Skip to comments.The Catastrophic Global Warming Myth
Posted on 08/16/2002 1:49:55 PM PDT by The Raven
Last month, the Bush White House, citing a new study, revisited its position on global warming. The media went into a feeding frenzy and, like an e-mail scam that wont die, the global warming debate has again been resuscitated. Unfortunately, the new study is based on the same old studies chief among them the 1996 IPCC s Summary for Policy Makers -- whose conclusions rest on three fallacious claims:
1) Based on historical weather data, average global temperatures have risen dramatically in the latter half of the 20th Century.
2) Scientific research indicates that the cause of such rising temperatures is man made.
3) There is a consensus among scientists supporting both claims.
The first claim that global temperatures have risen dramatically since 1940 finds its source in the
approximately 100 year-old temperature record of the National Weather Service. According to the NASA report, Global Climate Monitoring: The Accuracy of Satellite Data, though, the NWS record is based strictly on surface temperature readings. When weather balloon and satellite records are examined one finds temperatures either stayed the same or actually declined by as much as 1 degree F during that period.
What if we step outside the NWS box?
Data extrapolated from tree ring, ice core and lake sediment indicate that in the 18th Century the average world sea and surface temperatures were 71 degrees F. Climatologists refer to this period as The Little Ice Age. Such data also show that in 1000 BCE the average global temperature was over 25 degrees Celsius or 77 degrees F. By comparison, the average global temperature in 1999 was 73.5 degrees F. The conclusion to reach about the claim of dramatically rising global temperatures in the latter half of the 20th Century is clear. First, it depends on where you stick your thermometer, on the surface, (whose reading will be highly inaccurate due to urban hot spots) or in the atmosphere (the most accurate readings). Second, the significance of the data depend upon the historical climate record of the planet. Here, as with any kind of scientific data, context and perspective is everything.
Of the second claim, that the cause of global warming is man-made, environmental activists point to the correlation between recent global industrialization and the sweltering summers of 1998 and 1999. A correlation, though, is not proof of cause. If global industrialization were the cause of planetary warming, the satellite and balloon temperature record from 1940 to 1980 a period of far greater worldwide
industrialization would show a marked increase in average global temperatures, which it does not. Indeed, such data show temperatures declining.
A cause and effect relationship, though, has been discovered between solar activity and global temperatures. Danish climatologists Friis-Christensen and K. Lassen (in the 1991 issue of Science) and Douglas V. Hoyt and Dr. Kenneth H. Schatten (in their book, The Role of the Sun in Climate Change) found that global temperature variations during the past century are virtually all due to the variations in solar activity.
What about carbon dioxide levels? Scientists have found that past carbon dioxide levels, based, again, on historical and pre-historical tree ring, ice core and lake sediment samples, have changed significantly without human influence. Note, too, that between 1940 and 1980, when man-made levels of CO2 swelled rapidly, there was a decline in temperatures.
If scientific temperature records belie global warming; if scientists conclude that global temperatures are minimally affected by man; where, then, is scientific consensus the third claim supporting the notion of global warming? The answer is: there isnt any.
In 1996 the UNs Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change the IPCC -- released a document titled, Summary for Policy Makers, which supported the notion of global warming. Environmentalists crowed that 15,000 scientists had signed the document.
However, the report was doctored without the knowledge of most of those 15,000 scientists, whose protests became so vocal that the lead authors backed off their conclusions, disavowing the document as a political tract, not a scientific report.
In 1998, 17,000 scientists, six of whom are Nobel Laureates, signed the Oregon Petition, which declares, in part: There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of greenhouse gasses is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth's atmosphere and disruption of the Earth's climate.
In 1999 over ten thousand of the worlds most renowned climatologists, astrophysicists, meteorologists, etc., signed an open letter by Frederick Seitz, NAS Past President, that states, in part: the Kyoto Accord is based upon flawed ideas.
Finally, in a paper in June of 2001, aptly titled, GLOBAL WARMING: The Press Gets It Wrong our report doesn't support the Kyoto treaty, Dr. Richard S. Lindzen, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, wrote: Science, in the public arena, is commonly used as a source of authority with which to bludgeon political opponents and propagandize uninformed citizens.
In light of these facts, if the continual resurrection of the issue of global warming in the media is not a consummate example of the Big Lie, Id be hard pressed to find a better one.
--Steven Brockerman is an assistant editor for Capitalism Magazine, www.capitalismmagazine.com
And for insurance (since they aren't positive).
"This temperature update presents the NASA satellite measurements of monthly temperature anomaliesthe difference between the observed values and the 19791998 mean values. Global satellite measurements are made from a series of orbiting platforms that sense the average temperature in various atmospheric layers. Here, we present the lowest level, which matches nearly perfectly with the mean temperatures measured by weather balloons in the layer between 5,000 and 28,000 feet. The satellite measurements are considered accurate to within 0.01 deg C and provide more uniform coverage of the entire globe than surface measurements, which tend to concentrate over land.
"June 2002: The global average temperature departure was 0.20 deg C; the Northern Hemisphere temperature departure was 0.217 deg C; and the Southern Hemisphere departure was 0.183 deg C.
"Below: Monthly satellite temperatures for the Northern Hemisphere (top) and Southern Hemisphere (bottom). Trend lines indicate statistically significant changes only.
The weather is changing
It never hasnt been.
The Sun causes temperatures on Earth to increase? Who'd a thunk it?
All this time, I thought it was my SUV that caused the seasons to change.
Yes, but when wasn't it ever?
I must say I don't like the changes.
I know what you mean. This afternoon, we had a thunderstorm in my neck of New Jersey.
I was very scared, as I couldnt recall moisture falling from the sky like that.
Somebody told me they call it rain. My dirt-lawn will be thrilled to see it.
The cause of this phenomenon is something else entirely. At this point, anyone who tells me with the air of certainty that man-made emissions are the culprit, will be considered a charlatan.
However, they cannot be ruled out either. But crippling industry (Kyoto) should not be done before convincing evidence is in, and before a cost-benefits analysis is conducted. The cure might still turn out to be worse than the disease.
Yes, but when wasn't it ever?
It never wasnt never ever.
Don't sweat it. Those charts are utterly meaningless. They show temperature variations over a 23 year period. The Earth has been experiencing "weather" for billions of years.
23 years isn't a sample set...it's a data point. Statistically worthless.
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