Posted on 09/23/2002 9:56:31 AM PDT by StopDemocratsDotCom
These polls came out yesterday:
-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows Lamar Alexander (R) leading Bob Clement (D 45 to 37 percent in the Tennessee race for Senate.
-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows John Cornyn (R) leading Ron Kirk (D), 42 to 30 percent in the Texas race for Senate.
-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows Gov. Rick Perry (R) leading Tony Sanchez (D), 44 to 32 percent.
-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows Gov. Rick Perry (R) leading Tony Sanchez (D), 44 to 32 percent.
-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows Elizabeth Dole (R) leading Erskine Bowles (D) 55 to 32 percent in the North Carolina Senate race.
-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows Sen. Robert Torricelli (D-NJ) leading Douglas Forrester (R) 39 to 34 percent. For more analysis of this race and early access to future tracking polls.
-The latest MSNBC/St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Zogby poll shows Sen. Jean Carnahan (D-MO) leading Jim Talent (R) 48 to 40 percent.
-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows Norm Coleman (R) leading Sen. Paul Wellstone (D-MN) 47 to 41 percent.
-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows Tim Penny (I) and Tim Pawlenty (R) each with 28 percent of the vote to Roger Moe's (D) 23 percent.
-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) besting Bill McBride (D), 49 to 39 percent.
-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows Sen. Wayne Allard (R-CO) tied with Tom Stickland (D) 42 to 42 percent.
-The latest MSNBC/Arkansas Gazette/Zogby poll shows Mark Pryor (D) leading Sen. Tim Hutchinson (R-AR) 45 to 43 percent, within the margin of error.
I particularly like this part:
"The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) besting Bill McBride (D), 49 to 39 percent."
GO JEB!
Until then, the one you heard quoted constantly here on FR was Rasmussen's "Portrait of America," which was totally off.
Funny: I don't see "Portrait of America" cited any more. Is it possible they went out of business?
Oh, please. How many times are people going to keep saying this? Nearly all the polls showed a close national race in 2000, including his. We got a close national race. Most were three-day tracking polls - can't remember if Zogby's was or not. But the DWI revelation caused a definite shift towards Gore, a shift that took longer to measure in multiple-day tracking polls, but it was there nonetheless.
As long as Doug makes no major mistakes the rest of the way, he wins. The Democrats are pouring millions into New Jersey to try to salvage the Torch. Ain't gonna work. That dog won't hunt. Turn out the lights, the party's over.
The only bad news in the whole list is Talent versus Carnahan in Missouri. As long as Torricelli crashes and burns early on election day, you can be sure that the Republicans will retake the Senate, regardless of the results in Missouri. The Pubbies will also gain seats and hold the House.
It will be a good day for Republicans, and perhaps good enough to get Terry ("The 18-Million-Dollar Man") McAuliffe fired as head of the DNC. The Dems won't fire him for his manifest dishonesty, but they WILL fire him for failure. All favors gratefully received.
All three links below are relevant to these issues. The second one -- the cover story for the magazine of the American Academy of Actuaries, contains my predictions in print for the outcome of this election.
Congressman Billybob
Click for "Til Death Do Us Part."
Maybe it is the newsbabes that make Pete Peter...
And since that news broke late on a Friday, any polls that don't take data on weekends never would have had any DUI shift show up before the election.
No, they did not. Rasmussen's showed an 8 point lead for Bush right up to the end. We thought it was going to be like Reagan in 1980. THAT'S the reality; your rewriting of history is pointless.
Zogby said it was less than 2%--well within the margin of error. On FR, we were laughing and hooting derisively at him. There was even a theory running around called "Zogby's Special Sauce" alleging that he overcounted Democrats.
All that went out the window never to be heard from again after election day. I for one have never seen a single one of Rasmussen's polls cited since then--I wonder if his company even survived the humiliation of being so far off.
BOTTOM LINE: Polls are garbage. They exist only to create news. We so badly want to assuage the anticipation that we dwell on them incessantly, yet they mean nothing. That's why I said: I don't trust ANY poll, but Zogby's comes the closest to what I consider objective. Why that is, I'm not sure. I realize he's supposed to be a Dem, but he's been on the money every election that I remember.
No way on earth could that poll be accurate.
Again Zogby is not to be trusted.....throwing in the obvious repub leaders and then lying through his teeth about Toricelli and Carnahan.
The democractic party is running statewide tv ads touting that Talent (and all republicans) is for destroying Social Security, medicare, and the environment. Unfortunately, the idiots in St. Louis and KC buy these lies.
S.W. Missourian
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