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Gephardt Eyes Massive Gains: Party Could Pick up 40 House Seats
Roll Call ^ | 7/18/02 | Ethan Wallison

Posted on 07/18/2002 7:00:10 AM PDT by Coop

House Minority Leader Richard Gephardt (D-Mo.) has told senior Democrats that the party could pick up as many as 40 House seats if the continuously unfolding corporate scandals can be kept on the political radar screen until November, according to sources. The figure far surpasses any that has been suggested previously - even privately - by Gephardt or any other top Democratic campaign official, all of whom have consistently indicated that the House will be won or lost by a slim margin.

"He said if this thing plays out right, we could pick up 30 to 40 seats," said one Democratic source who attended a recent meeting where Gephardt threw out the figures.

Gephardt's remarks, which were confirmed by a second source at the meeting, came on the heels of twin political developments that dovetailed with the unfolding scandals on Wall Street: revelations that the Securities and Exchange Commission was investigating accounting practices at Halliburton Co. when Vice President Cheney was at its helm; and re-emerging speculation about President Bush's stock trades as a board member at Harken Energy Co. more than a decade ago.

Neither new development - let alone the continuing revelations of questionable business activities in some of the country's top board rooms - has so far appeared to shift the political landscape on Capitol Hill.

But Gephardt's private remarks to colleagues would seem to underscore the political stakes Democrats see in an issue that is only beginning to set in among voters.

"As this unfolds day after day, I think there's a good chance the Republicans will be turned out [of power] and the Democrats will be given a chance to get at this cowboy mentality [in Corporate America]," said Rep. Max Sandlin (D-Texas), a chief deputy whip.

Asked whether he believes Democrats could do as well as Gephardt has suggested privately, Sandlin said, "I think there's certainly the possibility of [40 seats] as Corporate America unravels before our very eyes."

A similar outlook has taken hold across the Caucus. One top Democratic strategist, referring to only the latest accounting scandal on Wall Street, even went so far as to say, "I tell you [that if] you drop another WorldCom thing in September, the Republicans are really [screwed]."

Gephardt has certainly appeared confident that the issue of corporate ethics will ultimately play out to the Democrats' benefit.

Meeting with the top leadership Tuesday afternoon, Gephardt opened by advising Members to read a Paul Krugman column in that day's New York Times that accused President Bush of shady land dealings and cronyism in Texas. He also touted a similarly themed story in the New Yorker magazine.

"[Gephardt] said he thinks this is where the whole thing is headed," said one source who was in the room.

Republicans have suspected from the outset that Gephardt and the House Democrats would try to capitalize on the corporate scandals for political advantage - what White House Press Secretary Ari Fleischer has called the "secret plan" to keep the issue alive through the elections.

Steve Schmidt, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, accused Gephardt of saying that he wants to restore confidence to the markets, while at the same time sowing anxiety among investors and "cheerleading for the market to decline" in order to gain politically.

"He's trying to talk down the market," Schmidt said. "If he's saying [the Democrats could make major gains], he is basically saying, 'I want to exploit this politically. I don't want to solve this.' "

Rejecting those criticisms, Gephardt has repeatedly pointed to his calls for quick House action on a package of reforms, put forward by Senate Banking Committee Chairman Paul Sarbanes (D-Md.), which passed that chamber 97-0.

In fact, Gephardt has accused Republican leaders of foot-dragging on reform, presumably in the interest of placating GOP benefactors in corporate America. Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, Gephardt cited reports that suggested strong resistance to the Sarbanes measure among key Republicans, particularly House Financial Services Chairman Mike Oxley (R-Ohio).

"It's always the same with them," Gephardt said. "It's like [they're] trying to get something done, but really [the plan is to] slow it down and water it down. That's their goal, that's their game plan, that's their strategy."

Gephardt spokesman Erik Smith said he had never heard Gephardt privately suggest the party could ride the corporate scandals to a landslide this November. He also suggested that 40 seats would be an unlikely prediction, since Gephardt has said only 40 districts are in play this year.

"I don't think he believes we could win all 40," Smith said.

But Smith added that Gephardt does believe that the political climate is now "better that at any other point this cycle," in large part because of revelations of wrongdoing in corporate board rooms.

"He said we're in an environment where winning the House is becoming more and more of a reality," Smith said. "He's bullish."

The upcoming one-year anniversary of Sept. 11 and the ongoing debate over the creation of a Department of Homeland Security have presented significant political hurdles, however.

Even before the corporate scandals began to unfold in earnest, Gephardt was privately expressing concern that GOP leaders would try to stretch out debate over the new department in order to draw attention away from issues the Democrats would want to raise in the home stretch before the elections.

Indeed, Republican leaders initially suggested that planning for the new department would take until the end of the year. Gephardt responded by putting forward an ambitious timetable yoked to the anniversary of the terrorist attacks, in hopes that the issue would be off the table before the campaign enters its most intense phase in the fall.

The Sept. 11 time frame has essentially been adopted. But no one yet knows what will transpire once the basic blueprint for the department, put together by a special committee of top House lawmakers, comes up against conflicting plans from powerful committee chairmen and ranking members, who have their own ideas about what should comprise the new department.

Already, Gephardt has faced strong resistance to quick action from institutionalists in the Caucus, such as Appropriations Committee ranking member David Obey (D-Wis.), who are devotees of Congressional prerogative. In the Senate, Appropriations Committee Chairman Robert Byrd (D-W.Va.) has threatened to filibuster the legislation.


TOPICS: Front Page News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: corporatescandal; gephardt; house
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To: hchutch
I believe that it is usually Democrats that name the game for the election season. This year they tried several moves from different games before finding one that got a response. Since the Democrats have named the game, Republicans now get to choose how it is played.
121 posted on 07/18/2002 10:15:09 AM PDT by RightWhale
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To: RightWhale; PhiKapMom; Mudboy Slim; Miss Marple; Grampa Dave
Perhaps, but Rush just said that the White House is picking up on his defense of Cheney. Buford at Gettysburg, pretty much tricked a Confederate Division into a major fight in which Robert E. Lee got his butt kicked.

A lot of these Democratic corporate donors, particularly to Clinton, have played fast and loose with rules. Remember Bernie Schwarz of Loral? Corzine and McAuliffe are dirty. And we can air that laundry out. I don't think Gephardt gets that just yet. I think the Dems are gonna be toasted by this.
122 posted on 07/18/2002 10:22:13 AM PDT by hchutch
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To: RightWhale
I remember reading that NYTimes article early this morning. It's a nice contrast to this one. Thanks for linking.
123 posted on 07/18/2002 10:22:25 AM PDT by Coop
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Bush and Cheney will get thru this storm....but the House, based on stereotypes and historical trends, will be lost to the Dems.

Then brace yourselves for a "meaner" D.C. than we have ever seen.

124 posted on 07/18/2002 10:35:10 AM PDT by willgetsome
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To: hchutch
Just more bravo sierra from this insane rat!

Drug Screens on all Rats should be ran before after statements like these by Rat Gephardt!

125 posted on 07/18/2002 10:38:26 AM PDT by Grampa Dave
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To: Coop
*snicker*
126 posted on 07/18/2002 10:41:45 AM PDT by Dales
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To: Coop
"As this unfolds day after day, I think there's a good chance the Republicans will be turned out [of power] and the Democrats will be given a chance to get at this cowboy mentality [in Corporate America]," said Rep. Max Sandlin (D-Texas), a chief deputy whip.

This quote will be remembered by Texas voters this fall, I predict.

127 posted on 07/18/2002 11:30:45 AM PDT by pabianice
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To: Torie; crasher
Hmm, I wonder what you guys think?.........
128 posted on 07/18/2002 11:36:03 AM PDT by KQQL
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To: Free the USA; Fish out of Water; Vis Numar; Dan from Michigan
@
129 posted on 07/18/2002 11:37:11 AM PDT by KQQL
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To: Coop
Put down the crack pipe, Dick!
130 posted on 07/18/2002 11:43:30 AM PDT by Rockitz
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To: KQQL
The only war the Dems could pick 40 seats is if Bush where to try an October suprise invasion of Iraq and screw it up like Carter's hostage rescue.
131 posted on 07/18/2002 11:46:02 AM PDT by Free the USA
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To: Movemout
Here's the REAL difference betweem a Republican and a Democrat.....A Republican THINKS his constiuents are SMART.....a Democrat KNOWS his are STUPID.

The Pubs thinks their voters have common sense, so they don't think they have to explain.....the Dems know that theirs are SHEEP just WAITING for their Thinking Orders.

The quicker the Pubs realize this the better.

132 posted on 07/18/2002 12:34:53 PM PDT by Ann Archy
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To: Mr. Bird
If Whitewater proved anything, it's that people don't get extremely worked up about esoteric financial shenanigans.

Wrong. People don't get extremely worked up about Democrats' esoteric financial shenanigans. Especially when you have the media downplaying and obfuscating. When did Clinton EVER get nine questions about Whitewater at a press conference?

133 posted on 07/18/2002 12:40:13 PM PDT by Maceman
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To: Maceman
Nine questions? LOL Heck, he only had to face one (1) question about a credible rape charge.
134 posted on 07/18/2002 12:50:27 PM PDT by Coop
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To: KQQL; Torie
I haven't done the math for sure, but I don't think the Dems gain 40 seats even if they win every single seat that is now Likely/Leaning/tossup. In other words, if they win every single seat anyone has ever said might possibly be somewhat competitive, they still don't have the numbers to pickup 40 seats. That the Democrats pickup 40 seats is clearly less than 1 in 1000. It would take something to totally redefine what this election is about for that to happen. If tommorrow Bush was found guilty of Watergate-scale violations, and this dragged on through election day, that would still not be enough for Democrats to pickup 40 seats. It would take something that really, really scared the American people, for so many entrenched Republican incumbents (in Republican districts), to lose to 3rd or 4th tier Democratic candidates.
135 posted on 07/18/2002 12:54:57 PM PDT by crasher
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To: crasher
House races turn so much on local personalities and issues. An exception was 1994, but it is hard to imagine that the public will lash out at the Bush administration over this. If the Dems get the maximum amount of traction that they might conceivably expect if they get lucky, they might gain 15 seats. That strikes me as unlikely though. The Pubbies have got the message, and are going to swallow the Dem program on accounting firms etc (the Sarbanes bill) just about whole.

Where all this could hurt is in the Senate races. The GOP might end up losing a couple of seats.

136 posted on 07/18/2002 1:40:36 PM PDT by Torie
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To: hchutch
"Ring Dem Bells!!"
(To be sung to Bob Dylan's "Ring Them Bells")

Ring Dem bells, you heathens with yer Big Guv'ment schemes...
Ring Dem bells from yer sanctuaries where Vile Lib'rals preach!!
"Re-Impeach!!" Mudboy cried...
"We got Truth on our side...
"And Clinton's Power's fractured...Sweet Justice be thine!!"

Ring Dem bells, good FReepers, let yer OUTRAGE show!!
Ring Dem bells...make yer righteous stand, so John Ashcroft will know!!
Folks, it's Rush Hour now...
Help us FReep 'gainst the Power!!
Lord, the sun is goin' down upon Left's sacred cows!!

Ring Dem bells, Sweet Justice, tell yer Congressman...
Ring Dem bells so the World will know McAuliffe's SCUM!!
Folks, the Networks are asleep...
But their Power's weak...
And the Country's still filled with lost sheep.

Ring Dem bells...fer Left's Blind Ignorance!!
Ring Dem bells for those morally-bereft!
Ring Dem bells for Left's chosen few...
Who would judge the many...
Yet say, "Slick is KEWL!!"
Ring Dem bells for the Chi-Com SPIES...
For the kids that died...
When innocents FRIED!!

Ring Dem bells, brave Patriots, shan't let Tyranny bloom!!
Ring Dem bells for our Sailors whom Slick Willie entombed!! List of crimes is long...
But Bold FReepers are strong...
And we're breakin' down resistance to Rightin' Wrongs!!

Mudboy Slim

Folks, it's time we demonstrated the Power of FReepin' to those who would deprive us of Justice and Liberty!! Terry McAuliffe, outspoken proponent of Campaign Finance Reform and Chairman of the DNC, has committed multiple FELONIES to get to his position of prominence in the DemocRATic Party, yet no one seems willing to hold him accountable!! As Bill Clinton's Chief Fundraiser in the '96 Presidential elections, McAuliffe was the mastermind behind the Union/DemocRAT scheme to bilk hard-working blue-collar workers out of Millions of Dollars of Pension Funds so as to provide Bill Clinton with the cash to retain his position of Power, and no INDICTMENT has been forthcoming. Elle Bee tells me there is a 5-year Statute of Limitations--expiring this Fall--on this Crime, and George Bush's Attorney General, John Ashcroft, has not said one word about holding the DNC Chairman accountable for his crimes!! THIS INJUSTICE SHALL NOT STAND!!

A small contingent of Justice-loving FReepers have--for over a month--been promoting a series of threads exposing McAuliffe's long criminal history, but now it's time to take the Truth beyond FreeRepublic!! Please assist our efforts with your emails, phone calls, and snail mails to those who need to expose this lowlife SCUM for all the World to see!!

Thanks for your help in Ringin' the Bells of Justice!!

FReegards...MUD

1 Posted on 08/17/2001 22:59:43 PDT by Mudboy Slim (NOW or NEVER Time, FReepers!!)

Quite Sincerely...MUD

137 posted on 07/18/2002 1:41:50 PM PDT by Mudboy Slim
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To: MissAmericanPie
Bubba is the guy in East Texas who dont much like anyone if they aint from round here...You know the guy with the gun rack in the back window of his pick up truck!
138 posted on 07/18/2002 2:12:07 PM PDT by CPT Clay
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To: Grampa Dave
My guess is Gephardt had a massive brain fart. Cant think of any other explanation for such a stoopid statement.
139 posted on 07/18/2002 2:20:29 PM PDT by Don Carlos
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To: Torie
I was thinking about 1994 after I saw Gephardt's prediction. And I really think even 1994 was about a lot more than the national environment. The GOP made big gains in the House because the Democrats were holding a lot of seats they shouldn't have been holding, the GOP got a fair deal from redistricting, the GOP had a good group of candidates, the Democrats had some real losers running, and the Democrats had LOTS of retirements. In a neutral environment the GOP might still have gained 30 seats that year.

In the Senate, the GOP had an outstanding group of candidates: Snowe, Kyl, DeWine, Frist, Thompson, Ashcroft. And then five very credible candidates in Abraham, Inhofe, Santorum, Thomas, and Grams. Grams was not a great candidate, but the Dems put up a real loser. The Dems also put up some other losers here. There were 22 Dems up, and 13 Reps. The Dems had 6 retirements, we had 3. In a neutral environment the Democrats would have lost maybe 5 seats. For Governors the 10 biggest states up that year saw Wilson, Bush, Pataki, Bush, Ridge, Edgar, Engler, Voinovich, Millner, and Weld run. Again, all very good candidates. In fact, all except Millner are truly exceptional candidates. 1994 also saw Alaska go from having a Republican Governor to a Democrat. Several Democrats in very Republican districts survived in the House. A couple of Democrats, in districts Bush carried in 2000, replaced retiring Democrats (I think Luther was one of them). In 1994, local affairs played a big part. And we beat them at that.

140 posted on 07/18/2002 2:33:10 PM PDT by crasher
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