Trump’s ‘the media fakes poll results’ attack makes no sense

Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), the Republican Party’s vice-presidential nominee, narrowed down his appearances on the Sunday political talk shows this weekend to just one: Fox News. Perhaps this was because his multiple appearances a week ago had him trying to defend his running mate Donald Trump’s past engagement with a notorious antisemite; perhaps it was because he is viewed broadly negatively, including faring relatively poorly among Fox News’s central audience, Republicans.

Whatever the reason, the friendly environment allowed Vance to lean into claims that would have met more resistance elsewhere, like Trump’s long-standing insistence that every bad poll is (somehow) intentionally and dishonestly bad to (somehow) hurt him politically.

Vance was presented with The Washington Post’s new poll, conducted by Ipsos in partnership with ABC News, showing Vice President Kamala Harris with a 4-point lead nationally.

At first, Vance offered the standard politician’s response: it’s still early, we just have to run our campaign, polls are often off the mark. But then he came back to the point repeatedly offered by the campaign since Harris took over as the Democratic nominee: the polls are fake.

“Consistently, what you’ve seen in 2016 and 2020 is that the media uses fake polls to drive down Republican turnout and to create dissension and conflict with Republican voters,” he insisted to host Shannon Bream. “I’m telling you, every single person who’s watching this: the Trump campaign is in a very, very good spot. We’re going to win this race.”

Instead of addressing that claim at the outset — we'll get to it, don't worry — let's examine why it exists.

the media uses fake polls to drive down Republican turnout and to create dissension and conflict with Republican voters

Look at the recent CBS News/YouGov poll that I analyzed yesterday.

The sample in this poll is producing confusing results.
Blacks say they are doing financially the best of all groups.
Democrats say they have the most extra money to spend of all the groups.
Democrats have dismissed the border and immigration as a factor in the election.
Young voters say they have extra money to spend, despite student debt being a major administration issue.
Over-sampling of women and under-sampling of minorities are potentially skewing this poll's results.
Poll Demographics:
Party Affiliation (seems okay to me):
Democrat: 34.2%
Republican: 33.4%
Independent: 30.9%
Gender
Male: 47.4%
Female: 52.6%
I don't know why this isn't more even. Most polls have been +4 or +5 women over men. I suspect this is tilting the abortion result, the Harris favorable result, and the Trump unfavorable result.
Race
White: 72.0%
Black: 11.2%
Hispanic: 10.1%
Other: 6.7%
Based on other polls, CBS News/YouGov has been over-sampling white people by +5 to +7 versus other polls. This is diluting the impact of disaffected minorities.
Age
< 30: 15.4%
30-44: 22.9%
35-64: 35%
65+: 26.8%
I haven't been looking at age stratification across polls, so I don't know how aligned this distribution is. One question, though: is the 35-64 range the prime abortion cohort?
Now onto the questions...
Q2: How would you rate the condition of the national economy today?
Party ID Gender Race Age
Response All Dem Ind Rep Male Female White Black Hisp <30 30-44 35-64 65+
Very/Fairly Good 35% 65% 28% 13% 40% 35% 34% 49% 37% 45% 35% 32% 34%
Fairly/Very Bad 62% 30% 69% 86% 58% 64% 64% 46% 60% 50% 61% 65% 64%
Analysis: I'm not surprised at the Democrat response, but in what universe is the black population doing better than anyone else economically?
Q32: How would you describe your personal/household financial situation?
Party ID Gender Race Age
Response All Dem Ind Rep Male Female White Black Hisp <30 30-44 35-64 65+
I live comfortably and am able to save money 16% 22% 16% 11% 18% 14% 17% 13% 12% 18% 17% 14% 18%
I meet my basic expenses with a little left over for extras 33% 37% 31% 30% 36% 30% 34% 30% 31% 39% 33% 28% 34%
I have just enough to meet my basic expenses 33% 28% 34% 39% 31% 35% 32% 36% 35% 29% 29% 36% 35%
I don't have enough to meet my basic expenses 18% 13% 19% 20% 15% 21% 17% 21% 22% 13% 21% 22% 15%
Analysis:For the groups that say they are doing well financially:
Democrats are doing much better than Republicans and Independents.
The under-30 age group says they are able to save or have some money left over for extras. Isn't this the group that Democrats are targeting for college loan forgiveness?
Q5: If the 2024 presidential election were being held today between Kamala Harris, the Democrat, and Donald Trump, the Republican, who would you vote for?
Party ID Gender Race Age
Response All Dem Ind Rep Male Female White Black Hisp <30 30-44 35-64 65+
Kamala Harris 51% 98% 45% 5% 45% 56% 44% 82% 58% 64% 59% 47% 43%
Donald Trump 48% 2% 50% 94% 54% 44% 56% 17% 41% 35% 41% 52% 57%
Analysis:
As expected, women and young voters are voting for Harris, while men and seniors are voting for Trump.
Independents are breaking for Trump.
Minorities are breaking for Harris.
Q31: Factors in Vote for President
Party ID Gender Race Age
Response All Dem Ind Rep Male Female White Black Hisp <30 30-44 35-64 65+
Crime
Major factor 62% 48% 57% 81% 61% 63% 61% 73% 64% 52% 55% 64% 70%
Minor factor 30% 39% 34% 16% 29% 30% 30% 23% 28% 35% 34% 30% 24%
Not a factor 8% 13% 9% 3% 9% 7% 9% 4% 8% 13% 11% 6% 6%
Gun Policy
Major factor 58% 67% 51% 54% 54% 62% 56% 70% 62% 55% 57% 56% 63%
Minor factor 30% 27% 33% 31% 31% 29% 32% 21% 28% 33% 31% 31% 26%
Not a factor 12% 6% 16% 15% 15% 9% 12% 9% 9% 11% 12% 13% 11%
Abortion
Major factor 51% 74% 45% 35% 44% 58% 50% 59% 54% 58% 56% 46% 52%
Minor factor 28% 20% 34% 29% 30% 25% 27% 26% 29% 29% 29% 29% 24%
Not a factor 21% 6% 26% 31% 26% 17% 23% 15% 17% 13% 15% 25% 24%
Inflation
Major factor 76% 59% 77% 92% 75% 77% 75% 79% 79% 72% 74% 78% 76%
Minor factor 20% 33% 19% 6% 19% 20% 20% 16% 18% 23% 20% 18% 19%
Not a factor 4% 8% 4% 1% 6% 3% 5% 5% 3% 5% 6% 4% 4%
The Economy
Major factor 83% 59% 84% 95% 82% 84% 83% 87% 83% 78% 83% 84% 85%
Minor factor 15% 26% 13% 4% 15% 14% 15% 11% 16% 18% 15% 14% 13%
Not a factor 2% 3% 3% 1% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 4% 2% 2% 2%
The state of democracy
Major factor 74% 84% 71% 68% 72% 76% 74% 79% 72% 65% 70% 77% 78%
Minor factor 18% 13% 19% 22% 18% 18% 18% 15% 20% 26% 21% 15% 14%
Not a factor 8% 3% 10% 10% 10% 6% 8% 6% 8% 9% 9% 7% 8%
The U.S.-Mexico border
Major factor 56% 28% 55% 87% 60% 53% 60% 41% 54% 40% 46% 62% 66%
Minor factor 31% 50% 32% 10% 28% 34% 29% 43% 31% 39% 35% 28% 28%
Not a factor 13% 21% 13% 3% 12% 13% 11% 16% 15% 21% 18% 10% 6%
Analysis: In order of importance of Major Factor
The economy (83%)
Republicans stand out as making this their highest factor in the election.
Blacks are the second highest group that prioritize the economy. Note that they were the highest group that felt the economy was doing fairly good or very good.
The Democrats are the lowest group that ranks the economy as a major factor.
Inflation (76%)
As expected, practically all Republicans think inflation is a major issue, and Democrats as a group do not.
Interestingly, seniors in this poll are not more concerned about inflation than any other group.
The state of democracy (74%)
The Democrats have been pushing "democracy" as the highest issue, and as a group, Democrats rank this even higher than abortion?
The U.S.-Mexico border (56%)
This ranked 2nd from the bottom. Unbelievable to me.
The Democrats ranked the border as the least important issue to them. Democrats are protecting Harris's "border czar" accountability and responsibility by dismissing the border as an issue altogether.
Abortion (51%)
I'm surprised that abortion was ranked as the lowest factor in the election.
Otherwise, all the usual groups ranked abortion higher than the other groups in this category.
I chose not to detail the remaining factors:
Issues of race and diversity (39%)
The war between Israel and Hamas (37%)
Climate change (39%)
I think the "tell" was in four areas:
The "democracy" question
This is not a national issue. It's a Democrat party narrative, the "Trump's a dictator," or the Washington Post's "Democracy dies in darkness" nonsense; all while the Democrats nullified the entire 2024 primary that they orchestrated in the first place and installed their own candidate!
When crafting a model of anything, one has to be careful not to duplicate (or overweight) selection criteria. The fact that the "democracy" election factor was there at all (and that it ranked so highly overall and with Democrats) tells me that that the sample was overweighted with Democrats because only Democrats would react so strongly to that election factor.
Women
CBS/YouGov has been consistently overweighting women compared to other pollsters. That's having a significant impact on the abortion issue, as well as support for the first woman president.
The fact that abortion was ranked near the bottom of election factors despite having a +4 weighting of women in the sample tells me that something else is going on with this sample.
Minorities
The underweighting of minorities is showing up in the financial questions. That more African-Americans than any other group said the economy was very good or fairly good tells me that this sample missed a significant portion of that population.
Contrast that to the crime and guns questions where African-Americans overwhelmingly ranked them as issues. I would think that well-off African-Americans who are concerned about crime and guns would be natural Trump supporters, but Trump is only getting 17% of the black vote in this sample. That's way below what the consensus is for Trump's African-American support.
Young voters
18% of people under 30 said they lived comfortably and are saving money. Another 39% say they have some money left over for "extras."
This belies the Democrat message that they must defy the Supreme Court and forgive student loan debt. This is another sign that the poll sample is messed up or the LAAP-dog media is lying about the true nature of the issue.

	Party ID	Gender	Race	Age
Response	All	Dem	Ind	Rep	Male	Female	White	Black	Hisp	<30	30-44	35-64	65+
Very/Fairly Good	35%	65%	28%	13%	40%	35%	34%	49%	37%	45%	35%	32%	34%
Fairly/Very Bad	62%	30%	69%	86%	58%	64%	64%	46%	60%	50%	61%	65%	64%

	Party ID	Gender	Race	Age
Response	All	Dem	Ind	Rep	Male	Female	White	Black	Hisp	<30	30-44	35-64	65+
I live comfortably and am able to save money	16%	22%	16%	11%	18%	14%	17%	13%	12%	18%	17%	14%	18%
I meet my basic expenses with a little left over for extras	33%	37%	31%	30%	36%	30%	34%	30%	31%	39%	33%	28%	34%
I have just enough to meet my basic expenses	33%	28%	34%	39%	31%	35%	32%	36%	35%	29%	29%	36%	35%
I don't have enough to meet my basic expenses	18%	13%	19%	20%	15%	21%	17%	21%	22%	13%	21%	22%	15%

	Party ID	Gender	Race	Age
Response	All	Dem	Ind	Rep	Male	Female	White	Black	Hisp	<30	30-44	35-64	65+
Kamala Harris	51%	98%	45%	5%	45%	56%	44%	82%	58%	64%	59%	47%	43%
Donald Trump	48%	2%	50%	94%	54%	44%	56%	17%	41%	35%	41%	52%	57%

	Party ID	Gender	Race	Age
Response	All	Dem	Ind	Rep	Male	Female	White	Black	Hisp	<30	30-44	35-64	65+
Crime
Major factor	62%	48%	57%	81%	61%	63%	61%	73%	64%	52%	55%	64%	70%
Minor factor	30%	39%	34%	16%	29%	30%	30%	23%	28%	35%	34%	30%	24%
Not a factor	8%	13%	9%	3%	9%	7%	9%	4%	8%	13%	11%	6%	6%
Gun Policy
Major factor	58%	67%	51%	54%	54%	62%	56%	70%	62%	55%	57%	56%	63%
Minor factor	30%	27%	33%	31%	31%	29%	32%	21%	28%	33%	31%	31%	26%
Not a factor	12%	6%	16%	15%	15%	9%	12%	9%	9%	11%	12%	13%	11%
Abortion
Major factor	51%	74%	45%	35%	44%	58%	50%	59%	54%	58%	56%	46%	52%
Minor factor	28%	20%	34%	29%	30%	25%	27%	26%	29%	29%	29%	29%	24%
Not a factor	21%	6%	26%	31%	26%	17%	23%	15%	17%	13%	15%	25%	24%
Inflation
Major factor	76%	59%	77%	92%	75%	77%	75%	79%	79%	72%	74%	78%	76%
Minor factor	20%	33%	19%	6%	19%	20%	20%	16%	18%	23%	20%	18%	19%
Not a factor	4%	8%	4%	1%	6%	3%	5%	5%	3%	5%	6%	4%	4%
The Economy
Major factor	83%	59%	84%	95%	82%	84%	83%	87%	83%	78%	83%	84%	85%
Minor factor	15%	26%	13%	4%	15%	14%	15%	11%	16%	18%	15%	14%	13%
Not a factor	2%	3%	3%	1%	3%	2%	2%	2%	1%	4%	2%	2%	2%
The state of democracy
Major factor	74%	84%	71%	68%	72%	76%	74%	79%	72%	65%	70%	77%	78%
Minor factor	18%	13%	19%	22%	18%	18%	18%	15%	20%	26%	21%	15%	14%
Not a factor	8%	3%	10%	10%	10%	6%	8%	6%	8%	9%	9%	7%	8%
The U.S.-Mexico border
Major factor	56%	28%	55%	87%	60%	53%	60%	41%	54%	40%	46%	62%	66%
Minor factor	31%	50%	32%	10%	28%	34%	29%	43%	31%	39%	35%	28%	28%
Not a factor	13%	21%	13%	3%	12%	13%	11%	16%	15%	21%	18%	10%	6%

-PJ

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.