Polls are ‘underestimating’ turnout for Kamala Harris, Allan Lichtman argues

Washington Examiner ^ | 10.17.2024 | Peter Cordi

[libh8er]

Presidential historian Allan Lichtman believes the current polls showing Vice President Kamala Harris sliding against former President Donald Trump are “underestimating Democratic voting strength.”

During a Wednesday YouTube livestream, the American University professor, who has predicted Harris would beat Trump in November, suggested that reports of Democrats pulling ahead in mail-in voting in certain states bode well for them. However, Democrats already made up the majority of mail-in voters, and Republicans have reportedly increased their relative shares in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina.

“The polls in 2016 underestimated Republican voting strength,” Lichtman said. “It’s my view based on what I saw from 2022-2024 that the polls are now underestimating Democratic voting strength.”

Lichtman pointed to the special election to replace disgraced former House Republican George Santos in New York, noting “the Democrat outperformed the poll right before the election by seven points.”

Santos pled guilty to charges related to campaign fraud in August.

“Even if the polls are off by a point or two, the Democrats are going to do a point or two better than the polls — they will sweep Pennsylvania,” Lichtman declared.

[Owen]

The experts are leaning on experience, and that experience is rendered useless this year because of —

Independents. Surveys have them over 40%. That’s surveys, plural.

GOP issues are meaningless, as are Dem issues.

Only Independent issues matter and they are looking for upheaval.

[Andy'smom]

I can’t stand that guy.He gets almost hysterical if someone questions his methodology.

[Sacajaweau]

I’m afraid that’s what my gut tells me, too.

[MayflowerMadam]

“underestimating Democratic voting strength.”

Underestimating Democrat cheating strength.

[PermaRag]

That special election in one House district 8 months ago means nothing now (though he’s right about the Republican underachieving, as also happened in that Ohio special election), and this guy is just a liberal schmuck.

....yet there’s a significant chance that he’s not wrong about PA.

Democrats may go +1 in the U.S. House delegation (Scott Perry on the chopping block), Casey is likely to hold on maybe even easier than expected in the Senate; Rats may take over the state Senate by picking up the 3 seats they need (that’s about a 50-50 proposition at ths point) and may sweep the state row offices (A.G. is practically a lock, auditor and treasurer less so).

Then there’s the little matter of the presidential election, which the whistling-past-the-graveyard types insist is somehow in the bag for Trump in PA, which is hardly the case. PA will be VERY close and Trump may win (he damn well better) but not by nearly enough to have any significant coattails in PA.

With all that said, Lichtman is still a schmuck who’s just trying to kiss up to his ultra-liberal media colleagues.

[bigbob]

Front hole

[IllumiNaughtyByNature]

This is what they’ll point to when the flood of fake ballots come pouring in.

[Gil4]

You better believe it. Those ballot boxes will be good and stuffed.

Yep. They will have 300% turnout in Philly.

[Rdct29]

He's a dumb presidential historian if he can't see how inept Kamala Harris is. Candice Owens also just blew Kamalas fake black heritage out of the water. This woman is so fraudulent that she posted a picture of a black lady in her book claiming she was her grandmother. Turns out it wasn't her grandmother because her grandmother was Irish and white. This is a huge scandal that the media has ignored so far. The mainstream media should have dug this story up but they want to bury it. Candice found out the truth with her tiny staff of 4 people. The corrupt media should bury its head in the sand permanently.

[struggle]

Rs are up considerably in early voting in places like AZ so we could be witnessing a trump blowout. I early voted in NC today and it was all elderly whites and there were MANY.

[OHPatriot]

Illegals + Cemetery = 90-100 Million “votes.”

[Sarah Barracuda]

EVERYTHING about Kamala Harris is a damn lie..its no wonder her father never comes out to say anything..doesn’t anyone find it weird, that Trump mentions her father non stop and her daddy never comes out and says anything about what Trump says..not a peep

[frank ballenger]

Dems have never been underestimated in polls since I’ve been alive (78 years).
New York Review of Books last issue had a good article on polls including the first Gallup ones including the old man’s picture.

I do not believe anyone fears having nonviolent conservatives pounce on them for saying they are a Democrat. The other way around is true.

[HamiltonJay]

Hahahah. Yea comparing a special election for a disgraced Republican to be voted out is an indication of general turnout models for a presidential election…

This guys an idiot or a liar or both

[j.havenfarm]

Our enemies are cunning, ruthless, utterly lacking in scruples, determined to gain and hold power at any cost.

But they’re also generally stupid, thank the Lord, or we’d really be screwed. I don’t think there’s any nefarious purpose to this statement, e.g., covering for an attempted steal. They’re not that subtle. Rather, Lichtman has laid down his marker on this election. He’ll lose his credibility if Trump is elected, but he working at this point on staving off the day of reckoning.

Mind you, I am absoutely not overconfident. But I am confident that he’s just whistling past the graveyard. Democrats were light years ahead las time in mail in/ early voting, and that they’re behind, neck and neck, or a little ahead in the respective states is very ominous for them

[Veto!]

Slo Joe Bidenskyyyyy is perfect name. How about Kamalalenskyyy too?

[El Cid]

Yeah, she has the illegal invader and dead demographics sewn up. Its hard for normal citizens to accurately project those numbers.

[gw-ington]

American University professor Allan Lichtman is wrong and provides no evidence to support his claim. Republicans are underpolled, not Democrats. It's been happening since 2016. Why? Because the constant badgering of Trump & Trump voters by frantic Democrats is so widespread that Republican voters feel reluctant to publicly say they're voting for Trump. So when Trump supporters receive postcards or phone calls requesting Presidential Poll participation, many don't respond. Democrats tend to be loud about their voting preferences. Republicans are usually quiet about it because they don't want to hear any nonsense from loud-mouthed fanatical Democrats.

Professor Lichtman has no clue what he's talking about. He (and other prominent Democrats including James Carville, Maxine Waters, etc.) are pretending to be confident about a kamaLa win (to keep Democrat spirits up). Instead, look at the actual evidence, look at the polls ... they're slowly, steadily heading in Trump's direction. Here's actual proof/evidence:

RCP Poll Average (on this day in Presidential Election history)
2024: Harris +1.5% lead
2020: Biden +9.0% lead (Biden electoral 305-225 edge)
2016: Hillary +7.0% lead (Trump electoral 305-225 edge)
Note: For kamaLa to stand a chance, she should be up around +8.0% at this late stage. But she's only up +1.5% (and that popular-vote advantage continues slowing dropping on an almost daily basis). Trump will win (unless an asteroid hits Earth in the next 19 days).

But don't get complacent. Get off your butt and vote. And tell as many people as you know to vote for Trump, either early in-person voting, vote-by-mail, or on Election Day. Let's give President Trump a huge Presidential mandate.

Vote Trump/Vance 2024!

Make America Great Again!

[A_Former_Democrat]

This “historian is obviously talking about the cheat vote

[lightman]

Pennsylvania Ping!

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