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To: Swordmaker
Simon has a real opportunity to win IF George Bush and the RNC support him. I sure hope they do. Otherwise, it will be a disaster for all concerned.
7 posted on 03/07/2002 6:54:53 PM PST by Cicero
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To: Cicero
Simon has a real opportunity to win IF George Bush and the RNC support him

That is not the way it works. There are always limited resources in every national election. The national political parties dole out the money and support on races they have a chance to win. If a Governor or Senator is 20 points ahead or behind in August he will get zero bucks from the national party unless he pulls close in the polls.

A candidate that is 10 points behind going in to the final month will get nothing. Only if he is in a 2 or 3 point race in the final weeks will money be spent.

After the primary where a very unpopular Democrat governor is running for reelection, there is a 2 point race. At this point in 2000, Bush had twenty points over Gore. Experience tells us this is likely the high point for Simon as it was for Bush. Except Simons high point is very low. Unless Simon can quickley pull out in to a double digit lead he is toast. Unpopular office holders, like Davis typcially start out way behind, then pull close as the election nears. If they so called unpopular candidate start out close, they most often win big time. Only a 2 point lead for Simon says DAvis is only two points unpopular. It is called the devil we know as opposed to the Devil we don't know syndrome. And the current polls show Davis is not looked upon as a devil. It is also likley that Simon can not make him into one. It is likely that Davis can make Simon into a devil.

Everyone know that Davis took Riordan from a 30 point lead to a loss in a couple weeks. With that a proven fact, then is seems certain that Davis can take Simon from a 2 point lead to a 30 down any time he wants to do it. That will make Simon's job of raising money very difficult.

If Davis is able to trash Simon, the National Republican Party, Bush, and much of the state Repubicans party will not waste a second or a dime on Simon. In a state where Gore beat Bush by 12 points there is little way a conservative Republican can accomplish anything except defeat. Simon will have to prove that is not true.

Simon with the help of Gray Davis's 10 million dollars won the primary. Now it is up to Simon to prove he can win without Gray Davis's help. It is a very long shot.

But if on the other hand, Simon can keep it close in September then the Republican party will raise every buck that can be raised and they will spend it on Simon.

It is a cold hard fact of life. Candidates are not given money to prove they can win. They have to prove they can win and then they get the money. It would have been the same for Riordan. That is just the way is is. That is the way it has always been. It is the way it will always be.

8 posted on 03/07/2002 7:31:39 PM PST by Common Tator
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