Replies

I haven't done the math for sure, but I don't think the Dems gain 40 seats even if they win every single seat that is now Likely/Leaning/tossup. In other words, if they win every single seat anyone has ever said might possibly be somewhat competitive, they still don't have the numbers to pickup 40 seats. That the Democrats pickup 40 seats is clearly less than 1 in 1000. It would take something to totally redefine what this election is about for that to happen. If tommorrow Bush was found guilty of Watergate-scale violations, and this dragged on through election day, that would still not be enough for Democrats to pickup 40 seats. It would take something that really, really scared the American people, for so many entrenched Republican incumbents (in Republican districts), to lose to 3rd or 4th tier Democratic candidates.

House races turn so much on local personalities and issues. An exception was 1994, but it is hard to imagine that the public will lash out at the Bush administration over this. If the Dems get the maximum amount of traction that they might conceivably expect if they get lucky, they might gain 15 seats. That strikes me as unlikely though. The Pubbies have got the message, and are going to swallow the Dem program on accounting firms etc (the Sarbanes bill) just about whole.

Where all this could hurt is in the Senate races. The GOP might end up losing a couple of seats.