 percentage points on each of the top two candidates. Rasmussen had its interviews conducted by a computer playing a recorded voice with no live interviewer intervening.
| Alternative Method Polls |
Bush/Gore Error |
Nader Error |
| Harris Interactive | 0.0% | 1.0% |
| Rasmussen | 4.5 |
The ten traditional polls used random samples of telephone households and live interviewers to obtain vote intentions from likely voters. Screening questions that were unique to each poll identified likely voters. More detailed methods statements are available from the individual polling organization.
| 2000-Preliminary | Gore | Bush | Nader | Undecided | Other |
| Election Results | 48% | 48% | 3% | 1% | |
| Zogby | 48% | 46% | 5% | 0% | 1% |
| CBS | 45% | 44% | 4% | 5% | 2% |
| Harris (Phone) | 47% | 47% | 5% | 0% | 1% |
| Gallup/CNN/USA Today | 46% | 48% | 4% | 0% | 2% |
| Pew Research | 47% | 49% | 4% | 0% | 0% |
| IBD/CSM/TIPP | 46% | 48% | 4% | 0% | 2% |
| ICR/Politics Now | 44% | 46% | 7% | 1% | 2% |
| NBC/WSJ | 44% | 47% | 3% | 4% | 2% |
| ABC/WashPost | 45% | 48% | 3% | 3% | 1% |
| Battleground | 45% | 50% | 4% | 0% | 1% |
Scott Rasmussen shut down POA earlier this year. You can now find him at ScottPolls.com.
More importantly is the fact that many of these tight races are taking place in states where democrats control the local polling places. The propensity for vote theft has always been there, but iwth the rise of the Clintonistas you can expect most races to be "stolen". Like true Stalinists they are interested in power at any cost. They take to heart Stalin's now famous comment that:
"Those who cast the votes, decide nothing. Those who count the votes, decide everything.".
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