Posted on 03/07/2002 6:09:43 PM PST by Swordmaker
With all precincts in and counted we find the following:
1,975,538 Democrats voted for a Secretary of State candidate.
1,870,979 Democrats voted for an Attorney General candidate.
1,883,226 Democrats voted for an Insurance Commissioner candidate.
1,826,829 Democrats voted for a Controller candidate.
1,840,527 Democrats voted for a Gubernatorial candidate.
Only1,589,113 Democrats voted for a "Red" Davis.
A total of 2,179,048 Republicans voted for a Gubernatorial candidate... more than any other race.
At least 4,154,586 Californians cast votes... 52.5% of those votes were for a REPUBLICAN Gubernatorial candidate!
Only 44.3% of voters voted for a Democrat Gubernatorial candidate... 19.6% of VOTING Democrats did not vote for "Red" Davis... and 6.9% of them did not find any Democrat Gubernatorial candidate to their liking!!!
Almost 20% of Democrats don't like Davis!
How any of them will be "Simon Democrats"?
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That is not the way it works. There are always limited resources in every national election. The national political parties dole out the money and support on races they have a chance to win. If a Governor or Senator is 20 points ahead or behind in August he will get zero bucks from the national party unless he pulls close in the polls.
A candidate that is 10 points behind going in to the final month will get nothing. Only if he is in a 2 or 3 point race in the final weeks will money be spent.
After the primary where a very unpopular Democrat governor is running for reelection, there is a 2 point race. At this point in 2000, Bush had twenty points over Gore. Experience tells us this is likely the high point for Simon as it was for Bush. Except Simons high point is very low. Unless Simon can quickley pull out in to a double digit lead he is toast. Unpopular office holders, like Davis typcially start out way behind, then pull close as the election nears. If they so called unpopular candidate start out close, they most often win big time. Only a 2 point lead for Simon says DAvis is only two points unpopular. It is called the devil we know as opposed to the Devil we don't know syndrome. And the current polls show Davis is not looked upon as a devil. It is also likley that Simon can not make him into one. It is likely that Davis can make Simon into a devil.
Everyone know that Davis took Riordan from a 30 point lead to a loss in a couple weeks. With that a proven fact, then is seems certain that Davis can take Simon from a 2 point lead to a 30 down any time he wants to do it. That will make Simon's job of raising money very difficult.
If Davis is able to trash Simon, the National Republican Party, Bush, and much of the state Repubicans party will not waste a second or a dime on Simon. In a state where Gore beat Bush by 12 points there is little way a conservative Republican can accomplish anything except defeat. Simon will have to prove that is not true.
Simon with the help of Gray Davis's 10 million dollars won the primary. Now it is up to Simon to prove he can win without Gray Davis's help. It is a very long shot.
But if on the other hand, Simon can keep it close in September then the Republican party will raise every buck that can be raised and they will spend it on Simon.
It is a cold hard fact of life. Candidates are not given money to prove they can win. They have to prove they can win and then they get the money. It would have been the same for Riordan. That is just the way is is. That is the way it has always been. It is the way it will always be.
Simon has a real chance to win, but it is unlikely that he will close the gap in the final four weeks. So he has to be ahead going into October. Do we have any instant polls? (Not that they are little more than a push poll).
If no other race on the card energizes the democRAT base, then Simon can win. If something comes along to pull 'Crats to vote, besides the Brown Shirts, then Simon will have a very tough time.
My fear is that the urban vote in CA can swamp the suburban and rural vote, and deliver Grayout Davis four more years to paralyze the state.
I was one of the Repubs that did a mass exodus from the Peoples Republic of California in the early nineties. While I have a few fond memories, I thank God and Greyhound that I'm gone. I sure would like to see a change.
Experience tells us exactly what we want it to tell us. Others harp back to 1966 when RR won handily. The truth is that this is a new race. Bush fumbled when he supported POS. Now he should make up for his mistake.
The greatest problems facing California are the typical modern *regressive* politics of the Democratic Party, and having Gov. Gray Davis as the Nominee!
We need to do the Democratic Party a favor, and we need to do the People of California a favor. We need to work for restoration and reform in the Democratic Party, -
And, we still need to develop an 'exit strategy' for G.G Davis.
Will it be eight long months of hard work as we work the system to inform fellow Democrats of the important issues, and as we try to find a suitable replacement for Davis? Or, will we just wait for a single day at the polls on November 5th?
YOU Pick!
Democrats - The Campaign is just Beginning! To learn the truth on the issues, and To Be Ready To
With the State of California *? $17 Billion ?* in-the-RED!
In-the-RED DAVIS, continuing to promote gray Enron Economics! - with the Davis' Budget.
* The numbers keep changing but the last number that I heard was 17 billion. I've also heard 12 billion. How can you trust a lying bunch of dems? - by dalereed - 3-7-02
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