BZZZZZZZZZZZZT!!!
Wrongo! We only "can't do without it" if we refuse to develop our own resources. It is a political problem, not a technical problem. Nuclear can provide the bulk of the necessary substitution and many uses of oil are easily replaced by cheap electricity. Even the resulting demand for copper can be replaced with high temperature superconductors and liquid nitrogen requiring... electricity. Many material needs can be replcaced with technology and energy.
Prices are not going to be anything like curent prices for very long. So spending the money on a processing capability to recover reserves from oil shale and sand is likely to be a wise investment right now. Another remedy that the author may not be aware of is a process in the testing phase for a new type of tertiary treatment that involves pumping natural gas steam under high pressures into existing depleated formations. As everyone knows, with the maximum treatment previously available, we only recovered about 50% of the reserves before we abandoned production. So as many reserves as have been recovered in the US are now available to recover again, given a sufficient commitment of capital and other resources.
However these are very high risk economic activities. Long term, twenty or thirty years out, the world is in fact awash in oil from the Caspian Sea and the Middle East. New technologies are close that will provide great substitutes for hydrocarbons.
The reasons the Major Oil Companies have left the United States are tax policy and political climate. Domestic energy is no longer an attractive economic activity except for small producers who can focus on Natural Gas.
There needs to be an economic incentive to the developers of these resources that does not depend on the short term tax whims of the US Congress.
In almost any event, you can plan on $5.00 at the pump in the not far distant future if we are very lucky--$17.50 if we are not.
Plenty of time to build a bunch of breeder reactors, if we just get the government (in the hands of the NIMBYs) out of the way.
but it's safe to assume that engines that run on something other than gasoline will not be significant for a good long while. And this irreplaceable gasoline accounts for about 45 percent of all our oil consumption.
What would our situation look like if 100% of our oil went into transportaion? Assume that anything that's stationary and can hook up to the grid is run by coal, hydro, wind or nuclear.
Bringing back the nuclear industry is now a national security issue - something the French and Japanese have understood for a long time.
How to rid the habit is like with smoking. Either you're smoking or you're not. Either you're using oil from the cartel or you're not.
No better than they can do without our dollars.
Every new bus in this country should be electric. Doesn't even have to be fuel cell. Could be the overhead electric powered buses that are in some cities. If there is a will, there is a way. In addition we tap the Artic and flip the bird at Saudi Arabia.
If we start seriously on the telecommuting, carpooling, converting to electric vehicles (where it's feasable), we can reduce our foreign oil imports.
Maybe the best thing that can happen to America right now is higher oil prices. Only with higher prices will Americans cut back on their oil usage. More importantly, higher oil prices will provide the necessary economic pressure to develop not only domestic oil production but also alternative forms of energy. We have the basic technology in place for solar heating, hydrogen fuel cells and other forms of energy production. All that is holding these technologies back is the low price of oil. Why invest in solar power when oil is so cheap and plentiful?
The United States has long been known for its inventiveness and ingenuity. I'm sure we will be amazed by just how fast we respond to a full-blown energy crisis with new energy sources and technologies.
Surely a regime such as this would distribute its billions among the oppressed masses of the Middle East.
I dunno.
Can we do without wasting energy?
I don't know where these people are getting their information, but the American Petroleum Institute says the United States has about a 70 year domestic oil reserve, and proven reserves of American oil are increasing each year, not declining. North America, including Canada and Mexico, has about a 200 year oil reserve. This war is about terrorism, not oil.
The world now has about an 805 year oil supply.
American Petroleum Institute.
For the webTVers:
http://www.api.org/edu/factsoil.htm