Election Home Stretch -- What do the Polls Say?

American Thinker ^ | 09/09/2024 | Brian C. Joondeph

[SeekAndFind]

The presidential election is heating up as both nominating conventions have concluded.

As we approach the home stretch of the election season, it's important to take a closer look at the opinion polls.

Where are the opinion polls now and what if anything can be inferred?

It's essential to remember that polls are a snapshot in time. They survey a small group of individuals and then extrapolate those results to the entire population, in this case, actual voters.

The surveyed sample is crucial, as oversampling Republicans, Democrats, or Independents can skew the results. While statistical weighting can help even out a skewed sample, the ultimate survey occurs on election day, on Nov. 5.

Rasmussen Reports is a respected pollster that surveys likely voters rather than simply registered voters or anyone who responds to the survey. They recently conducted polling in battleground states, which is more revealing than national polling, as the U.S. presidential election is 50 separate state elections based on the Electoral College.

Winning the national popular vote doesn’t always translate to winning the election as Hillary Clinton learned in 2016.

According to Rasmussen Reports, a recent survey in battleground states revealed a tight race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. The survey showed, “If the election were held today, 48% of likely voters in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin would vote for Trump, while 47% would vote for Harris.”

It's hard to predict the outcome at this point. There are still a few months until the election, and there will likely be at least one October surprise. What are the key issues concerning voters?

It is reminiscent of when Bill Clinton challenged George H.W. Bush in 1992, and the campaign mantra was, “It's the economy, stupid!”

[SeekAndFind]

Surprisingly illegal immigration and the border fall far behind the economy in terms of issues of concern. That may change as news of Venezuelan gangs taking over apartment buildings in Aurora Colorado, Chicago, Dallas, and New York City makes headlines. Many other cities likely have or will face the same.

Thirty-five percent (35%) of battleground state voters say the economy is the most important issue for them, followed by border security (17%) and abortion (13%).

Can someone explain to me why a large number of people are concerned about abortion? Honestly, do people really think about it all the time the way they think about bread and butter issues?

[Red Badger]

[ClearCase_guy]

If the voters have any say in the matter, Trump will win in a landslide.

But I’m not sure voters play a role in our current electoral process.

[SeekAndFind]

RE: But I’m not sure voters play a role in our current electoral process.

What plays the major role then?

[Red Badger]

I hope and pray that any ‘cheating’ by anybody will become suddenly so obvious as to make the cheaters and their cronies persona non grata for the rest of the century....................

[caww]

As stated.....”polls are a snapshot in time. They survey a small group of individuals and then extrapolate those results to the entire population”......

Still a guessing game.....polls are unreliable for the most part.

[Red Badger]

[Avalon Memories]

...as the U.S. presidential election is 50 separate state elections based on the Electoral College.

This is incorrect. The presidential election is based on state sovereignty. The Electoral College system is intended to protect state sovereignty and even out the disparity between large and small states. Heck, these days the disparity is between large population centers vs. their own lower population counties and the rest of the country.

[JayGalt]

The election fraud industry.

[Georgia Girl 2]

The polls are scewed to show a tight race so the steal won’t look so obvious.

[Persevero]

I think illegal immigration and border control are contained in the issue of the economy. Trump makes a good articulate case for the devastation that inverted illegal immigrants due to our economy.

[buckalfa]

The great disconnect?

The polls consistently show 60% plus feel the nation is on the wrong track. Yet 50% plus hold an unfavorable view of Donald Trump.

So since the palace coup against Biden, have Democrats been successful in making the election a referendum about Trump? Is this a Seinfeld situation? A show about nothing?

[Jeff Chandler]

"It's the stupid economy."

[woodbutcher1963]

Dems/liberals care about abortion.

I was speaking to one of the candidates for NH2 Congress last week. The poll they did in NH said that the Republicans and Independents biggest issues were the economy and immigration.
The Dems/liberals cared about abortion and climate change.

FYI, the one issue that he said Republicans and Independents absolute agreed on were NOT allowing Trans people in sports and their children’s bathrooms. That the two main candidates on the Dem side could NOT define what a woman is. That it is a campaign issue that would unite the Rep/Ind and they could hammer the Dems with.

[Political Junkie Too]

RealClearPolitics just published the most recent Harvard-HarrisX poll today that has the election tied.

The fact that we're now 60 days from the election and they are still putting out "Registered Voters" instead of "Likely Voters" tells me A LOT about what the real polls are saying.

-PJ

[GodBlesBush]

Those man on the street interviews that show 20-30 year olds prefer Kamalot but don’t know why and don’t know any of her policies are likely registered voters but they won’t vote. That age group only has about 10% turnout.

[goodolemr]

The only two inflection points left are people seeing Harris in the debates and a Oct suprise

[ballplayer]

Illegal Aliens

[Political Junkie Too]

RCP just published a poll by Pew Research. Another tie, another poll of Registered Voters.

-PJ