It Looks Like the DNC Is Backfiring on Kamala Harris

PJ Media ^ | 08/21/2024 | Matt Margolis

[SeekAndFind]

When Kamala Harris became the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party, it undoubtedly caused a jolt of enthusiasm for her party, which had been looking at a landslide defeat with Joe Biden on top of the ticket. She took the lead in the polls as well as in the political markets.

Harris had as much as a seven-point lead in Polymarket in the days leading up to the Democratic National Convention. Between the wall-to-wall glowing coverage from the media and the convention coverage, Harris would maintain that lead, if not expand on it.

However, the lead she had before the convention is gone. It's not only been wiped up, but as of the morning of the third day of the convention, Donald Trump has also regained the lead. By the second day of the convention, Trump had a one-point lead. As of this writing, he has taken a five-point Polymarket lead over Harris.

Harris had a 7-point lead in @Polymarket last week.

pic.twitter.com/64qbEPPPbD— Matt Margolis (@mattmargolis) August 21, 2024

Rich Baris, the director of Big Data Poll, found this to be an extraordinary shift, considering the timing.

Why are Donald Trump's odds of winning the presidential election getting better during the DNC?

That's so weird.— Rich Baris The People's Pundit (@Peoples_Pundit) August 20, 2024

It is an absolutely fair question to ask why this is happening during the week of Kamala's convention. A big part of it is that last week, Kamala unveiled her key economic agenda, and it was nothing short of a disaster, drawing criticism from both sides of the political spectrum.

[Political Junkie Too]

Do they give electoral college totals? With just the red and pink states, Trump doesn’t have the needed 270 votes. He could make it with the red, pink and tan states.

Here is my current map. Note that I still show New Jersey as in play since the two July polls are still the only ones out there. Also, a poll today (UNH) is showing that Maine CD-2 is trending back to blue.

-PJ

[Chickensoup]

Nationally democrats are sending letters and post cards to EV swing states to get them to vote DEM. This is ground troops that are all motivated.

[wintertime]

I call them DemoN-rats.

[OldGoatCPO]

PMSNBC will remain staunchly behind Harris, as will the formerly great media empires (CBS & ABC) which have exceeded their best if used by date for news coverage.

If Harris continues to run on nonsense, don't be surprised to see CNN move to more balanced coverage. Other than the “Morning Mika and her Cuckold Show,” we may even see other PMSNBC pundits move away from their 84% positive coverage of Harris.

[Verginius Rufus]

New Jersey in play? That seems overly optimistic. The last time it was close was 1992 when Clinton won by 80,000 votes (and Perot had more than half a million votes). But before that, 1968 to 1988, the Republican candidate won 6 times in a row.

[dennisw]

 

This was Poly market 13 hours ago  ------  Polymarket on X: "Trump’s lead in the odds just hit 7%. https://t.co/HddkW33YKz" / X

[Political Junkie Too]

I said I'm keeping New Jersey in play until the pollsters update their polls. I do think they are avoiding re-polling New Jersey for one of two reasons:

1. The pollsters are holding back polling in New Jersey because President Trump is doing better than expected there and the LAAP-dog media doesn't want that narrative out there.

2. They want to keep the public guessing. I would have assumed that Trump's internal pollster would have already polled New Jersey on their own. Since Trump hasn't released any NJ polls of his own, he's either keeping it from Harris or it shows NJ reverting back to blue.

Until then, I'm going with the published polls, as that is the premise of my model. I don't want to be accused of cherry-picking or biasing the data.

-PJ