Here's the NOAA forecast. This storm will threaten Brownsville and give Tejas a good soaking.
also tropical depression 13 has formed and is foreasted to develop into a hurricane as it moves into the westren Carribean sea in 72 hours.
For sale: property along the gulf coast - cheap. All inquiries responded to real quick! We're outta here.
Here's the NOAA forecast. This storm will threaten Brownsville and give Tejas a good soaking.
For starters, wind force on a surface, as expressed in pounds per square inch, varies as the square of the difference in wind velocity. So a wall, or a window, or a roof is subjected to four times as much force if the wind speed merely doubles.
And, of course, once structures, trees, and so on begin failing, the problem is hugely increased. A window might be able to withstand a 100-mph wind, but not a branch flung into it at 100 mph. And as more windows, roofs, treees and so on become airborne debris, the problem feeds upon itself.
My guess is that a 150-mph hurricane might cause ten times the damage, or more, of a 75-mph hurricane of similar size and duration. And that's without addressing the storm surge, which is also exponentially worse in stronger storms.
This one could get ugly.
000
WTNT45 KNHC 230237
TCDAT5
HURRICANE ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 22 2002
THE CENTER HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST TRACK...AND MOVED INLAND OVER NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN A FEW HOURS AGO. THUS THE CYCLONE IS WEAKENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO UNTIL IT MOVES BACK OVER WATER. ASIDE FROM THE INTERACTION WITH LAND...ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR ISIDORE TO RECOVER ITS PREVIOUS INTENSITY AND MORE...PRESUMING THAT IT RE-ENTERS THE GULF TOMORROW. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECASTS BY DAYS 2 AND 3 ARE BACK TO THOSE SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY FORECASTING HAS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES. IF THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE IS SEVERELY DISRUPTED BY THE CYCLONES TRANSIT OVER LAND...IT MAY NOT BE ABLE TO RE-INTENSIFY AS MUCH AS ANTICIPATED.
THE FORWARD SPEED APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED AND CURRENT MOTION IS
ESTIMATED TO BE A SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT...220/4. THE MORE SOUTHERLY
MOTION WAS PROBABLY THE RESULT OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ISIDORE. GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL HURRICANE
MODEL AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TURN BACK TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SHOULD
BEGIN TO BUILD TO THE EAST OF ISIDORE...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A MORE
NORTHWARD MOTION. NOT MUCH INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
UNTIL A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH BEGINS TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM...PROBABLY
BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
THE THREE-DAY FORECAST POINT IMPLIES AN EVENTUAL THREAT TO EITHER
THE NORTHWEST OR NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST...HOWEVER IT IS STILL
TOO EARLY TO BE MORE SPECIFIC ABOUT THE THREAT.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/0300Z 20.8N 89.5W 90 KTS
12HR VT 23/1200Z 20.7N 90.3W 80 KTS
24HR VT 24/0000Z 21.0N 91.0W 95 KTS
36HR VT 24/1200Z 21.8N 92.0W 115 KTS
48HR VT 25/0000Z 22.8N 92.5W 125 KTS
72HR VT 26/0000Z 25.0N 93.0W 125 KTS
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