Prices are not going to be anything like curent prices for very long. So spending the money on a processing capability to recover reserves from oil shale and sand is likely to be a wise investment right now. Another remedy that the author may not be aware of is a process in the testing phase for a new type of tertiary treatment that involves pumping natural gas steam under high pressures into existing depleated formations. As everyone knows, with the maximum treatment previously available, we only recovered about 50% of the reserves before we abandoned production. So as many reserves as have been recovered in the US are now available to recover again, given a sufficient commitment of capital and other resources.
However these are very high risk economic activities. Long term, twenty or thirty years out, the world is in fact awash in oil from the Caspian Sea and the Middle East. New technologies are close that will provide great substitutes for hydrocarbons.
The reasons the Major Oil Companies have left the United States are tax policy and political climate. Domestic energy is no longer an attractive economic activity except for small producers who can focus on Natural Gas.
There needs to be an economic incentive to the developers of these resources that does not depend on the short term tax whims of the US Congress.
In almost any event, you can plan on $5.00 at the pump in the not far distant future if we are very lucky--$17.50 if we are not.
You can plan on me just passing the cost right on through to my customers. (trucking co)
You base this prediction on what?
I think this threat is what's keeping oil prices below $30.