Posted on 08/06/2026 8:45:02 PM PDT by poconopundit
The maximalists wanted regime change, the minimalists wanted nothing, and the doubters see only waffling. Carafano’s answer: the victor gets to define victory — and everywhere you look, the region is moving Trump’s way.
Iran War Turns into Trump Middle East Triumph: We are about to see the biggest reshaping of the Middle East since Moses led the Jews out of Egypt.
Like the pharaoh, who missed every warning sign up to the parting of the Red Sea, the critics and questioners of Trump’s tug-of-war with what’s left of the Iran regime seem obtuse to the prophetic truth that the region will never be the same again—in a good way.
_________
Author: Dr. James Jay Carafano is a national security expert and a 25-year Army veteran. His most recent books are Cold Combat: Mountain Warfare in Italy and the Battle of San Pietro, 1943, and Digital Dominance: Winning in a Socially Networked World. He is a 19FortyFive Contributing Editor.
(Excerpt) Read more at 19fortyfive.com ...
How dumb can you get?
We supply information here.....what you do with it is your option.
Got it?
4 AM
The way you present it has us just skipping over it, it does look like “like dollar store AI cr@p!” rather than a post worth reading, it resembles cut and paste spam rather than your thoughtful input, so, we scroll past it.
Summary of “Donald Trump Won the Iran War” by James Jay Carafano (19FortyFive, August 2026):
Thanks!
The war will end when the US is out of missiles and Iran is rebuilding its nuclear program and dictating terms of the Hormuz Strait. Yes there will be more pipelines and Europe will be supplied with LNG from the US but that is still a few years to feasibility as is replenishing our weapons stockpile.
Pretty good analogy.
I’ll ask again, Liz Cheney, is that you?
We can declare Victory when the forst Trump golf course is built in Tehran.
Alahwahoo Underparbar !
I've said before that this is the most under-stated, ignored, or intentionally misapplied piece of President Trump's approach.
Trump knows that if he bombs the power plants, that will lead to a humanitarian disaster. It's what, 110° F in the desert? With no electricity to run air conditioning and no water if the desalination plants have no power, people will start dying on large scales.
The propaganda that would result from that? Trump is a warmonger. Trump is a mass-murderer. Trump committed genocide.
So President Trump must keep the civilian power grid functioning while trying to take out the IRGC's remaining military capability and strangling Iran's economy.
And that's what he's doing: he's still blockading the Strait of Hormuz to prevent Iran from selling oil or receiving consumer goods. He's still attacking their military each time they expose a hidden rocket launcher or speedboat. And he's still destroying bridges and other resupply lines from the interior.
-PJ
Technology is working against us. AI and other advancements are making nuclear weapons and missiles more accessible. There are no easy solutions, but it just makes pure rational sense to choke out the "Death to America" Shia cult while we can. Iran is just the host animal. It should be partitioned. A house divided cannot stand.
i’m sure there are many oppressed souls in Tehran that would love to build it, own it and play it!
It is important analysis and people should read the whole thing to get a sense of the process that is taking place, ignore the idea of having won yet, or lost yet, whether a person will approve of how the war ends when it it ends depends on personal ideas with that person, but this article should be read completely to get a sense of what is going on below the surface and strategically, serious gains are being made with the situation of the Middle East, huge gains.
“Underparbar”
That’s funny.
Thanks, Political Junkie.
Golf could win the Gulf war.
Make it the Tehran DP series.Trump wins.


| Talk about dollar store AI cr@p. Your criticism of a respected FReeper is a low class attack on a FReeper who has dedicated enormous time and effort educating Free Republic readers on significant issues. Liz is connected to high-level intelligence watchdog organizations. If you have a beef, send her a private email. |
Better yet, when does our equipment move back to the surrounding bases we vacated because we couldn't protect.
* * * *
Yes, nicely stated. I recognized the story is a "FReeper must read" and even betters Victor Davis Hansen's analysis of the Iran war subject.
This is the reason I posted the story, something I haven't done in a few years.
James Jay Carafano argues that, by his definition of “winning,” Donald Trump has effectively “won” the Iran conflict and set the conditions for a major reshaping of the Middle East.
He frames the critics as either wanting maximal regime change, preferring total inaction, or fixating on perceived “waffling,” but says the central issue is that a leader’s success should be judged by a war-winning “theory of victory,” not by opponents’ preferred endgame.
Carafano’s theory is that Trump’s goal was to reduce Iran’s ability to destabilize the region enough to enable long-term deterrence and regional collective security—so the real test of victory is whether the emerging regional order (partnerships, reconstruction efforts, economic resilience, and security cooperation) is actually growing.
He points to:
(1) lessened Iranian ability to threaten global oil flow and energy “hostage” dynamics,
(2) steps he says would support reconstruction in Gaza (including disarmament/disengagement-related frameworks and normalization work involving Syria and neighbors), and
(3) accelerating regional economic integration and security cooperation—such as U.S.-Iraq economic initiatives, pushes for regional economic corridors, and actions to counter Iran-backed militias alongside broader maritime and defense coordination.
He concludes that these developments are presented as evidence not of defeat, but of increased U.S. influence and momentum toward the long-term regional framework he attributes to Trump; therefore, historians will ultimately view Trump as having been highly consequential in reshaping the Middle East.
Assessments of Trump’s actions often depend on whether it prioritizes an “America First”
strategy of avoiding foreign entanglements, Trump’s longheld political position.
It’s been postulated that Arab nations have asked Trump to “negotiate” w/ Iran.
An even better insight is what did our “greatest Mideast ally Israel” ———recipient of some $300 billion US tax dollars, to date-———ask Trump to do wrt the recalcitrant Iran
Not asking for immediate “negotiations,” no.
Israel’s stated goal has been to continue joint operations.......financed by the US taxpayer....... until Iran’s state capabilities are permanently dismantled, or the current Iranian leadership is transformed. -—— NBC4 Washington
Key Israeli requests to the U.S. have included:
Destroying Key Sites: Via the initial bombardments, Israel specifically wanted the destruction of Iran’s underground facilities like the Fordo nuclear site, which Israel knew was beyond its unilateral military capabilities. -—— The Times of Israel
But that did not happen despite some outward damage.
Targeting Economy and Regime: Israel urged the US to focus airstrikes on targets tied to the Iranian economy and leadership, rather than just focusing on land resupply routes. -——CBS News
Avoiding Early Ceasefires: Israel has expressed concern wrt Trump’s diplomatic pauses and premature ceasefires.——— YouTube ·Times Of India
Despite Israel’s push for continued military pressure, President Trump has increasingly leaned toward diplomacy, pausing planned strikes to pursue a negotiated deal—which includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz and addressing Iran’s nuclear program. -—— Fox News
A strategy of active, military intervention in the Middle East appears to be exclusive to Israel.
You can track the ongoing discussions on the “Al Jazeera Iran War Live Blog” or read more about the Israeli strategy on ABC News.
Btw, US public opinion appears to prioritize “America First” goals.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.