Posted on 05/11/2026 10:29:24 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
On May 4, the organizers of the Alberta Independence Movement announced they had accrued a massive number of signatures, well in excess of the required number to submit their petition to trigger an independence referendum.
They needed 177,732.
🚨 BREAKING: 301,620 signatures have officially been announced for the Alberta independence petition.
That is far beyond the required threshold to trigger the Alberta independence vote on October 19th.
A massive day for the Alberta Independence movement.
pic.twitter.com/RbeIDkNf7e— Rise Of Alberta (@RiseOfAlberta) May 4, 2026
Classically, it ain't over 'til it's over, and even getting the referendum on an October ballot is a dogfight.
Just because you followed the rules and have the petition signatures required, doesn't mean that seventy different groups can't take you to court over it, because they don't want the possibility of 'leave' even being an option.' Which is exactly what's happened.
First in line were the 'constitutionalists.'
The current petition by Stay Free Alberta, submitted by organization leader Mitch Sylvestre, is actually the second one spearheaded by the group.
The group’s first petition was referred to court last July by chief electoral officer Gordon McClure, who was seeking a ruling on whether it violated the Constitution. In December, Court of King’s Bench Justice Colin Feasby ruled that separatism couldn’t be pursued under the provincial Citizen Initiative Act — partly because of Constitutional concerns and partly because it could violate First Nations' treaty rights.
The current Alberta government, led by United Conservative Party (UCP) Premier Danielle Smith, whipped up some quick changes that neutralized that court challenge.
The First Nations were second in line to file lawsuits, and an injunction in that case has left the entire petition process in limbo at the moment
...That second petition was also taken to court, this time by First Nations who argued provincial separation would be unconstitutional on the grounds that it would violate treaties negotiated with the Crown.
Court of King’s Bench Justice Shaina Leonard issued an interim injunction in April blocking Elections Alberta from verifying the collected signatures until she issues a final ruling.
What people are finding interesting about the First Nations' objections to independence is that it is beginning to appear as if the chiefs are speaking for themselves, rather than asking tribe members how they feel about Alberta leaving the choking Canadian fold.
POLL: Nearly half of First Nations voters in Alberta back independence
A poll commissioned by For Alberta, which found 46% of First Nations respondents would support independence if a referendum were held on the matter.For months, we’ve been told Alberta independence is fringe. That Indigenous people oppose it. That claim is doing a lot of work right now, especially in court.
And then this lands: Nearly half of indigenous voters support independence. Someone tell the activist chiefs — the narrative just blew apart.
According to exclusive polling commissioned by Act For Alberta, and full disclosure, I’m the listed contact for that third-party advertiser, 46% of First Nations respondents say they would vote to leave Canada.
Nearly half. That's higher than support in the general Alberta population, which sits at one in three.
That alone should force a rethink. Now layer this on top: 301,000 signatures, collected by 7,000 volunteers. In a long, bitterly cold Alberta winter. And what happens next?
They don’t get verified. Not counted. Not certified.
They're stopped, wrapped in evidence tape like some crime scene because a judge has issued a stay blocking the validation process while a legal challenge from First Nations groups plays out.
So, line this up.
Nearly half of First Nations respondents are open to independence. But activist chiefs claiming to speak for all Indigenous Albertans want to protect the failing federalist status quo, not just for their people, but for all of us.
Hundreds of thousands of Albertans signed a petition to at least ask the question.
And the activist chiefs involved in the lawsuit are asking the court to freeze the process before it reaches a result.
That’s the moment we’re in.
A political question with massive public engagement, halted before it could be measured.
There’s a gap here. Between what’s being argued in court by gatekeepers and what people are actually saying when you ask them directly.
And it is not a small gap.
Indigenous communities are not one voice. Albertans are not one voice. That is the whole point of a vote. Everyone gets their say on referendum day.
So, here’s the question that does not go away: if the answer is so obvious, why not let the process finish?
Why not count the signatures and drop the lawsuit? Why not let people speak?
Because once it becomes one person, one vote, the outcome is not controlled anymore, and the narrative is shattered for good.
@ActForAlberta found 46% of First Nations respondents said they'd vote to leave Canada in a referendum on independence.
Sheila Gunn Reid shares details from a poll commissioned by Act… pic.twitter.com/yoJzM9RNqL— Rebel News (@RebelNewsOnline) May 10, 2026
Rebel News got quite an education from a poll done of a wide swath of Alberta tribes. It turns out those folks are split nearly 50/50 on stay or go. Nothing like what their leaders in the First Nations' councils are stating.
This is why the Chiefs are pushing so hard to block a vote, through the courts, the legislature, and even with King Charles.
They know the First Nations people are also fed up.
After almost 150 years of trying to work with Ottawa, the only real chance of self-determination is is for Alberta to be independent.
https://t.co/dOsWnNrMMc— Jason Lavigne (@JasonLavigneAB) May 10, 2026
There has also been quibbling over the specifics of a referendum - it would take a two-thirds majority, as certain parties were suddenly insisting.
The House of Commons settled that.
HUGE: The House of Commons just confirmed it.
An Alberta independence referendum does not need 60% or 66%.
The threshold is 50% + 1.
A clear majority is enough to change everything. pic.twitter.com/QJeSYWXapO— Rise Of Alberta (@RiseOfAlberta) May 9, 2026
As well, the usual cries of 'foreign interference' and 'RUSSIA! RUSSIA! RUSSIA!' have been raised to smear and discredit the independence organizers.
That dog doesn't hunt anymore - it's too old and tired.
...I asked Premier Smith about how, during the Freedom Convoy, government-subsidized media outlets coordinated to discredit ordinary Canadians who were simply concerned about pandemic policies — and about how those very same outlets are now claiming that Russia is somehow influencing Alberta's independence movement.
I asked the Premier whether she sees this as another attempt to discredit grassroots movements, and whether she's concerned about the pattern of dismissing voices that advocate for freedom and democracy.
Premier Smith's answer was exactly what I needed to hear. She told me that Alberta has taken a different approach, one that respects medical choice and free speech, because Albertans are smart enough to weigh different viewpoints and reach their own conclusions. She also confirmed that her public safety minister has been in contact with the RCMP, and that the RCMP stated in the legislature last week that there is no credible evidence of any state actors interfering in Alberta policy.
Danielle Smith says there is no credible evidence of state actor interference in Alberta politics.
So why are people still pushing the false narrative that Alberta independence is foreign-backed? pic.twitter.com/CzpkhHCu3U— Rise Of Alberta (@RiseOfAlberta) May 9, 2026
Even with the petition verification hanging up - as opponents meant it to be - there is still a workaround to get the issue onto the October ballot.
...Not necessarily. The April 10 injunction essentially put a temporary freeze on the citizen initiative process. Even though signatures were still allowed to be collected, the ruling prohibits the chief electoral officer from undertaking the necessary work to validate the signatures and certify the petition.
But the Citizen Initiative Act isn’t the only way to get Alberta’s separation from Canada onto a ballot — the other is through the Referendum Act.
Under that option, the premier could simply add that question to the list of nine others that will be put to voters on Oct. 19. This could happen even if the petition is not certified.
The provincial government has not ruled out any options.
In a statement to CBC News on Thursday, Justice Minister Mickey Amery said the province is waiting for Leonard’s decision and, potentially, the verification process by Elections Alberta.
In its official statements, the government officially remains a 'Canadian' government,
...“Our government has been clear: we support a strong and sovereign Alberta within a united Canada,” said Amery.
“This means Alberta remaining a province of Canada while advancing provincial autonomy and fighting to undo Ottawa policies that harm Albertans and intrude on our constitutional rights.”
Peter St Onge had some great thoughts about the independence movement and some really interesting facts about Alberta's economic heft to go along with that.
The most conservative province in Canada is the equivalent of the best surfer in Kansas. I hope they go independent, but I do not see them joining the US.— (((Road Bear Life))) (@bearshrugged) May 11, 2026
He was great right up to where he dove straight into statehood for them if they should ever break free.
Count me as a 'no' on that.
The Albertans also have to get past the determined remainers right now, who have the majority of the votes, according to polling. That's all if they break loose of the legal encumberments being wrapped around the ballot issue.
The organizers are reaching out to tribe members, which is a good thing. Smart to get those folks onboard independently of their official union bosses.
And the Canadian Prime Minister is sure not making himself any fans in the province, either, so that is certainly helping the independence cause.
🚨 Carney just went full globalist on stage in Toronto.
Praising Obama for demanding “NEW INSTITUTIONS” because the old “rules-based order” no longer works.
“Nostalgia is not a strategy,” he says. “We have to take the sign down and build anew.”
Translation: Scrap Canada’s… pic.twitter.com/0JxYl3JiHw— JayGen 𝕏 er🇨🇦 (@JayGenXer) May 10, 2026
...Translation: Scrap Canada’s institutions, sovereignty, and borders for whatever shiny new globalist experiment the Davos crowd cooks up next.
While families can’t afford groceries, housing collapses, and youth unemployment explodes — Carney’s busy reimagining the world with Obama.
This isn’t leadership.
It’s betrayal with a Canadian accent.
Globalists. It's what they do, and it's what Canada's got.
They'll have to decide how much they can stand.
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It’s a very nice effort, but I don’t think it will succeed.
According to this poll from Pollara Strategic Insights (Mar 2026):
27% would vote to separate; up to 42% “in play” if including protest voters.
Still, a clear majority remains attached to Canada.
SEE HERE:
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/support-alberta-separatism-5-high-204545772.html
And there’s the Prediction Markets.
Prediction markets are not polls, but they reflect what traders believe will happen.
Polymarket:
“Will Alberta vote for independence in 2025?”
<1% chance (market resolved “No”).
“Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?”
~16% chance of “Yes.”
Kalshi:
“Will Alberta vote to secede from Canada?”
~19% chance of “Yes.”
So, based on these, The realistic chance of Alberta voting for independence in the next referendum is:
≈ 15–30% probability of a “Yes” outcome.
French-Speaking Quebec had a better chance before, it was close but still, no cigar.
Four Strong Winds
Song by Ian Tyson ‧ 1989
Trump should call out for Quebec independence in his role as disturber of the excrement. Alberta will pile on and the whole country will be in turmoil, the good and necessary kind. Ontario and Quebec could make it on their own. We give them Detroit and New England as our POTUS is into real estate. If Czechoslovakia and the Yugo country can divy itself up perhaps we can learn from them.
INB4 the government claims that “Most of these signatures are invalid, fake, used the wrong ink color, crossed the line inappropriately”, etc.
Or Ottawa simply says “No”
Fun fact: Alberta has no rats.
I like the idea of Trump acting as disrupter with Quebec. That fool Carney wants Canada to join the EU, that much is clear. We need to stop such a move.
Planting seeds.
Goldwater planted the seed in ‘64 for a Reagan victory 16 years later. A non-victory in Alberta is the equivalent of throwing the proverbial spaghetti on the wall to see if it sticks.
They could have a status like that of Newfoundland before 1949--still part of the British Commonwealth with King Charles III as their sovereign but independent of Ottawa.
It is a long shot. What will be interesting is the massive misinformation that will launched against Alberta once the separation campaign begins. I’ve already seen some of it on X, people posting “facts” like Albertans are the most misinformed Canadians. It will be absolutely disgusting. Maple Maga will be thrown around even more than it is now.
Carney says no. Gotta have guns in Alberta, enough of Ottawa’s BS. It is similar in scope to Iran. Same actions from the top.
Some things should be forced on people. One-third of the colonials supported independence. Puerto Rico has no business becoming a state. They’re too scared of independence. Another third of our people wanted to stay with the king. American Samoa is a short ferry ride from Samoa. Same people different country. For them(and PR) it’s about the Benjamins. If New England had self determination would they go for the free health care Canada offers and the self suicide? How all doctors advise that as part of their job makes one realize why everyone wants to come here where life is more precious.
Good luck Alberta...God bless.
It takes a third ..33% can sit on the side lines,33% can be wildly anti...its entirely possible to get it done ..
Next year’s news headline:
Alberta Joins The U.S. ‘Leftover’ Canada Joins The EU.
Maybe not, but I respect that they are trying. Ottawa will probably say, "Nyet".
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