Gephardt Eyes Massive Gains: Party Could Pick up 40 House Seats

Roll Call ^ | 7/18/02 | Ethan Wallison

[cincinnati65]

And if I keep saying this enough, and it gets printed enough....maybe it'll come true.

[Demidog]

Yeah, of course. However, it is pretty rare for incumbents to lose in the primary.

Looks like I was thinking they were all GOP candidates but obviously that was wrong. There's a little-commented on "kick the bums out" sentiment that looks to be building among the electorate.

[MissAmericanPie]

He's ahead in the polls, and who is Bubba?

[smiley]

...and don't forget the southern states....they are becoming more and more republican....look at the last two elections....overwhelmingly conservative where the democraps had a lock on these states for several decades.

[GraniteStateConservative]

Texas had 32, but added 2 more, so they have 34 now.
California had 54, but added 1 more, so they have 55 now.

A recent poll has Cornyn up 51-36, Perry up 55-37, and Dewhurst up 50-40.

What congressional race are you talking about you think the Democrat's have sewn up? Both of the new seats will go GOP and the only remotely competitive one is TX-23 (Bonilla vs. Cuellar) and I don't see Bonilla losing (for many reasons I could share). I think the appointment of Texan Tony Garza as Ambassador to Mexico will help the GOP in TX, too.

[Coop]

There's a little-commented on "kick the bums out" sentiment that looks to be building among the electorate.

I disagree. Condit and Hilliard brought it on themselves, and the rest can be attributed to redistricting - which overall made most incumbents stronger.

[Uncle Miltie]

Gephardt may well win, considering much of the conservative grass roots will stay home.

Steel protectionism
Kennedy Education Plan
Pork Spending
Farm Bill
Prescription Benefit
Lumber protectionism

Who needs these pseudo-Republicans, when you can vote for a Democrat and get the REAL THING?

My checkbook is closed, and my yard will have no signs, and I will work for no Republican until they recall their principles and act on them occassionally.

B.C.

[GraniteStateConservative]

Ok, that's fine.

[Poohbah]

Some people would prefer the Republican leadership to be kamikazes. But they should note who won and who lost that war.

[Hank Rearden]

What makes you think the Republicrats will fight back? They've caved in on every socialist piece of legislation to come down the pike in the last year, roll over at the least whiff of a battle and in general act like frightened little girls. They're "led" in the Senate by a fairy with a bad hairpiece and in the house by the Pillsbury Doughboy. Neither could fight their way out of a wet paper bag.

Plus they demonstrate no principles whatsoever, much less an aggressive attitude against Big Stupid Government.

Is Big Stupid Government bigger or smaller under Wimp II's administration? More or less expensive?

Why should we vote for these guys? Because they're not democRats? Not good enough; there are people who want limited government and represent my views; they do not have an R or D after their name.

[NormsRevenge]

"As this unfolds day after day, I think there's a good chance the Republicans will be turned out [of power] and the Democrats will be given a chance
to get at this cowboy mentality [in Corporate America]," said Rep. Max Sandlin (D-Texas), a chief deputy whip.


The demonRats have declared War on America...

Always the Blame Game .. And Now, Here They Are Trying to Destroy America's Confidence in the Free Market Model. Go Figure ..

Damn socialist, commie creeps. How many jobs have you sent out of country lately or outright obliterated by your actions, Rat$ ?

[EternalVigilance]

My checkbook is closed, and my yard will have no signs, and I will work for no Republican until they recall their principles and act on them occassionally.

So you are going to punish principled conservatives along with the RINOs? That makes no sense to me.

FReepmail me, and I'll give you the names of a dozen very worthy conservative Republicans who desperately need your assistance.

[Scott from the Left Coast]

Government isn't a game - or is it?

To Democrats it is blood sport. Game written very large.

Democrats would prefer George Bush out of power to Saddam Hussein out of power. Indeed, if the Democrats were given a choice between a million (or even 10 million, or even 100 million) American lives and total control of government or saving the lives and being out of power -- get out the coffins, the RATS would trade your life, the lives of your family, friends and millions and millions of fellow countrymen to retake power.

I don't exaggerate. They are that obsessed...and that evil.

[Coop]

Yup, 32 votes for TX back then. My mistake. Thanks for that and the Cornyn poll result. I had not yet seen that, surprisingly given that it was dated in mid May. Adding it to the spreadsheet!

[Diddle E. Squat]

Ah yes, another example of brilliant logic. When faced with a crisis, instead of trying to overcome it you decide that jumping off a bridge is the best solution.

Quitters are gutless.

[hchutch]

I agree. Therefore, they have to be stopped. With RINOs or moderates if we must, with conservatives if possible.

The Democrats have become little better than a mafia. I don't agree with folks like Nancy Johnson or Chris Shays very much, but at LEAST they SEEM to be honest.

[EternalVigilance]

Not good enough; there are people who want limited government and represent my views; they do not have an R or D after their name.

How many of them will have a seat in the Congress next year?

I'll repeat what I said above:

If you're not happy with the Republican leadership, focus your efforts on electing a new crop of conservative leaders to the Congress.

That's the answer, not putting yourself on the sidelines.

[hchutch]

They should keep in mind that kamikazes are single-use weapons.

[deport]

Guess that depends upon which poll you want to look at as to who is ahead...... It's way too early to put much faith in the results of these polls... Wait until after the Labor Day events and the campaigns begin to get involved then start to see what the electorate is saying.....

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UNIVERSITY OF HOUSTON

A University of Houston Center for Public Policy poll, conducted 6/20-29/02, surveyed 739 registered voters; margin of error +/- 3.5% (release, 7/2). Tested: Attorney General John Cornyn (R) and former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk (D).

General election matchup:

             All Wht Blk His GOP Dem Ind Con Mod Lib
Kirk         36% 32% 54% 41% 17% 56% 33% 39% 38% 46%
Cornyn       28  34  15  15  50  15  26  30  24  23
Undec.       34  33  29  42  32  28  41  31  38  28

                 Men Wom
Kirk             37% 36%
Cornyn           32  25
Undec.           29  39

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ARTHUR FINKELSTEIN AND ASSOCIATES (R)

An Arthur Finkelstein and Associates (R) poll, conducted 6/26-27/02 for Attorney General John Cornyn (R), surveyed 500 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 7/3).

General election matchup:

            All  Lib Mod Con  Dallas San Antonio Houston
Cornyn      37%  19% 24% 51%    35%      43%       44%
Kirk        30   64  42  19     39       27        21
Undec.      32   17  35  30     26       31        36
 

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BENNETT PETTS BLUMENTHAL (D)

A Bennett, Petts and Blumenthal (D) poll, conducted 6/9-16/02 for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, surveyed 800 registered voters; margin of error +/- 3.5% (DSCC release, 6/25). Tested: Attorney General John Cornyn (R) and former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk (D).

General election matchup:

Kirk         46%
Cornyn       42
Other        12

[GraniteStateConservative]

Redistricting has affected the ability of incumbents to win primaries. Condit's seat had changed (though that wasn't the only reason obviously), Sawyer's seat had changed (it became more pro-labor, and he supported things like NAFTA, normalization for China, and fast-track trade promotion authority), Kerns lost to another incumbent Republican congressman because of redistricting, Mascara lost to another incumbent Democrat congressman because of redistricting, and Hilliard lost because he's a crazy anti-semite who should never have been elected in the first place.

What trend do you see that I don't?