Cosmic catastrophe 'a certainty'

BBC ^ | 9 May 02 | Dr David Whitehouse

[RightWhale]

Wednesday, 8 May, 2002, 14:10 GMT 15:10 UK

Cosmic catastrophe 'a certainty'

Sooner or later, a catastrophe from space will wipe out almost all life on Earth.

According to Dr Arnon Dar, of the Technion Space Research Institute, Israel, a particular type of exploding star going off anywhere in our region of the Universe would devastate our planet.

Using the latest statistics and calculations, he argues that a supermassive star collapsing at the end of its lifetime would form a black hole and send out a beam of destructive radiation and particles that would sterilise any planet in its path.

The odds are that any planet in our galaxy would be affected about once every one hundred million years. "It is a certainty; the timescales are comparable to mass extinctions seen in Earth's geological record," Dr Dar told BBC News Online.

No hiding place

Supermassive stars, those with a mass substantially greater than our Sun, are scattered throughout the galaxy. It is thought that when they collapse at the end of their lives, they eject an intense beam of radiation, called gamma-rays, into space.

So powerful are these gamma-rays, and the energetic sub-atomic particles that follow in their wake, that they could have a major influence on life in our galaxy.

"If such a beam were to strike Earth, the effects would be totally devastating, unlike anything we could imagine," Dr Dar said.

On the side of Earth facing the explosion, searing shock waves will begin to rip through the atmosphere igniting infernos when they reach the ground.

Within moments of the arrival of the radiation from deep space, the atmospheric temperature will begin rising rapidly, wreaking havoc with global weather systems.

Destructive 'daughters'

All organic material on the surface of Earth will start to burn. Survivors will cower in caves and buildings. But the worst is yet to come.

The initial gamma-ray burst will last a fraction of a second. Almost immediately afterwards will come the cosmic rays, which will drench our planet for days. There will be no hiding place.

Cosmic rays are highly energetic particles travelling through space at almost the speed of light. They will slam into the atmosphere, depositing vast amounts of energy and creating swarms of destructive "daughter" particles.

These particles, called muons, will penetrate hundreds of metres into rocks so that few caves will offer protection and even deep-sea creatures will be affected by lethal doses of radiation.

The Earth's ecosystem will be destroyed. "The few who might survive will wish they had died," said Dr Dar. "They will struggle, forlornly, on a wrecked planet."

Dr Dar points out that many of the great extinctions that regularly punctuate the Earth's history are consistent with being caused by a devastating influx of radiation from space.

Threatening stars

"Direct proof that it happened this way is lacking at present," he said, "but many people are looking for it."

There is some good news! Because the gamma-ray bursts from collapsing supermassive stars are shot across the cosmos in narrow beams, probably no more than a degree across, most of them will miss the Earth.

However, the latest statistics suggest once every one hundred million years or so, we will be unlucky. Curiously, this is about the rate of global extinctions on Earth.

At the moment, astronomers do not know which star to watch. Stars, like the supermassive Eta Carinae, visible in the Southern Hemisphere, are likely to explode and send out a gamma-ray burst sometime in the next million years or so. But this particular star is not pointing in our direction.

Undoubtedly, there is a star that is, but as yet astronomers have not found it. But even if they do, will we get any warning?

"Not with our current understanding of science," said Dr Dar, "but then science progresses. Perhaps, one day we will be able to tell which stars are threatening."

[ladtx]

Kinda goes along with my theory. We're all gonna die sooner or later.

[MarkWar]

>Niven was great in his prime but the stuff he has cranked out the last decade was worthless. I didn't even bother buying the third Ringworld book.

I agree with you 100%

Personally, his short story "Cloak of Anarchy" is one of my favorite short stories of all time. (And somebody should have a text version on the web just to link the libertarians to, but I've never found an online version.) And Niven's silly essay, "Man of Steel, Woman of Kleenex," is one of the funniest fake non-fiction essays I've ever read. However, after "The Mote In God's Eye" -- which had lots of help from Robert Heinlein reviewing the early draft -- I don't think I've liked any Niven (or Pournelle) has written.

Mark W.

[aShepard]

Soon, too soon. Not soon enough for some, too soon for others

I was going to buy a case on the way home.

Better make it only a six-pack

[jpsb]

Not an expert but I do believe that the beam of radiation is alined along the polar axis of the star. Anyway if I am wrong it is a certainity I will be corrected. So you'll get your answer.

[MarkWar]

>"Cloak of Anarchy" ...never found an online version.
>>Ask him to add it here.

Thanks for the link! I just sent the webmaster an e-mail. If I get any response, I'll put up a link to the story. It is a good one.

Mark W.

[sheltonmac]

"Direct proof that it happened this way is lacking at present," he said, "but many people are looking for it."

If a Creationist said something like this he would be ridiculed as a backward-thinking, ignorant boob for believing in something that cannot be proven.

[RightWhale]

The sun [and the earth, too] orbits the Milky Way in about 200 million years. Earth might encounter the same rock cluster every 100 million years if the orbits have the same period. Unlikely.

It's like Federal Flood Insurance. They have a 500-year flood on their chart. It doesn't mean it floods every 500 years. It could flood every year for a decade, or 3 times in one year, or not flood at all for 1000 years.

Should posters to FR phrase every post as if it is the sum total of everything they have figured out to that point in time and in terms suitable to engrave on their tombstone for all eternity? Of course they should, but who does; --that would be so 910.

[mc5cents]

[sixmil]

If we got bombarded by gamma rays, one of two things would happen: everyone would die except for the Incredible Hulk and Hulkess, or we would all start turning green and muscular when driven to rage. Either way the planet would be populated, sooner or later, entirely by Hulks.

[Elsie]

the women will have to be selected for their sexual characteristics which will have to be of a highly stimulating nature.

---

No, NO, A THOUSAND times NO!!

We MUST let Nature take her course!

[sixmil]

Hulkess She-Hulk

[Revolting cat!]

Anyway, as a scientist Doctor Science ought to know that by the time this catastrophic event takes place in millions and millions of years humans will have evolved into, I dunno, dinosaurs, frogs, apes or whatever Dr Sagan says, and as such won't know what hit them, so in the end it will not matter. Or has evolution stopped now that we are, uhm, smarty panty enough to figure out that it happened in the first place?

[MarkWar]

>Or has evolution stopped now that we are, uhm, smarty panty enough to figure out that it happened in the first place?

Heheheheheheh. You said panty. Hehe. Heheheheheheheh.

Mark W.

[Elsie]

We may be able to get a feel for when these events may happen by observing an aging star that is producing iron (the last stage of necular activity, if I remember correctly). When the event happens we won't see it. we'll just get incinerated.

---

NIV Genesis 19:24
 24.  Then the LORD rained down burning sulfur on Sodom and Gomorrah--from the LORD out of the heavens.

 

 

NIV Revelation 8:7-13
 7.  The first angel sounded his trumpet, and there came hail and fire mixed with blood, and it was hurled down upon the earth. A third of the earth was burned up, a third of the trees were burned up, and all the green grass was burned up. 
 8.  The second angel sounded his trumpet, and something like a huge mountain, all ablaze, was thrown into the sea. A third of the sea turned into blood,
 9.  a third of the living creatures in the sea died, and a third of the ships were destroyed.
 10.  The third angel sounded his trumpet, and a great star, blazing like a torch, fell from the sky on a third of the rivers and on the springs of water--
 11.  the name of the star is Wormwood.  A third of the waters turned bitter, and many people died from the waters that had become bitter.
 12.  The fourth angel sounded his trumpet, and a third of the sun was struck, a third of the moon, and a third of the stars, so that a third of them turned dark. A third of the day was without light, and also a third of the night.
 13.  As I watched, I heard an eagle that was flying in midair call out in a loud voice: "Woe! Woe! Woe to the inhabitants of the earth, because of the trumpet blasts about to be sounded by the other three angels!"

 

 

NIV Matthew 3:12
 12.  His winnowing fork is in his hand, and he will clear his threshing floor, gathering his wheat into the barn and burning up the chaff with unquenchable fire."

[Elsie]

...this catastrophic event takes...

And........ cat ass trophy!

[RightWhale]

Why is it that end-of-life-as-we-know-it threads so often degenerate into apocalypse? What's one got to do with the other?

[dighton]

Let's forget about domani ....