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I haven't done the math for sure, but I don't think the Dems gain 40 seats even if they win every single seat that is now Likely/Leaning/tossup. In other words, if they win every single seat anyone has ever said might possibly be somewhat competitive, they still don't have the numbers to pickup 40 seats. That the Democrats pickup 40 seats is clearly less than 1 in 1000. It would take something to totally redefine what this election is about for that to happen. If tommorrow Bush was found guilty of Watergate-scale violations, and this dragged on through election day, that would still not be enough for Democrats to pickup 40 seats. It would take something that really, really scared the American people, for so many entrenched Republican incumbents (in Republican districts), to lose to 3rd or 4th tier Democratic candidates.