June 6, 2002
Posted on 06/09/2002 3:51:16 PM PDT by vannrox
June 6, 2002
In a year when fewer than five dozen House seats are "in play," fewer than a dozen of them can really be categorized as tossups.
With all 435 House seats on the ballot this year, I count a mere nine as true tossups, contests where both sides have an equal chance of victory.
I'm not counting admittedly competitive races such as Rep. Bob Riley's (R) open 3rd district seat in Alabama, where the Republicans have a slight edge, or California's open 18th district, where the Democrats still have a narrow advantage. I'm talking about a handful of races where, either because of the makeup of the districts or the confusing nature of the primaries, neither side has anything approaching an advantage.
Of the nine contests, three are newly drawn districts in states that gained seats in reapportionment, four are open seats and two involve incumbents. If one party wins most of these contests, you'll know it is having a very good election night in November.
Here are the nine, in alphabetical order:
Arizona 1st. This new district includes much of the northeastern corner of the state. But while it covers a vast stretch of sparsely populated, rural territory that borders Utah and New Mexico, it also includes fast-growing areas between Tucson and Phoenix, and established communities, such as Prescott, Sedona and Flagstaff, north of Phoenix.
Both parties have competitive primaries, but it's the district's fundamental partisanship that accounts for the tossup nature of the 1st district. George W. Bush carried the new district in 2000, but with only 50.8 percent of the vote (to 45.7 percent for Al Gore), and both parties agree that it's a "fair fight" district.
Colorado 7th.
This new seat, which includes parts of Jefferson, Adams and Arapahoe counties, surrounds Denver to the east, north and west. Gore won it 49.8 percent to 48.9 percent over Bush two years ago. Both parties have multicandidate primaries, which doesn't help clarify prospects for November.
Connecticut 5th.
Incumbent Reps. Jim Maloney (D) and Nancy Johnson (R) battle it out in a district that went 53 percent for Gore and just 43 percent for Bush. But those numbers don't tell the whole story. Half of this district is currently represented by Maloney, while the other half comes from Johnson's current territory. Maloney's announcement that he'd serve just one more term if he prevails appears to benefit Johnson.
Indiana 2nd.
Democratic Rep. Tim Roemer's retirement and a significant change in the district's lines combine to create uncertainty in the race between businessman Chris Chocola (R) and former Rep. Jill Long Thompson (D). While Bush carried the district 54 percent to 45 percent, Democrat Frank O'Bannon beat Republican David McIntosh 59.8 percent to 39 percent in the 2002 gubernatorial race there, and the Democratic nominee for state attorney general, who lost statewide, carried the new 2nd district.
Thompson didn't represent any of this redrawn district when she was in the House, while Chocola refuses to move into the district, arguing that he ran in part of the district in 2000 and Democratic legislators intentionally drew his home outside the district.
Maine 2nd.
Both parties have crowded primaries, making the November outlook messy. Gore carried this district narrowly in 2000, and the outgoing Congressman, Rep. John Baldacci (D), is running for governor. But before Baldacci, this district was represented for more than 20 years by Republicans Olympia Snowe and Bill Cohen, and the Republicans may well nominate a candidate in the same moderate mold.
Minnesota 2nd.
It's Rep. Bill Luther (D)against challenger John Kline (R). Again. For the third time. But this one is in a district that is less favorable for Luther.
Nevada 3rd.
The numbers tell the story in this matchup between Democratic nominee Dario Herrera and Republican Jon Porter in a new 3rd district. Gore beat Bush in this new district 48.8 percent to 48.3 percent. The party registration was 41.4 percent Democrat to 41.3 percent Republican when it was finalized. Whatever advantages the Democrats received from the Bush administration's decision on storing nuclear waste at Yucca Mountain probably has been offset by negative stories about Herrera.
New Hampshire 1st.
While the Democrats have rallied around well-funded state legislator Martha Fuller Clark as their nominee, the Republicans are headed for a messy September primary. That enhances Democratic chances. But once the Republicans get a standard-bearer and focus on Clark's legislative record, any Democratic advantage will melt away quickly. But until that melting begins and the Republicans have a candidate, this is a tossup.
New Mexico 2nd.
Sometimes you get the feeling neither party can win this seat. While state Sen. John Arthur Smith won the Democratic nomination on Tuesday and businessman Steve Pearce won the GOP nod, the general election contest looks like a dead heat, at least at the start. Retiring Republican Rep. Joe Skeen has held the seat for more than 20 years, but the district has a large Hispanic minority, giving the Democratic nominee a solid base from which to start.
It has been real messy so far....and the quality of the candidates is not too great. The latest entry, with a good shot because the others are so poor.....which prompted some Repubs to recruit him is the son of a former, though fairly conservative, Democrat State Senator. I believe he worked in the Dukakis campaign.
I can't believe he dropped out. His group of workers helped the Wiz win his Executive Coucilor election. He also had a great relationship with the Bush team in D. C. I think he was finance chairman of Bush 2000 in NH. Also, his military background was a nice line item on his political resume. I hope he decides to try again, but I'm sure plenty of his supporters are disillusioned by how it all fell apart so quickly.
Arizona 1st---New Seat.---hmmmmmmm Beats me who will win this seat....
Colorado 7th.--New seat. Advantage RATS.
Connecticut 5th. Advantage GOP.
Indiana 2nd. . Advantage GOP.
Maine 2nd. . Advantage RATS.
Minnesota 2nd.. Advantage GOP.
Nevada 3rd.New Seat . Advantage GOP.
New Hampshire 1st.. Advantage GOP.
New Mexico 2nd. . Advantage RATS.
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